2914.T · Intrinsic value
Is Japan Tobacco Inc. (2914.T) overvalued or undervalued?
Japan Tobacco Inc. (2914.T) trades at the delayed market price of ¥7,522.00 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of 1.3% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is ¥8,275.10 a share (priced within our range of ¥3,084.68 – ¥10,594.93). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is 2914.T fairly valued?
- Fair value
- ¥8,275.10
- Market price
- ¥7,522.00
- Upside to fair value
- +10.0%
- Verdict
- Priced within our range of ¥3,084.68 – ¥10,594.93
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 1.3% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 10.4% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is 2914.T's TickerWorth Score?
A stronger business than most — but not cheap
Compared with Consumer Defensive companies in Japan
Its strongest point: a profitable, high-quality business. Its weakest: looks expensive on the numbers.
- Value · 44 of 100
Cheaper than 44% of Consumer Defensive companies worldwide
- Price vs worth · 58 of 100
- Quality · 73 of 100
More profitable than 73% of Consumer Defensive companies worldwide
- Financial health · 79 of 100
Financially stronger than 79% of Consumer Defensive companies worldwide
- Growth · 60 of 100
Growing faster than 60% of Consumer Defensive companies worldwide
- Momentum · 96 of 100
Outperformed 96% of Consumer Defensive companies worldwide over the past year
Confidence: High confidence · Scored
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2914.T DCF valuation, input by input
TickerWorth's fair value for Japan Tobacco Inc. (2914.T) is ¥8,275.10 a share, against the delayed market price of ¥7,522.00 (priced within our range of ¥3,084.68 – ¥10,594.93). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values 2914.T at about ¥10,595 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts Japan Tobacco Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.4%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 74% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 1.3% annual revenue growth for 2914.T. Our base case instead compounds to about 10.4% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in slower growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, 2914.T's modeled DCF value ranges from about ¥7,841 to ¥16,463 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Japan Tobacco Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of 2914.T's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind 2914.T's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueLive feed — totalRevenue (TTM) | ¥3,719,202,080,000 |
| Base EBIT marginComputed — trailing operatingMargins, held roughly flat | 31.7% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 17% → 14% → 10% → 7% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.2% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 1.00 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesLive feed — sharesOutstanding | 1,775M |
| Market priceLast known price · as of 2026-10-19 13:20 UTC | ¥7,522 |
Change 2914.T's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
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What does Japan Tobacco Inc. do?
What does it do?
Japan Tobacco Inc., a tobacco company, engages in the manufacture and sale of tobacco products in Japan and internationally. It operates through two segments: Tobacco Business and Processed Food Business. It operates in the Tobacco industry (Consumer Defensive sector), headquartered in Japan. The company employs roughly 52,867 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns 3.7T in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $32 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 31.7%), after a 57% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 16.7% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks mixed: carries modest debt (0.4× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (2.0× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
2914.T insider trading
Insider filings are available for US-listed companies only.
Common questions
What is 2914.T's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Japan Tobacco Inc. (2914.T) is ¥8,275.10 per share, versus a market price of ¥7,522.00 (priced within our range of ¥3,084.68 – ¥10,594.93).
Is 2914.T overvalued or undervalued?
Priced within our range of ¥3,084.68 – ¥10,594.93 at ¥7,522.00. We don't call 2914.T overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for 2914.T?
A WACC of 9.4% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Japan Tobacco stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Japan Tobacco Inc. (2914.T) is ¥8,275.10 against a market price of ¥7,522.00. Our read: Priced within our range of ¥3,084.68 – ¥10,594.93. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Japan Tobacco (2914.T) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Japan Tobacco Inc. (2914.T) is ¥8,275.10, built on a 9.4% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Japan Tobacco stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 1.3% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 10.4% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of ¥7,522.00. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Japan Tobacco (2914.T) insider trading
We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Japan Tobacco Inc. (2914.T). Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.