Is Keyence Corporation (6861.T) overvalued or undervalued?

At a recent price of ¥78,020, Keyence Corporation (6861.T) trades 26% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of ¥57,521 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices 6861.T overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -26.3% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.

One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values 6861.T at about ¥65,784 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.

The valuation discounts Keyence Corporation's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.4%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 75% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 23.9% annual revenue growth for 6861.T. Our base case instead assumes about 17.0% average growth over the forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, 6861.T's modeled DCF value ranges from about ¥50,782 to ¥97,581 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Keyence Corporation would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of 6861.T's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.