9020.T · Intrinsic value
Is East Japan Railway Company (9020.T) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth's valuation lenses put East Japan Railway Company (9020.T) at ¥2,949.50 – ¥10,393.52, too broad a range to say where the delayed market price of ¥3,509.00 sits in it, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
What is 9020.T worth?
- Fair-value range
- ¥2,949.50 – ¥10,393.52
- Market price
- ¥3,509.00
- Gap to fair value
- —
- Verdict
- Too wide to call
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 3.7% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 6.0% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is 9020.T's TickerWorth Score?
Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses
Compared with Industrials companies in Japan
Its strongest point: trades below our estimate of what it's worth. Its weakest: balance sheet looks stretched.
- Value · 68 of 100
Cheaper than 68% of Industrials companies in Japan
- Price vs worth · 100 of 100
- Quality · 57 of 100
More profitable than 57% of Industrials companies in Japan
- Financial health · 5 of 100
Financially stronger than 5% of Industrials companies in Japan
- Growth · 24 of 100
Growing faster than 24% of Industrials companies in Japan
- Momentum · 24 of 100
Outperformed 24% of Industrials companies in Japan over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
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Why 9020.T gets a range, not one number
At a recent price of ¥3,509, East Japan Railway Company (9020.T) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between ¥2,949 and ¥10,394 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts East Japan Railway Company's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.4%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 80% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 3.7% annual revenue growth for 9020.T. Our base case instead compounds to about 6.0% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in slower growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, 9020.T's modeled DCF value ranges from about ¥1,599 to ¥12,630 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what East Japan Railway Company would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of 9020.T's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind 9020.T's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueLive feed — totalRevenue (TTM) | ¥3,142,050,910,000 |
| Base EBIT marginComputed — trailing operatingMargins, held roughly flat | 16.2% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 8% → 7% → 6% → 5% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.1% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 1.00 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesLive feed — sharesOutstanding | 1,129M |
| Market priceLast known price · as of 2026-10-19 13:56 UTC | ¥3,509 |
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What does East Japan Railway Company do?
What does it do?
East Japan Railway Company operates as a passenger railway company in Japan and internationally. The company operates through Transportation, Distribution and service, Real Estate & Hotels, and Others segments. It operates in the Railroads industry (Industrials sector), headquartered in Japan. The company employs roughly 70,623 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns 3.1T in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $16 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 16.2%), after a 37% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 7.5% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks stretched: carries moderate debt (1.6× equity), may struggle to cover its short-term bills (0.8× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
9020.T insider trading
Insider filings are available for US-listed companies only.
Common questions
What is 9020.T's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put East Japan Railway Company (9020.T) between ¥2,949 and ¥10,394 per share, versus a market price of ¥3,509. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is 9020.T overvalued or undervalued?
At ¥3,509 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call 9020.T overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for 9020.T?
A WACC of 7.4% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is East Japan Railway stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for East Japan Railway Company (9020.T) is ¥2,949.50 – ¥10,393.52 against a market price of ¥3,509.00. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
East Japan Railway (9020.T) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for East Japan Railway Company (9020.T) is ¥2,949.50 – ¥10,393.52, built on a 7.4% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into East Japan Railway stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 3.7% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 6.0% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of ¥3,509.00. A model estimate, not investment advice.
East Japan Railway (9020.T) insider trading
We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for East Japan Railway Company (9020.T). Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.
Other ways into the coverage
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.