6861.T · Intrinsic value
Is Keyence Corporation (6861.T) overvalued or undervalued?
Keyence Corporation (6861.T) trades at the delayed market price of ¥81,410.00 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of 24.6% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is ¥47,343.24 a share (72% above fair value), as of Oct 19, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is 6861.T overvalued?
- Fair value
- ¥47,343.24
- Market price
- ¥81,410.00
- Downside to fair value
- 41.8%
- Verdict
- 72% above fair value
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 24.6% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 16.6% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is 6861.T's TickerWorth Score?
A stronger business than most — but not cheap
Compared with Technology companies in Japan
Its strongest point: a profitable, high-quality business. Its weakest: trades above our estimate of what it's worth.
- Value · 34 of 100
Cheaper than 34% of Technology companies worldwide
- Price vs worth · 16 of 100
- Quality · 94 of 100
More profitable than 94% of Technology companies worldwide
- Financial health · 99 of 100
Financially stronger than virtually every one of the Technology companies worldwide
- Growth · 44 of 100
Growing faster than 44% of Technology companies worldwide
- Momentum · 84 of 100
Outperformed 84% of Technology companies worldwide over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
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6861.T DCF valuation: what the price assumes
At a recent price of ¥81,410, Keyence Corporation (6861.T) trades 72% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of ¥47,343 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices 6861.T overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -41.8% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
Read the full reasoning
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values 6861.T at about ¥61,845 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts Keyence Corporation's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.9%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 74% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 24.6% annual revenue growth for 6861.T. Our base case instead compounds to about 16.6% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, 6861.T's modeled DCF value ranges from about ¥48,542 to ¥88,600 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Keyence Corporation would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of 6861.T's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind 6861.T's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueLive feed — totalRevenue (TTM) | ¥1,254,834,040,000 |
| Base EBIT marginComputed — trailing operatingMargins, held roughly flat | 54.0% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 30% → 24% → 17% → 10% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.2% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 1.00 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesLive feed — sharesOutstanding | 243M |
| Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 17:02 UTC | ¥81,410 |
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What does Keyence Corporation do?
What does it do?
Keyence Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells electronic application equipment in Japan and internationally. The company offers photoelectric, fiber optic, laser, inductive proximity, positioning, vision, and specific solution sensors, as well as network communication units; laser profiler/3D laser snapshot sensor, laser displacement sensors, optical micrometer/laser micrometer, spectral interference displacement sensor, inductive displacement sensors, and LVDT/contact displacement sensors; machine vision products; and flow sensors/flow meters, pressure sensors, temperature sensors, and level sensors. It operates in the Scientific & Technical Instruments industry (Technology sector), headquartered in Japan. The company employs roughly 12,784 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns 1.3T in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $54 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 54.0%), after a 84% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 39.2% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks solid: comfortably covers its short-term bills (11.9× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
6861.T insider trading
Insider filings are available for US-listed companies only.
Common questions
What is 6861.T's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Keyence Corporation (6861.T) is ¥47,343 per share, versus a market price of ¥81,410 (72% above fair value).
Is 6861.T overvalued or undervalued?
On our blended fair value 6861.T looks overvalued vs fair value at ¥81,410. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for 6861.T?
A WACC of 9.9% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Keyence stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Keyence Corporation (6861.T) is ¥47,343.24 against a market price of ¥81,410.00. Our read: 72% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Keyence (6861.T) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Keyence Corporation (6861.T) is ¥47,343.24, built on a 9.9% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Keyence stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 24.6% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 16.6% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of ¥81,410.00. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Keyence (6861.T) insider trading
We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Keyence Corporation (6861.T). Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.
Stocks below our fair value instead
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.