AAL · Intrinsic value
Is American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) overvalued or undervalued?
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) trades at the delayed market price of $11.88 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of 9.4% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is $14.01 a share (15% below fair value), as of Oct 19, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is AAL undervalued?
- Fair value
- $14.01
- Market price
- $11.88
- Upside to fair value
- +18.0%
- Verdict
- 15% below fair value
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 9.4% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 10.1% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is AAL's TickerWorth Score?
A weaker business than most companies
Compared with Industrials companies in US
Its strongest point: looks cheap on the numbers. Its weakest: profitability is weak.
- Value · 90 of 100
Cheaper than 90% of Industrials companies in US
- Price vs worth · 64 of 100
- Quality · 16 of 100
More profitable than 16% of Industrials companies in US
- Financial health · 19 of 100
Financially stronger than 19% of Industrials companies in US
- Growth · 30 of 100
Growing faster than 30% of Industrials companies in US
- Momentum · 26 of 100
Outperformed 26% of Industrials companies in US over the past year
Confidence: High confidence · Scored
Get the Undervalued Company of the Week.
AAL DCF valuation: where the gap comes from
At a recent price of $11.88, American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) trades 15% below TickerWorth's blended fair value of $14.01 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices AAL undervalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits above the market, an implied +18.0% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
Read the full reasoning
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values AAL at about $15.11 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts American Airlines Group Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.5%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 80% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 9.4% annual revenue growth for AAL. Our base case instead compounds to about 10.1% a year over the same forecast, so the market's implied growth is broadly in line with our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, AAL's modeled DCF value ranges from about $-2.79 to $68.86 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what American Airlines Group Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of AAL's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind AAL's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueLive feed — totalRevenue (TTM) | $58,337,000,000 |
| Base EBIT marginComputed — trailing operatingMargins, held roughly flat | 2.8% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 16% → 13% → 10% → 7% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.3% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 1.33 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesLive feed — sharesOutstanding | 662M |
| Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 14:06 UTC | $11.88 |
Change AAL's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
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What does American Airlines Group Inc. do?
What does it do?
American Airlines Group Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a network air carrier in the United States, Latin America, Atlantic, and Pacific. The company provides scheduled air transportation services for passengers and cargo through its hubs in Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington, D.C., as well as through partner gateways in London, Doha, Madrid, Seattle/Tacoma, Sydney, and Tokyo. It operates in the Airlines industry (Industrials sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 143,400 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $58.3B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $3 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 2.8%), after a 21% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, -0.6% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks stretched: may struggle to cover its short-term bills (0.5× current ratio), and is currently lossmaking.
Who at AAL filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isom Robert D Jr | Director, CEO and President | Shares withheld (tax) | $2,196,499.68 | Form 4 for Isom Robert D Jr (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Isom Robert D Jr | Director, CEO and President | Shares withheld (tax) | $2,147,679.36 | Form 4 for Isom Robert D Jr (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Johnson Stephen L | Vice Chair | Shares withheld (tax) | $717,569.28 | Form 4 for Johnson Stephen L (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Johnson Stephen L | Vice Chair | Shares withheld (tax) | $290,200.32 | Form 4 for Johnson Stephen L (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Johnson Stephen L | Vice Chair | Open-market sale | $458,790.00 | Form 4 for Johnson Stephen L (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Owens Angela | SVP Corporate Controller | Open-market sale | $611,623.11 | Form 4 for Owens Angela (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is AAL's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) is $14.01 per share, versus a market price of $11.88 (15% below fair value).
Is AAL overvalued or undervalued?
On our blended fair value AAL looks undervalued vs fair value at $11.88. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for AAL?
A WACC of 7.5% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is American Airlines Group stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) is $14.01 against a market price of $11.88. Our read: 15% below fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
American Airlines Group (AAL) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) is $14.01, built on a 7.5% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into American Airlines Group stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 9.4% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 10.1% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $11.88. A model estimate, not investment advice.
American Airlines Group (AAL) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL): Isom Robert D Jr, Director, CEO and President, shares withheld (tax) on 2026-09-20. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
How does AAL compare with its peers?
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Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.