1299.HK · Intrinsic value
Is AIA Group Limited (1299.HK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth publishes a fair-value range of HK$19.72 – HK$19.72 for AIA Group Limited (1299.HK), against the delayed market price of HK$73.30: priced above our range. It is a range, not a single number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
What is 1299.HK worth?
- Fair-value range
- HK$19.72 – HK$19.72
- Market price
- HK$73.30
- Gap to fair value
- —
- Verdict
- Priced above our range
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of −1.0% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 0.7% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is 1299.HK's TickerWorth Score?
Scores lower than almost every company we compare it with
Compared with Financial Services companies in Hong Kong
Its strongest point: a profitable, high-quality business. Its weakest: trades above our estimate of what it's worth.
- Value · 34 of 100
Cheaper than 34% of Financial Services companies worldwide
- Price vs worth · 0 of 100
- Quality · 56 of 100
More profitable than 56% of Financial Services companies worldwide
- Financial health · 41 of 100
Financially stronger than 41% of Financial Services companies worldwide
- Growth · 45 of 100
Growing faster than 45% of Financial Services companies worldwide
- Momentum · 18 of 100
Outperformed 18% of Financial Services companies worldwide over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
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Why 1299.HK gets a range, not one number
At a recent price of 73.30, AIA Group Limited (1299.HK) sits above every lens we ran: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between 19.72 and 19.72 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts AIA Group Limited's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.7%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 78% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly -1.0% annual revenue growth for 1299.HK. Our base case instead compounds to about 0.7% a year over the same forecast, so the market's implied growth is broadly in line with our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, 1299.HK's modeled DCF value ranges from about 52.15 to 156.09 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what AIA Group Limited would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of 1299.HK's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind 1299.HK's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueLive feed — totalRevenue (TTM) | 203,158,590,000 |
| Base EBIT marginComputed — reported operating margin exceeded the EBITDA margin (impossible); held to 32.3% so D&A stays positive | 32.3% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | -2% → -1% → 1% → 2% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.1% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 0.65 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesLive feed — sharesOutstanding | 10,303M |
| Market priceLive feed — delayed quote · as of 2026-10-19T19:28:34+00:00 | 73.30 |
Change 1299.HK's assumptions
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What does AIA Group Limited do?
What does it do?
AIA Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides life insurance based financial services in Hong Kong. The company offers life insurance, accident, and health insurance and savings plans; and employee benefits, credit life, and pension services to corporate clients. It operates in the Insurance - Life industry (Financial Services sector), headquartered in Hong Kong.
How does it make money?
The business turns $25.9B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $36 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 35.7%), after a 41% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 30.9% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks mixed: carries modest debt (0.5× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (2.2× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
1299.HK insider trading
Insider filings are available for US-listed companies only.
Common questions
What is 1299.HK's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put AIA Group Limited (1299.HK) between 19.72 and 19.72 per share, versus a market price of 73.30. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is 1299.HK overvalued or undervalued?
At 73.30 the price sits above every lens we ran. We don't call 1299.HK overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for 1299.HK?
A WACC of 7.7% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is AIA Group stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for AIA Group Limited (1299.HK) is HK$19.72 – HK$19.72 against a market price of HK$73.30. Priced above our range. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
AIA Group (1299.HK) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for AIA Group Limited (1299.HK) is HK$19.72 – HK$19.72, built on a 7.7% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into AIA Group stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of −1.0% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 0.7% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of HK$73.30. A model estimate, not investment advice.
AIA Group (1299.HK) insider trading
We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for AIA Group Limited (1299.HK). Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.
Other ways into the coverage
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.