SPCX · Intrinsic value
Is Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) overvalued or undervalued?
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) trades at the delayed market price of $146.03 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. TickerWorth's fair value is $13.58 a share (975% above fair value), as of Oct 19, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is SPCX overvalued?
- Fair value
- $13.58
- Market price
- $146.03
- Downside to fair value
- 90.7%
- Verdict
- 975% above fair value
Reverse DCF, on our cash-flow model rather than the fair value above: Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast.
What is SPCX's TickerWorth Score?
Priced richly vs peers — the business scores well
Compared with Industrials companies in US
Its strongest point: growing quickly. Its weakest: looks expensive on the numbers.
- Value · 3 of 100
Cheaper than 3% of Industrials companies in US
- Price vs worth · 0 of 100
- Quality · 35 of 100
More profitable than 35% of Industrials companies in US
- Financial health · 91 of 100
Financially stronger than 91% of Industrials companies in US
- Growth · 92 of 100
Growing faster than 92% of Industrials companies in US
- Momentum · 44 of 100
Outperformed 44% of Industrials companies in US over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
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SPCX DCF valuation: what the price assumes
At a recent price of $146.03, Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) trades 975% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $13.58 per share. For this company that blend leans on peer multiples: our discounted-cash-flow model holds margins flat and fades growth toward a long-run rate, which systematically understates a business growing this fast, so its figure (about $13.14) is shown as a reference beside the range rather than blended into it. Our estimate sits below the market — read that as a statement about how the market prices SPCX against comparable companies, not as a finding that it is overvalued on cash flow. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts Space Exploration Technologies Corp.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.9%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 59% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — SPCX would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against about 13.3% a year compounded in our base case. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, SPCX's modeled DCF value ranges from about $11.34 to $16.42 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Space Exploration Technologies Corp. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of SPCX's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind SPCX's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueSpaceX 424B4 final prospectus, filed 2026-06-12 (CIK 1181412): FY2025 consolidated revenue, +33.2% vs FY2024 $14,015M. Retrospectively RECAST to include xAI and X for all periods (common-control), so this is not the standalone SpaceX of prior press coverage. | $18,674,000,000 |
| Base EBIT marginSpaceX 424B4 final prospectus, filed 2026-06-12 (CIK 1181412): FY2025 consolidated loss from operations $-2,589M / revenue $18,674M. FY2024 was PROFITABLE (+$466M); the swing is R&D going $3,464M -> $8,643M (Starship + AI). Consolidated net loss was $4,937M. | -13.9% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 10-year explicit forecast | 23% → 23% → 21% → 17% → 15% → 12% → 9% → 7% → 5% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateCBOE 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index: US 10-year Treasury (^TNX) close 4.628% on 2026-07-21, pulled live. | 4.6% |
| BetaESTIMATEAssumption — SpaceX 424B4 final prospectus, filed 2026-06-12 (CIK 1181412): ESTIMATE — and the weakest input in this model. Beta is NOT MEASURABLE for SPCX: the stock has 26 trading days of history since the 2026-06-12 IPO and yfinance returns null. 1.35 is a judgment call for a high-growth aerospace/satcom/AI hybrid. Treat any WACC here as an assumption, not a measurement. The sensitivity grid is the honest answer to this. | 1.35 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — SpaceX 424B4 final prospectus, filed 2026-06-12 (CIK 1181412): House default 2.5%, roughly long-run nominal GDP. Must stay below WACC. | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesyfinance / Nasdaq: 13,174,187,298 shares (yfinance impliedSharesOutstanding; ties to market cap $1,627,539M / $123.54 = shares). NB yfinance's sharesOutstanding field (7.57bn) is Class A only and its enterpriseValue is wrong for this ticker as a result. | 13,174M |
| Market priceBackup price feed · as of 2026-10-19 12:26 UTC | $146.03 |
Change SPCX's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does Space Exploration Technologies Corp. do?
What does it do?
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. provides satellite-based broadband services in the United States, Ireland, Canada, and internationally. It operates in the Aerospace & Defense industry (Industrials sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 21,000 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $23.0B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $0 is left as operating profit (operating margin of -1.8%), after a 52% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, -35.7% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks solid: carries modest debt (0.3× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (5.1× current ratio), and is currently lossmaking.
Who at SPCX filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotwell Gwynne | Director, President and COO | Option exercise | $1,166,732.22 | Form 4 for Shotwell Gwynne (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Shotwell Gwynne | Director, President and COO | Option exercise | $833,336.00 | Form 4 for Shotwell Gwynne (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Shotwell Gwynne | Director, President and COO | Option exercise | $2,499,981.00 | Form 4 for Shotwell Gwynne (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Shotwell Gwynne | Director, President and COO | Open-market sale | $1,889,393.75 | Form 4 for Shotwell Gwynne (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Shotwell Gwynne | Director, President and COO | Open-market sale | $1,154,646.72 | Form 4 for Shotwell Gwynne (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Shotwell Gwynne | Director, President and COO | Open-market sale | $22,348,568.28 | Form 4 for Shotwell Gwynne (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is SPCX's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) is $13.58 per share, versus a market price of $146.03 (975% above fair value).
Is SPCX overvalued or undervalued?
Our cash-flow model understates a business growing this fast, so we don't call SPCX overvalued on it. Against a blend that leans on peer multiples, the price of $146.03 sits 975% above our estimate. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for SPCX?
A WACC of 10.9% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Space Exploration Technologies stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) is $13.58 against a market price of $146.03. Our read: 975% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) is $13.58, built on a 10.9% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Space Exploration Technologies stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $146.03. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX): Shotwell Gwynne, Director, President and COO, option exercise on 2026-09-22. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Stocks below our fair value instead
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.