PGR · bank / insurer · bank model (justified price-to-book)
The Progressive Corporation (PGR): Valuation Snapshot
The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is a bank, insurer or other financial, and a discounted-cash-flow model is the wrong lens for one, so TickerWorth does not publish a DCF fair value for it. Its bank model puts it at about $404.87 a share against $217.45. Snapshot as of Oct 19, 2026.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from public market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
How is a bank like PGR valued?
This is a bank / insurer / financial. A free-cash-flow DCF is structurally the wrong lens here (their debt and float are raw material, not financing), so we don't publish one. Instead we value it with a bank model — justified price-to-book, (ROE − g) ÷ (cost of equity − g), on a return on equity of 33.2% and a cost of equity of 7.0% — at about $404.87 a share ($331.50–$519.96 for a cost of equity one point either way), against a price of $217.45.
A dividend-discount cross-check gives about $9.07. Every input is listed with its source; it is a model estimate, not a price target.
Bank model (justified price-to-book)
Our bank model’s estimate: about $404.87 (range $331.50 to $519.96), against a price of $217.45. It is not a DCF and not a price target.
Value = book value per share × (ROE − g) ÷ (cost of equity − g). The range is for a cost of equity ±1% (6.0%–8.0%).
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Book value per share | $59.51 | yfinance, latest reported book value per share |
| Return on equity | 33.2% | yfinance, trailing twelve months |
| Risk-free rate | 5.1% | US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) |
| Beta | 0.40× | yfinance 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped from 0.23 to 0.4–2.5) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.7% | house equity risk premium (same as every DCF) |
| Cost of equity | 7.0% | computed — risk-free + beta × equity risk premium (CAPM) |
| Payout ratio | 69.7% | yfinance payout ratio (trailing dividends ÷ earnings) |
| Long-run growth | 2.5% | ESTIMATEROE × retention (10.1%), capped at the house long-run rate 2.5% |
| Justified price-to-book | 6.80× | computed — (ROE − g) ÷ (cost of equity − g) |
Dividend-discount cross-check: about $9.07.
A model estimate from public data, with every input shown — not a price target and not advice. Bank returns on equity revert over time and this model holds today's for good.
When we tested this family of bank models on past data, none ranked banks better than plain price-to-book. Treat it as one formula's estimate, not a verdict.
What is PGR's TickerWorth Score?
Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses
Compared with Financial Services companies in US
Its strongest point: trades below our estimate of what it's worth. Its weakest: growth is slow or negative.
- Value · 61 of 100
Cheaper than 61% of Financial Services companies in US
- Price vs worth · 100 of 100
- Quality · 34 of 100
More profitable than 34% of Financial Services companies in US
- Financial health · 39 of 100
Financially stronger than 39% of Financial Services companies in US
- Growth · 16 of 100
Growing faster than 16% of Financial Services companies in US
- Momentum · 65 of 100
Outperformed 65% of Financial Services companies in US over the past year
Confidence: High confidence · Scored
Get the Undervalued Company of the Week.
- Price
- $217.45
- Market cap
- $126,
207, 975, 424 - 52-week high
- $239.38
- 52-week low
- $189.20
- Currency
- USD
- Exchange
- NYSE
Snapshot of Oct 19, 2026, quote time not published · Prices are delayed.
What we can say
The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is a bank, insurer or other financial, and a free-cash-flow discounted-cash-flow (DCF) model is structurally the wrong lens for it: for these businesses debt and float are raw material, not financing. So we value it the way a bank is valued — on the return it earns on its book equity. Our bank model (justified price-to-book) puts it at about $404.87 a share, between $331.50 and $519.96 for a cost of equity one point either side of 7.0%, against $217.45 today.
Read the full reasoning
Every input is listed with its source. It is a model estimate, not a price target, and not investment advice.
On the numbers we do have, PGR trades at a recent price of $217.45, a market capitalisation of about $126,207,975,424, sitting 56% of the way up its 52-week range ($189.20–$239.38), on the NYSE.
The standard alternative to a DCF is relative valuation — comparing PGR's trading multiples against its direct industry peers. Here that gives P/E of 11.0× (cheaper than the peer median of 12.6×); Fwd P/E of 13.4× (richer than the peer median of 9.2×); P/B of 3.7× (richer than the peer median of 2.0×); P/S of 1.4× (cheaper than the peer median of 1.6×); Dividend yield of 0.2% (richer than the peer median of 1.8%). A cheaper multiple than peers can flag a discount or a market that expects weaker growth; it is a comparison, not a recommendation.
The asset, or book-value, lens is the classic tool for asset-heavy businesses and financials. PGR shows a price-to-book (P/B) of 3.65 and book value of $59.51 per share. Price-to-book compares the market price to the accounting net-asset value per share; below 1.0 can mean a discount to net assets or that the market is pricing in trouble — descriptive either way, never a buy signal on its own.
Finally, a price-based read — explicitly not a valuation. PGR is in an up-trend (price above both its 50- and 200-day averages), trading -9.2% from its 52-week high. Over the past year the stock is -0.4%. Moving-average trend and 52-week position describe where the stock has traded; they say nothing about what it is worth.
To be exact about what this page is not: we are not saying the numbers for PGR are unavailable. They are, and they are above. We are saying a discounted-cash-flow model is the wrong instrument for this kind of business, and publishing one anyway — because the inputs happen to exist — would be a precise answer to the wrong question. Refusing is the more useful answer, and it is the same rule we apply to every name in this category.
PGR vs peers
Direct industry peers.
| Multiple | PGR | Peer median | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 11.0× | 12.6× | cheaper than |
| Fwd P/E | 13.4× | 9.2× | richer than |
| P/B | 3.7× | 2.0× | richer than |
| P/S | 1.4× | 1.6× | cheaper than |
| Dividend yield | 0.2% | 1.8% | richer than |
What does The Progressive Corporation do?
What does it do?
The Progressive Corporation operates as an insurance company in the United States. It writes insurance for personal autos and special lines products, including motorcycles, RVs, and watercraft; and personal residential property insurance for homeowners and renters. It operates in the Insurance - Property & Casualty industry (Financial Services sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 70,053 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $91.7B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $14 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 14.3%), after a 17% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 12.7% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks stretched: carries modest debt (0.2× equity), may struggle to cover its short-term bills (0.3× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at PGR filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broz Steven | Chief Information Officer | Open-market sale | $250,255.25 | Form 4 for Broz Steven (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Griffith Susan Patricia | Director, President and CEO | Open-market sale | $8,195,691.00 | Form 4 for Griffith Susan Patricia (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Griffith Susan Patricia | Director, President and CEO | Gift | — | Form 4 for Griffith Susan Patricia (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Broz Steven | Chief Information Officer | Open-market sale | $268,765.00 | Form 4 for Broz Steven (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Niederst Lori A | Chief Personal Lines Officer | Open-market sale | $1,535,979.31 | Form 4 for Niederst Lori A (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Quigg Andrew J | VP and Chief Financial Officer | Open-market sale | $769,780.00 | Form 4 for Quigg Andrew J (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
How does PGR compare with its peers?
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Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
A descriptive, available-data snapshot and relative comparison — NOT a DCF, NOT a price target, and NOT investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public market data that can be wrong, stale or incomplete.