What is AAPL's intrinsic value?

TickerWorth's blended fair value for Apple Inc. (AAPL) is $160.44 per share, versus a market price of $343.46 (114% above fair value).

Is AAPL overvalued or undervalued?

On our blended fair value AAPL looks overvalued vs fair value at $343.46. This is an educational estimate, not advice.

What discount rate is used for AAPL?

A WACC of 10.6% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.

Is Apple stock undervalued?

TickerWorth's fair value for Apple Inc. (AAPL) is $160.44 against a market price of $343.46. Our read: 114% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.

Apple (AAPL) DCF valuation and fair value

Our fair value for Apple Inc. (AAPL) is $160.44, built on a 10.6% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.

Apple (AAPL) insider trading

The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Apple Inc. (AAPL): Newstead Jennifer, SVP, GC and Government Affairs, open-market sale on 2026-10-13. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.

AAPL · Intrinsic value

Is Apple Inc. (AAPL) overvalued or undervalued?

Name: Apple Inc. (AAPL) DCF intrinsic value
Creator: TickerWorth

Apple Inc. (AAPL) trades at the delayed market price of $343.46 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. TickerWorth's fair value is $160.44 a share (114% above fair value), as of Oct 19, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.

Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made

Open full AAPL analysis

Is AAPL overvalued?

Fair value: $160.44
Market price: $343.46
Downside to fair value: 53.3%
Verdict: 114% above fair value

Price as of 19 Oct 2026, 12:56 UTC · Prices are delayed.

Fair value against the delayed market price: 114% above fair value.

Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast.

What is AAPL's TickerWorth Score?

D43/100

Expensive vs our estimate — the business scores well

Compared with Technology companies in US

Its strongest point: a profitable, high-quality business. Its weakest: trades above our estimate of what it's worth.

Value · 30 of 100
Cheaper than 30% of Technology companies in US
Price vs worth · 7 of 100
Quality · 77 of 100
More profitable than 77% of Technology companies in US
Financial health · 39 of 100
Financially stronger than 39% of Technology companies in US
Growth · 30 of 100
Growing faster than 30% of Technology companies in US
Momentum · 87 of 100
Outperformed 87% of Technology companies in US over the past year

Confidence: High confidence · Scored 19 Oct 2026, 12:56 UTC

Get the Undervalued Company of the Week.

Where the numbers come from

Hand-researched model

What the modeller flagged

THE MODEL SITS FAR BELOW THE PRICE, AND THE REASON IS THE DISCOUNT RATE, NOT THE FORECAST. At the house 5.24% risk-free rate, 5% ERP and Apple's published 1.085 beta, the cost of equity is 10.67%. Apple's market cap is ~$4.87T. Netting out the $62.2B of net cash, that is ~$137B of free cash flow on a ~$4.81T enterprise value, a ~2.8% yield; at the model's 10.56% WACC that only adds up if free cash flow grows ~7.5% a year forever; the model assumes 4.5-7% for five years and 2.5% after. Holding every other input fixed, the price is reached only at a WACC of ~5.3% — essentially the risk-free rate — or terminal growth of ~8.3%. This is a genuine disagreement with the market, stated, not tuned away.
YEAR-1 FCF IS ~32% ABOVE THE FY2025 FCF MEMO ($130.0B modeled vs $98.8B reported) — beyond the 20% threshold, so stated. It decomposes: FY2025 cash was depressed by the $15.8B State Aid tax payment, and FY2026 revenue grew ~14.6%. Against trailing-twelve-month FCF of $136.7B the model's Year 1 is ~5% LOWER (normalized 17% tax vs cash taxes, capex at 2.8% vs a 1.9% run rate).
TERMINAL VALUE IS ~70% OF ENTERPRISE VALUE — below the house 75% danger line, but still most of the answer.
THE YEAR-2 MARGIN STEP-DOWN IS THE SOFTEST INPUT. 32.85% → 30.5% rests on management's own words (memory a '100-year flood', component-cost trends expected to 'intensify') and the ~29.4% ex-refund Q4 exit rate implied by its guidance. If Apple's price increases pass memory costs through fully, margins could hold near 32% — holding 32.85% flat across all five years gives ~$125/share, so even that does not change the conclusion.
AN UNNAMED ~$13B NON-CASH INTANGIBLE. Gross intangible assets rose from $24,950M to $38,220M during FY2026 (mostly by 2026-03-28), with no business-acquisition cash outflow, while other non-current liabilities rose from $41,549M to $55,080M. The 10-Q does not name the arrangement; it is consistent with licensed IP or content payable over time ('other purchase obligations' include 'licensed intellectual property and content'). Its amortization sits inside reported D&A and operating expenses. The liability is NOT added to net debt; treating ~$13B as debt-like would take ~$0.90/share off.
LEASES: $13.7B of lease liabilities (FY2025 10-K) are excluded from net debt because EBIT already bears the lease cost. Consistent, not an omission.
SBC is real and large — $10,523M in nine months (~2.9% of revenue) — and stays expensed inside reported operating income; it is not added back.
LEGAL / REGULATORY: the 10-Q discloses a US court order preventing Apple from charging any commission on certain App Store purchases (the Ninth Circuit has instructed the district court to allow some commission). A narrower App Store commission is a Services-margin risk the model does not size separately; it sits inside the conservative Y2-Y5 margin path.

AAPL DCF valuation: what the price assumes

At a recent price of $343.46, Apple Inc. (AAPL) trades 114% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $160.44 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices AAPL overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -53.3% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.

Read the full reasoning

One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values AAPL at about $119.19 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.

The valuation discounts Apple Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.6%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 70% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — AAPL would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against about 7.3% a year compounded in our base case. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, AAPL's modeled DCF value ranges from about $94.41 to $165.94 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Apple Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of AAPL's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

Every input behind AAPL's DCF

Input	Value	Source
Base-year revenueApple FY2025 10-K (accession 0000320193-25-000079, filed 2025-10-31), fiscal year ended 2025-09-27: us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 = $416,161M, +6.4% on FY2024's $391,035M. This is the latest COMPLETED fiscal year with a filed 10-K: FY2026 ended 2026-09-26 but its 10-K is not filed yet (Apple usually files in early November), so FY2025 stays the base and FY2026 is Year 1. CROSS-CHECK, Q3 FY2026 10-Q: nine-month revenue $364,357M vs $313,695M a year earlier, +16.2%; Q3 alone $109,417M, +16.4%. Trailing twelve months through 2026-06-27 = $416,161M - $313,695M + $364,357M = $466,823M.	$416,161,000,000	Apple FY2025 10-K (accession 0000320193-25-000079, filed 2025-10-31), fiscal year ended 2025-09-27: us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 = $416,161M, +6.4% on FY2024's $391,035M. This is the latest COMPLETED fiscal year with a filed 10-K: FY2026 ended 2026-09-26 but its 10-K is not filed yet (Apple usually files in early November), so FY2025 stays the base and FY2026 is Year 1. CROSS-CHECK, Q3 FY2026 10-Q: nine-month revenue $364,357M vs $313,695M a year earlier, +16.2%; Q3 alone $109,417M, +16.4%. Trailing twelve months through 2026-06-27 = $416,161M - $313,695M + $364,357M = $466,823M.
Base EBIT marginApple FY2025 10-K (accession 0000320193-25-000079, filed 2025-10-31): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss FY2025 $133,050M / revenue $416,161M = 31.97%. Apple reports an operating-income line, so this is read off the filing, not derived. Gross margin $195,201M (46.9%) less R&D $34,550M and SG&A $27,601M. History for context: FY2024 31.51% ($123,216M / $391,035M). CROSS-CHECK, Q3 FY2026 10-Q: nine-month operating income $122,432M / $364,357M = 33.60%, BUT that includes tariff refunds — Apple says Q3's 50.1% gross margin carried 'a favorable impact of approximately 2 percentage points from tariff refunds' (Ex-99.1), after the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs on 2026-02-20 (10-Q MD&A). Ex-refunds the nine-month margin is ~33.0%. Non-operating income (FY2025: -$321M) is excluded; interest income is captured through the net-cash bridge instead.	32.0%	Apple FY2025 10-K (accession 0000320193-25-000079, filed 2025-10-31): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss FY2025 $133,050M / revenue $416,161M = 31.97%. Apple reports an operating-income line, so this is read off the filing, not derived. Gross margin $195,201M (46.9%) less R&D $34,550M and SG&A $27,601M. History for context: FY2024 31.51% ($123,216M / $391,035M). CROSS-CHECK, Q3 FY2026 10-Q: nine-month operating income $122,432M / $364,357M = 33.60%, BUT that includes tariff refunds — Apple says Q3's 50.1% gross margin carried 'a favorable impact of approximately 2 percentage points from tariff refunds' (Ex-99.1), after the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs on 2026-02-20 (10-Q MD&A). Ex-refunds the nine-month margin is ~33.0%. Non-operating income (FY2025: -$321M) is excluded; interest income is captured through the net-cash bridge instead.
Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast	15% → 7% → 6% → 5% → 4%	ESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rateUS 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model in the tracker.	5.2%	US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model in the tracker.
BetaYahoo Finance 5Y-monthly beta via yfinance, read 2026-10-03: Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.085, used AS PUBLISHED — no normalization. There is an argument in each direction and neither is strong enough to override the published figure: Apple's cash flows are steadier than a 1.085 beta suggests (argues lower), but it is also ~7% of the S&P 500, so its beta is partly its own weight in the index (argues for leaving it alone). Sensitivity: beta 1.0 gives ~$125.6/share, 0.9 gives ~$134.0, 1.2 gives ~$111.6. The reverse DCF shows no plausible beta closes the gap to the price (see explainer).	1.08	Yahoo Finance 5Y-monthly beta via yfinance, read 2026-10-03: Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.085, used AS PUBLISHED — no normalization. There is an argument in each direction and neither is strong enough to override the published figure: Apple's cash flows are steadier than a 1.085 beta suggests (argues lower), but it is also ~7% of the S&P 500, so its beta is partly its own weight in the index (argues for leaving it alone). Sensitivity: beta 1.0 gives ~$125.6/share, 0.9 gives ~$134.0, 1.2 gives ~$111.6. The reverse DCF shows no plausible beta closes the gap to the price (see explainer).
Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability with every other company in this tracker. Not raised for Apple: a ~$590B-revenue business by FY2030 growing faster than the world economy forever is exactly the assumption the market price is making, and this model should show that rather than adopt it. 3.5% would give ~$131/share. Well below the 10.56% WACC.	2.5%	ESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability with every other company in this tracker. Not raised for Apple: a ~$590B-revenue business by FY2030 growing faster than the world economy forever is exactly the assumption the market price is making, and this model should show that rather than adopt it. 3.5% would give ~$131/share. Well below the 10.56% WACC.
Diluted sharesApple Q3 FY2026 10-Q (accession 0000320193-26-000020, filed 2026-07-31): Q3 FY2026 weighted-average diluted shares 14,714,676K. The count is FALLING — the opposite of IBM: 15,408M (FY2024) → 15,005M (FY2025) → 14,715M (Q3 FY2026), about -2% a year, because Apple bought back $62.1B of stock in nine months (and $25.8B in Q3 alone) under a further $100B authorization from 2026-04-30. The model does NOT credit future buybacks with extra value: repurchases are a use of the free cash flow already being valued, and buying shares above this model's value per share lowers it rather than raising it.	14,715M	Apple Q3 FY2026 10-Q (accession 0000320193-26-000020, filed 2026-07-31): Q3 FY2026 weighted-average diluted shares 14,714,676K. The count is FALLING — the opposite of IBM: 15,408M (FY2024) → 15,005M (FY2025) → 14,715M (Q3 FY2026), about -2% a year, because Apple bought back $62.1B of stock in nine months (and $25.8B in Q3 alone) under a further $100B authorization from 2026-04-30. The model does NOT credit future buybacks with extra value: repurchases are a use of the free cash flow already being valued, and buying shares above this model's value per share lowers it rather than raising it.
Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 12:56 UTC	$343.46	Delayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 12:56 UTC

Test the discount rate

Moves the DCF value, one of the lenses behind the fair value above. It does not move the fair value itself.

Discount rate (WACC): 10.6%; ESTIMATEour base case
DCF value: $119.19
Market price: $343.46; Delayed, as stamped above

5.6%15.6%

What does Apple Inc. do?

What does it do?

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables, and accessories worldwide. Its product portfolio includes iPhone, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch, AirPods, and various accessories, along with services like AppleCare, cloud services, and the App Store.

How does it make money?

Apple generates revenue through hardware sales (iPhones, Macs, iPads, wearables, and accessories) and services including AppleCare support, cloud services, and the App Store, which includes application sales and advertising services. The company reported total revenue of $466.8 billion with a gross margin of 48.7% and net margin of 27.6%.

Is it financially healthy?

Apple shows mixed financial health: it has a strong net margin of 27.6% and operating margin of 32.6%, but its current ratio of 1.003 indicates minimal short-term liquidity buffer, and its debt-to-equity ratio of 0.78 shows moderate leverage.

Who at AAPL filed insider trades?

Recent insider filings for Apple Inc.
Date	Insider	Relationship	What happened	Value	Filing
13 Oct 2026	Newstead Jennifer	SVP, GC and Government Affairs	Open-market sale	$827,655.00	Form 4 for Newstead Jennifer (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
6 Oct 2026	Newstead Jennifer	SVP, GC and Government Affairs	Open-market sale	$796,491.99	Form 4 for Newstead Jennifer (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
2 Oct 2026	COOK TIMOTHY D	Director, Executive Chair	Open-market sale	$7,670,515.92	Form 4 for COOK TIMOTHY D (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
2 Oct 2026	COOK TIMOTHY D	Director, Executive Chair	Open-market sale	$13,117,662.72	Form 4 for COOK TIMOTHY D (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
2 Oct 2026	COOK TIMOTHY D	Director, Executive Chair	Open-market sale	$29,406,529.14	Form 4 for COOK TIMOTHY D (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
2 Oct 2026	COOK TIMOTHY D	Director, Executive Chair	Open-market sale	$13,651,133.26	Form 4 for COOK TIMOTHY D (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
2 Oct 2026	COOK TIMOTHY D	Director, Executive Chair	Gift	—	Form 4 for COOK TIMOTHY D (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
2 Oct 2026	O'BRIEN DEIRDRE	Senior Vice President	Open-market sale	$13,588,679.40	Form 4 for O'BRIEN DEIRDRE (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
2 Oct 2026	O'BRIEN DEIRDRE	Senior Vice President	Open-market sale	$1,878,243.75	Form 4 for O'BRIEN DEIRDRE (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
2 Oct 2026	Ternus John	Director, CEO	Open-market sale	$1,181,038.32	Form 4 for Ternus John (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
2 Oct 2026	Ternus John	Director, CEO	Open-market sale	$1,776,926.48	Form 4 for Ternus John (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
2 Oct 2026	Ternus John	Director, CEO	Open-market sale	$4,248,751.64	Form 4 for Ternus John (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
2 Oct 2026	Ternus John	Director, CEO	Open-market sale	$1,254,023.70	Form 4 for Ternus John (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
1 Oct 2026	COOK TIMOTHY D	Director, Executive Chair	Option exercise	—	Form 4 for COOK TIMOTHY D (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
1 Oct 2026	COOK TIMOTHY D	Director, Executive Chair	Shares withheld (tax)	$65,746,232.16	Form 4 for COOK TIMOTHY D (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
1 Oct 2026	O'BRIEN DEIRDRE	Senior Vice President	Option exercise	—	Form 4 for O'BRIEN DEIRDRE (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
1 Oct 2026	O'BRIEN DEIRDRE	Senior Vice President	Shares withheld (tax)	$17,668,486.48	Form 4 for O'BRIEN DEIRDRE (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
1 Oct 2026	Ternus John	Director, CEO	Option exercise	—	Form 4 for Ternus John (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
1 Oct 2026	Ternus John	Director, CEO	Shares withheld (tax)	$16,203,517.28	Form 4 for Ternus John (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
1 Oct 2026	Khan Sabih	COO	Option exercise	—	Form 4 for Khan Sabih (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
1 Oct 2026	Khan Sabih	COO	Shares withheld (tax)	$17,458,733.28	Form 4 for Khan Sabih (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
29 Sept 2026	Newstead Jennifer	SVP, GC and Government Affairs	Open-market sale	$806,495.82	Form 4 for Newstead Jennifer (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
22 Sept 2026	Newstead Jennifer	SVP, GC and Government Affairs	Open-market sale	$815,803.94	Form 4 for Newstead Jennifer (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
15 Sept 2026	Newstead Jennifer	SVP, GC and Government Affairs	Open-market sale	$474,813.22	Form 4 for Newstead Jennifer (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
15 Sept 2026	Newstead Jennifer	SVP, GC and Government Affairs	Option exercise	—	Form 4 for Newstead Jennifer (opens sec.gov in a new tab)

A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4).

Common questions

What is AAPL's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Apple Inc. (AAPL) is $160.44 per share, versus a market price of $343.46 (114% above fair value).
Is AAPL overvalued or undervalued?
On our blended fair value AAPL looks overvalued vs fair value at $343.46. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for AAPL?
A WACC of 10.6% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Apple stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Apple Inc. (AAPL) is $160.44 against a market price of $343.46. Our read: 114% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Apple (AAPL) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Apple Inc. (AAPL) is $160.44, built on a 10.6% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Apple stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $343.46. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Apple (AAPL) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Apple Inc. (AAPL): Newstead Jennifer, SVP, GC and Government Affairs, open-market sale on 2026-10-13. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.