Is Meituan (3690.HK) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Sep 3, 2026 · auto-modeled from live data · educational, not advice
Live data unavailable — Showing the last price we hold for this listing, recorded 2026-09-02 12:52 UTC (19 hours ago). Valuations here are built from company filings and are unaffected.
At a recent price of 78.75, Meituan (3690.HK) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between 50.32 and 242.71 per share, and they disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
The valuation discounts Meituan's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 6.3%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 84% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 18.0% annual revenue growth for 3690.HK. Our base case instead assumes about 4.8% average growth over the forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, 3690.HK's modeled DCF value ranges from about 36.66 to 115.43 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Meituan would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of 3690.HK's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind 3690.HK's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | 430,722,890,000 | Live feed — totalRevenue (TTM) |
| Base EBIT margin | 2.0% | Computed — trailing operatingMargins, held roughly flat |
| Forecast revenue growth | 6% → 5% → 5% → 4% → 4% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 4.7% | Live feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) |
| Beta | 0.40 | Live feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC |
| Diluted shares | 5,593M | Live feed — sharesOutstanding |
| Market price | 78.75 | Last known price · as of 2026-09-03 08:10 UTC |
Auto-modeled from live market data because it's frequently searched — this is NOT a hand-researched model. Every growth, margin and capital assumption is an algorithmic ESTIMATE, cached and refreshed periodically. Drag the WACC slider to test how sensitive the value is.
Explore more
Most undervalued stocks (per our valuation) · All valued stocks · Interactive 3690.HK valuation & downloadable modelEducational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is an educational DCF tool, not a licensed investment adviser. Figures are estimates derived from public filings and market data and can be wrong.