4578.T · Intrinsic value
Is Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. (4578.T) overvalued or undervalued?
Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. (4578.T) trades at the delayed market price of ¥12,270.00 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of 1.5% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is ¥18,610.34 a share (34% below fair value), as of Oct 19, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is 4578.T undervalued?
- Fair value
- ¥18,610.34
- Market price
- ¥12,270.00
- Upside to fair value
- +51.7%
- Verdict
- 34% below fair value
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 1.5% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 10.6% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is 4578.T's TickerWorth Score?
Scores higher than almost every company we compare it with
Compared with Healthcare companies in Japan
Its strongest point: trades below our estimate of what it's worth.
- Value · 69 of 100
Cheaper than 69% of Healthcare companies worldwide
- Price vs worth · 91 of 100
- Quality · 70 of 100
More profitable than 70% of Healthcare companies worldwide
- Financial health · 74 of 100
Financially stronger than 74% of Healthcare companies worldwide
- Growth · 50 of 100
Growing faster than 50% of Healthcare companies worldwide
- Momentum · 89 of 100
Outperformed 89% of Healthcare companies worldwide over the past year
Confidence: High confidence · Scored
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4578.T DCF valuation: where the gap comes from
At a recent price of ¥12,270, Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. (4578.T) trades 34% below TickerWorth's blended fair value of ¥18,610 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices 4578.T undervalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits above the market, an implied +51.7% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
Read the full reasoning
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values 4578.T at about ¥16,752 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.8%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 73% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 1.5% annual revenue growth for 4578.T. Our base case instead compounds to about 10.6% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in slower growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, 4578.T's modeled DCF value ranges from about ¥12,901 to ¥24,579 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of 4578.T's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind 4578.T's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueLive feed — totalRevenue (TTM) | ¥2,620,515,940,000 |
| Base EBIT marginComputed — trailing operatingMargins, held roughly flat | 20.5% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 17% → 14% → 11% → 7% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.2% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 1.00 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesLive feed — sharesOutstanding | 525M |
| Market priceLast known price · as of 2026-10-19 13:20 UTC | ¥12,270 |
Change 4578.T's assumptions
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What does Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. do?
What does it do?
Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. engages in the pharmaceuticals, nutraceuticals, consumer products, and other businesses worldwide. It operates in the Drug Manufacturers - General industry (Healthcare sector), headquartered in Japan. The company employs roughly 37,758 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns 2.6T in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $21 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 20.5%), after a 72% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 15.5% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks solid: carries modest debt (0.1× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (2.2× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
4578.T insider trading
Insider filings are available for US-listed companies only.
Common questions
What is 4578.T's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. (4578.T) is ¥18,610 per share, versus a market price of ¥12,270 (34% below fair value).
Is 4578.T overvalued or undervalued?
On our blended fair value 4578.T looks undervalued vs fair value at ¥12,270. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for 4578.T?
A WACC of 9.8% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Otsuka stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. (4578.T) is ¥18,610.34 against a market price of ¥12,270.00. Our read: 34% below fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Otsuka (4578.T) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. (4578.T) is ¥18,610.34, built on a 9.8% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Otsuka stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 1.5% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 10.6% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of ¥12,270.00. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Otsuka (4578.T) insider trading
We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. (4578.T). Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.
More stocks below our fair value
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.