MFG · bank / insurer · bank model (justified price-to-book)
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (MFG): Valuation Snapshot
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (MFG) is a bank, insurer or other financial, and a discounted-cash-flow model is the wrong lens for one, so TickerWorth does not publish a DCF fair value for it. Its bank model puts it at about $13.26 a share against $10.17. Snapshot as of Oct 19, 2026.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from public market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
How is a bank like MFG valued?
This is a bank / insurer / financial. A free-cash-flow DCF is structurally the wrong lens here (their debt and float are raw material, not financing), so we don't publish one. Instead we value it with a bank model — justified price-to-book, (ROE − g) ÷ (cost of equity − g), on a return on equity of 12.5% and a cost of equity of 7.0% — at about $13.26 a share ($10.85–$17.03 for a cost of equity one point either way), against a price of $10.16.
A dividend-discount cross-check gives about $4.09, shown as a reference only. Every input is listed with its source; it is a model estimate, not a price target.
Bank model (justified price-to-book)
Our bank model’s estimate: about $13.26 (range $10.85 to $17.03), against a price of $10.17. It is not a DCF and not a price target.
Value = book value per share × (ROE − g) ÷ (cost of equity − g). The range is for a cost of equity ±1% (6.0%–8.0%).
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Book value per share | $5.99 | yfinance, latest reported book value per share |
| Return on equity | 12.5% | yfinance, trailing twelve months |
| Risk-free rate | 5.1% | US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) |
| Beta | 0.40× | yfinance 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped from 0.39 to 0.4–2.5) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.7% | house equity risk premium (same as every DCF) |
| Cost of equity | 7.0% | computed — risk-free + beta × equity risk premium (CAPM) |
| Payout ratio | 24.9% | yfinance payout ratio (trailing dividends ÷ earnings) |
| Long-run growth | 2.5% | ESTIMATEROE × retention (9.4%), capped at the house long-run rate 2.5% |
| Justified price-to-book | 2.22× | computed — (ROE − g) ÷ (cost of equity − g) |
Dividend-discount cross-check: about $4.09, reference only — a low payout means most of the return comes from buybacks and retained growth, which a dividend model cannot see.
A model estimate from public data, with every input shown — not a price target and not advice. Bank returns on equity revert over time and this model holds today's for good.
When we tested this family of bank models on past data, none ranked banks better than plain price-to-book. Treat it as one formula's estimate, not a verdict.
What is MFG's TickerWorth Score?
Scores higher than almost every company we compare it with
Compared with Financial Services companies in US
Its strongest point: growing quickly.
- Value · 70 of 100
Cheaper than 70% of Financial Services companies in US
- Price vs worth · 84 of 100
- Quality · 61 of 100
More profitable than 61% of Financial Services companies in US
- Financial health · 80 of 100
Financially stronger than 80% of Financial Services companies in US
- Growth · 85 of 100
Growing faster than 85% of Financial Services companies in US
- Momentum · 75 of 100
Outperformed 75% of Financial Services companies in US over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
Get the Undervalued Company of the Week.
- Price
- $10.16
- Market cap
- $122,
715, 930, 624 - 52-week high
- $11.49
- 52-week low
- $6.37
- Currency
- USD
- Exchange
- NYSE
Snapshot of Oct 19, 2026, quote time not published · Prices are delayed.
What we can say
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (MFG) is a bank, insurer or other financial, and a free-cash-flow discounted-cash-flow (DCF) model is structurally the wrong lens for it: for these businesses debt and float are raw material, not financing. So we value it the way a bank is valued — on the return it earns on its book equity. Our bank model (justified price-to-book) puts it at about $13.26 a share, between $10.85 and $17.03 for a cost of equity one point either side of 7.0%, against $10.16 today.
Read the full reasoning
Every input is listed with its source. It is a model estimate, not a price target, and not investment advice.
On the numbers we do have, MFG trades at a recent price of $10.16, a market capitalisation of about $122,715,930,624, sitting 74% of the way up its 52-week range ($6.37–$11.49), on the NYSE.
The standard alternative to a DCF is relative valuation — comparing MFG's trading multiples against a sector benchmark. Here that gives P/E of 13.9× (in line with the peer median of 14.2×); Fwd P/E of 7.3× (cheaper than the peer median of 13.3×); P/B of 1.7× (cheaper than the peer median of 2.6×); P/S of 0.0× (cheaper than the peer median of 4.7×); Dividend yield of 1.8% (in line with the peer median of 1.9%). A cheaper multiple than peers can flag a discount or a market that expects weaker growth; it is a comparison, not a recommendation.
The asset, or book-value, lens is the classic tool for asset-heavy businesses and financials. MFG shows a price-to-book (P/B) of 1.70 and book value of $5.99 per share. Price-to-book compares the market price to the accounting net-asset value per share; below 1.0 can mean a discount to net assets or that the market is pricing in trouble — descriptive either way, never a buy signal on its own.
Finally, a price-based read — explicitly not a valuation. MFG is in a mixed trend, trading -11.5% from its 52-week high. Over the past year the stock is +57.2%. Moving-average trend and 52-week position describe where the stock has traded; they say nothing about what it is worth.
To be exact about what this page is not: we are not saying the numbers for MFG are unavailable. They are, and they are above. We are saying a discounted-cash-flow model is the wrong instrument for this kind of business, and publishing one anyway — because the inputs happen to exist — would be a precise answer to the wrong question. Refusing is the more useful answer, and it is the same rule we apply to every name in this category.
MFG vs peers
Sector benchmark (bellwethers, not direct competitors).
| Multiple | MFG | Peer median | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 13.9× | 14.2× | in line with |
| Fwd P/E | 7.3× | 13.3× | cheaper than |
| P/B | 1.7× | 2.6× | cheaper than |
| P/S | 0.0× | 4.7× | cheaper than |
| Dividend yield | 1.8% | 1.9% | in line with |
What does Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. do?
What does it do?
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in banking, trust banking, securities, and other businesses related to financial services in Japan, the Americas, Europe, Asia/Oceania, and internationally. The company offers finance solutions, including corporate, syndicated, acquisition, real estate, project, ECA, and other structured finance solutions; financing and advisory solutions for capital markets comprising debt, loan, and equity capital markets; corporate finance advisory services; treasury solutions that include deposit, cash management, and trade finance; and market solutions for foreign exchange, derivatives, futures, equities, and fixed income. It operates in the Banks - Regional industry (Financial Services sector), headquartered in Japan. The company employs roughly 52,427 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $4.7T in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $47 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 46.7%), after a 0% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 29.1% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks solid: is currently profitable.
Who at MFG filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akita Natsumi | See Remarks | Option exercise | — | Form 4 for Akita Natsumi (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Akita Natsumi | See Remarks | Disposition to issuer | $156,907,278.20 | Form 4 for Akita Natsumi (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Tsujimori Hideki | See Remarks | Option exercise | — | Form 4 for Tsujimori Hideki (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Tsujimori Hideki | See Remarks | Disposition to issuer | $13,324,784.54 | Form 4 for Tsujimori Hideki (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Shiraishi Shiro | Director, See Remarks | Option exercise | — | Form 4 for Shiraishi Shiro (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Shiraishi Shiro | Director, See Remarks | Disposition to issuer | $13,324,784.54 | Form 4 for Shiraishi Shiro (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Companies we do put a number on
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
A descriptive, available-data snapshot and relative comparison — NOT a DCF, NOT a price target, and NOT investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public market data that can be wrong, stale or incomplete.