What is AMZN's intrinsic value?

TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) between $71.95 and $332.19 per share, versus a market price of $250.00. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.

Is AMZN overvalued or undervalued?

At $250.00 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call AMZN overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.

What discount rate is used for AMZN?

A WACC of 11.3% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.

Is Amazon.com stock undervalued?

TickerWorth's fair-value range for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) is $71.95 – $332.19 against a market price of $250.00. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.

Amazon.com (AMZN) DCF valuation and fair value

Our fair-value range for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) is $71.95 – $332.19, built on a 11.3% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.

Amazon.com (AMZN) insider trading

The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN): Herrington Douglas J, CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores, open-market sale on 2026-10-01. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.

AMZN · Intrinsic value

Is Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) overvalued or undervalued?

Name: Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) DCF intrinsic value
Creator: TickerWorth

As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) at $71.95 – $332.19, too broad a range to say where the delayed market price of $250.00 sits in it, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.

Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made

Open full AMZN analysis

What is AMZN worth?

Fair-value range: $71.95 – $332.19
Market price: $250.00
Gap to fair value: —
Verdict: Too wide to call

Price as of 19 Oct 2026, 13:16 UTC · Prices are delayed.Our valuation lenses disagree too widely on this company for us to publish a single number, so we publish the range instead. We do not call it over- or undervalued from a spread this wide.

Fair-value range against the delayed market price: Too wide to call.

Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast.

What is AMZN's TickerWorth Score?

C51/100

Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses

Compared with Consumer Cyclical companies in US

Its strongest point: a profitable, high-quality business. Its weakest: looks expensive on the numbers.

Value · 31 of 100
Cheaper than 31% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Price vs worth · 24 of 100
Quality · 71 of 100
More profitable than 71% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Financial health · 61 of 100
Financially stronger than 61% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Growth · 61 of 100
Growing faster than 61% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Momentum · 68 of 100
Outperformed 68% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US over the past year

Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored 19 Oct 2026, 13:16 UTC

Get the Undervalued Company of the Week.

Where the numbers come from

Hand-researched model

What the modeller flagged

YEAR-1 FCF IS DEEPLY NEGATIVE AND FAR BELOW AMAZON'S OWN FIGURE: the model's FY2026 FCF is about −$83.5B against Amazon's reported FY2025 FCF of +$11.2B (TTM to June 2026: −$7.6B). Decomposed: (a) capex steps from $173B TTM gross to the guided ~$224B incl. finance leases (−$51B); (b) stock comp (~$20B) stays expensed instead of added back; (c) the model taxes EBIT at 19% (~$20B) while Amazon paid ~$6.6B of cash tax TTM thanks to 100% bonus depreciation; (d) only P&E depreciation is added back, not lease and content amortization (offset by their cash costs in Amazon's own figure). Each is deliberate; together they are the gap.
TERMINAL VALUE IS ~83% OF ENTERPRISE VALUE — above the 75% line. And that figure flatters the forecast years: because capex is levelized, the engine shows positive FCF from 2027 ($56B rising to $98B in 2030), whereas on my explicit build-out path FY2026-28 free cash flow is negative and the terminal year carries MORE than 100% of the value. Either way, this valuation is a bet on the steady state after 2030. Treat the point estimate with suspicion; the sensitivity range ($69-$118) is the honest output.
THE BONUS-DEPRECIATION TAX SHIELD IS NOT CREDITED. During the build-out Amazon defers tens of billions a year of cash tax (deferred income taxes added back $41.4B TTM, part of it on the Anthropic gains). The flat 19% rate ignores this timing benefit — conservative, plausibly worth several dollars a share.
THE FIVE-YEAR CLIFF IS A STRUCTURAL UNDERSTATEMENT FOR A BUSINESS STILL GROWING 9% IN 2030. The handover from 9% to 2.5% is abrupt; a longer fade would raise the value. Kept for comparability with every other model in this tracker, and called out rather than hidden.
THE DISCOUNT RATE IS HIGH IN ABSOLUTE TERMS. WACC ~11.3% = a 5.24% risk-free rate plus 1.30 × 5% ERP. Even after normalizing beta DOWN from the published 1.443, this is well above the ~8-9% discount rates commonly quoted for Amazon; at a ~9.9% WACC (beta 1.0) the model gives ~$104/share, and it takes a WACC of ~5.6% — barely above the risk-free rate — to reach today's price. Most of the gap to the market price sits in this one input and in the terminal handover.
SBC of $19,467M (FY2025, 2.7% of revenue) is expensed inside GAAP operating income and not added back; dilution is carried through the weighted-diluted share count.
AI-STAKE MARKS ARE LEVEL 3 AND MOVE BY TENS OF BILLIONS A QUARTER: Amazon booked +$50.5B of Anthropic mark-ups in Q2 2026 alone. An Anthropic IPO (reported as possible as soon as Q4 2026) would replace the private mark with a public price, in either direction.

Why AMZN gets a range, not one number

At a recent price of $250.00, Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $71.95 and $332.19 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.

Read the full reasoning

The valuation discounts Amazon.com, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 11.3%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 83% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — AMZN would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against about 12.0% a year compounded in our base case. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, AMZN's modeled DCF value ranges from about $68.78 to $118.29 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Amazon.com, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of AMZN's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

Every input behind AMZN's DCF

Input	Value	Source
Base-year revenueAmazon Q4 2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001018724-26-000002, filed 2026-02-05); ties to Amazon FY2025 10-K (accession 0001018724-26-000004, filed 2026-02-06): Total net sales FY2025 $716,924M (+12.4% on FY2024 $637,959M; +12% ex-FX). Mix: North America $426,305M, International $161,894M, AWS $128,725M. UNCHANGED as the base — the DCF grows this by forecast.revenue_growth. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 net sales $382,125M, +18.2% on H1 2025 $323,369M (Q2 alone +20% to $200,606M, flattered by Prime Day moving from July into June — Amazon says Q3 2026 growth would be ~400bp higher ex-Prime-Day in both years). TTM to 2026-06-30 is $775,680M.	$716,924,000,000	Amazon Q4 2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001018724-26-000002, filed 2026-02-05); ties to Amazon FY2025 10-K (accession 0001018724-26-000004, filed 2026-02-06): Total net sales FY2025 $716,924M (+12.4% on FY2024 $637,959M; +12% ex-FX). Mix: North America $426,305M, International $161,894M, AWS $128,725M. UNCHANGED as the base — the DCF grows this by forecast.revenue_growth. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 net sales $382,125M, +18.2% on H1 2025 $323,369M (Q2 alone +20% to $200,606M, flattered by Prime Day moving from July into June — Amazon says Q3 2026 growth would be ~400bp higher ex-Prime-Day in both years). TTM to 2026-06-30 is $775,680M.
Base EBIT marginAmazon Q4 2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001018724-26-000002, filed 2026-02-05): GAAP operating income $79,975M / $716,924M = 11.16%. Left as reported, INCLUDING Q4 2025's three special charges ($1.1B Italy tax dispute + lawsuit settlement, $730M severance, $610M impairments, ~$2.44B together; ex-charges FY2025 would be ~11.5%). Operating income EXCLUDES the Anthropic/OpenAI fair-value gains, which sit in non-operating 'Other income' — they are valued separately in net_debt, so nothing is counted twice. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 operating margin 13.43% ($51,313M / $382,125M; Q1 13.1%, Q2 13.7%), TTM 12.1%. H1 2026 includes $599M of unrealized energy-derivative gains inside 'Technology and infrastructure' (10-Q Note 2), ~0.16pt of margin, non-cash and excluded from Q3 guidance.	11.2%	Amazon Q4 2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001018724-26-000002, filed 2026-02-05): GAAP operating income $79,975M / $716,924M = 11.16%. Left as reported, INCLUDING Q4 2025's three special charges ($1.1B Italy tax dispute + lawsuit settlement, $730M severance, $610M impairments, ~$2.44B together; ex-charges FY2025 would be ~11.5%). Operating income EXCLUDES the Anthropic/OpenAI fair-value gains, which sit in non-operating 'Other income' — they are valued separately in net_debt, so nothing is counted twice. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 operating margin 13.43% ($51,313M / $382,125M; Q1 13.1%, Q2 13.7%), TTM 12.1%. H1 2026 includes $599M of unrealized energy-derivative gains inside 'Technology and infrastructure' (10-Q Note 2), ~0.16pt of margin, non-cash and excluded from Q3 guidance.
Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast	15% → 14% → 12% → 10% → 9%	ESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rateUS 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model in this tracker.	5.2%	US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model in this tracker.
BetaESTIMATEAssumption — normalized estimate (anchor: Yahoo/yfinance 5Y-monthly beta 1.443, read 2026-10-03): Published 5Y-monthly beta is 1.443; my own regressions against the S&P 500 agree it is high and NOT a single-window artefact: 1.49 (60 months), 1.59 (36m), 1.80 (24m), 1.46-1.47 (2-3 years weekly). Normalized DOWN to 1.30 by the standard Blume adjustment (0.67 × 1.443 + 0.33 = 1.30), which corrects regression betas for their documented drift toward 1.0, and because the 5-year window carries the 2022 post-pandemic e-commerce unwind (the stock roughly halved that year) — a one-off de-rating rather than how a $2.7T, AWS-weighted business co-moves with the market through a cycle. Same normalization CAT uses. THIS IS GENEROUS: it LOWERS WACC and RAISES the value. Using the published 1.443 instead lifts WACC to ~12.0% and takes ~$6.35/share off ($80.17). Even so, the shorter windows say the market currently treats Amazon as MORE sensitive, not less — the AI-capex era has raised it.	1.30	ESTIMATEAssumption — normalized estimate (anchor: Yahoo/yfinance 5Y-monthly beta 1.443, read 2026-10-03): Published 5Y-monthly beta is 1.443; my own regressions against the S&P 500 agree it is high and NOT a single-window artefact: 1.49 (60 months), 1.59 (36m), 1.80 (24m), 1.46-1.47 (2-3 years weekly). Normalized DOWN to 1.30 by the standard Blume adjustment (0.67 × 1.443 + 0.33 = 1.30), which corrects regression betas for their documented drift toward 1.0, and because the 5-year window carries the 2022 post-pandemic e-commerce unwind (the stock roughly halved that year) — a one-off de-rating rather than how a $2.7T, AWS-weighted business co-moves with the market through a cycle. Same normalization CAT uses. THIS IS GENEROUS: it LOWERS WACC and RAISES the value. Using the published 1.443 instead lifts WACC to ~12.0% and takes ~$6.35/share off ($80.17). Even so, the shorter windows say the market currently treats Amazon as MORE sensitive, not less — the AI-capex era has raised it.
Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. FLAG: this is CONSERVATIVE for Amazon specifically — the model hands over from 9% growth in 2030 straight to 2.5% forever, and AWS/advertising will very likely still be growing faster than the economy in 2031. That cliff is a structural feature of a five-year DCF, and it is one of the main reasons this model sits well below the market. 3.0% adds ~$4/share ($90.49); 2.0% takes ~$3.50 off. Must remain < WACC of ~11.3%.	2.5%	ESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. FLAG: this is CONSERVATIVE for Amazon specifically — the model hands over from 9% growth in 2030 straight to 2.5% forever, and AWS/advertising will very likely still be growing faster than the economy in 2031. That cliff is a structural feature of a five-year DCF, and it is one of the main reasons this model sits well below the market. 3.0% adds ~$4/share ($90.49); 2.0% takes ~$3.50 off. Must remain < WACC of ~11.3%.
Diluted sharesAmazon Q2 2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001018724-26-000024, filed 2026-07-30): Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 10,903M (H1 2026 10,889M; FY2025 10,827M). Used rather than the 10,783M outstanding at 2026-06-30 because that is how this model carries stock-comp dilution. The count is creeping UP ~1% a year: Amazon has $6.1B left on a 2022 buyback authorization and bought nothing back in H1 2025 or H1 2026. Shares + awards outstanding 11,027M.	10,903M	Amazon Q2 2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001018724-26-000024, filed 2026-07-30): Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 10,903M (H1 2026 10,889M; FY2025 10,827M). Used rather than the 10,783M outstanding at 2026-06-30 because that is how this model carries stock-comp dilution. The count is creeping UP ~1% a year: Amazon has $6.1B left on a 2022 buyback authorization and bought nothing back in H1 2025 or H1 2026. Shares + awards outstanding 11,027M.
Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:16 UTC	$250.00	Delayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:16 UTC

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What does Amazon.com, Inc. do?

What does it do?

Amazon.com, Inc. operates in three main segments: North America and International retail (selling consumer products through online and physical stores), Amazon Web Services (AWS), and advertising and subscription services. The company also manufactures electronic devices like Kindle, Fire tablets, Echo, and Ring, and produces media content.

How does it make money?

Amazon generates revenue primarily through retail sales, AWS services, advertising, and subscriptions. In the trailing twelve months, the company reported total revenue of $775.7 billion with a gross margin of 50.77%, an operating margin of 13.69%, and a net profit margin of 17.44%.

Is it financially healthy?

Amazon's financial health indicators show a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.46 and a current ratio of 1.03. The current ratio near 1.0 indicates the company has roughly $1.03 in current assets for every $1.00 of current liabilities, suggesting tight but manageable short-term liquidity.

Who at AMZN filed insider trades?

Recent insider filings for Amazon.com, Inc.
Date	Insider	Relationship	What happened	Value	Filing
1 Oct 2026	Herrington Douglas J	CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores	Open-market sale	$251,500.00	Form 4 for Herrington Douglas J (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
1 Sept 2026	Herrington Douglas J	CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores	Open-market sale	$254,770.00	Form 4 for Herrington Douglas J (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
26 Aug 2026	BEZOS JEFFREY P	Director, Executive Chair	Gift	—	Form 4 for BEZOS JEFFREY P (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
25 Aug 2026	BEZOS JEFFREY P	Director, Executive Chair	Gift	—	Form 4 for BEZOS JEFFREY P (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
24 Aug 2026	Zapolsky David	Senior Vice President	Open-market sale	$2,404,950.66	Form 4 for Zapolsky David (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
21 Aug 2026	Jassy Andrew R	Director, President and CEO	Option exercise	—	Form 4 for Jassy Andrew R (opens sec.gov in a new tab)

A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans

Common questions

What is AMZN's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) between $71.95 and $332.19 per share, versus a market price of $250.00. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is AMZN overvalued or undervalued?
At $250.00 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call AMZN overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for AMZN?
A WACC of 11.3% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Amazon.com stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) is $71.95 – $332.19 against a market price of $250.00. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Amazon.com (AMZN) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) is $71.95 – $332.19, built on a 11.3% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Amazon.com stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $250.00. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Amazon.com (AMZN) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN): Herrington Douglas J, CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores, open-market sale on 2026-10-01. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.