AAP · Intrinsic value
Is Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) at $15.97 – $103.23, too broad a range to say where the delayed market price of $44.78 sits in it, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
What is AAP worth?
- Fair-value range
- $15.97 – $103.23
- Market price
- $44.78
- Gap to fair value
- —
- Verdict
- Too wide to call
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 6.1% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 1.6% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is AAP's TickerWorth Score?
Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses
Compared with Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Its strongest point: growing quickly. Its weakest: profitability is weak.
- Value · 60 of 100
Cheaper than 60% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Price vs worth · 45 of 100
- Quality · 31 of 100
More profitable than 31% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Financial health · 46 of 100
Financially stronger than 46% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Growth · 71 of 100
Growing faster than 71% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Momentum · 48 of 100
Outperformed 48% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US over the past year
Confidence: Low confidence · Scored
Get the Undervalued Company of the Week.
Why AAP gets a range, not one number
At a recent price of $44.78, Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $15.97 and $103.23 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.1%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 92% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is unusually high — most of the answer comes from a single assumption about the far future, so treat this figure as low-confidence and lean on the multiples alongside it.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 6.1% annual revenue growth for AAP. Our base case instead compounds to about 1.6% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, AAP's modeled DCF value ranges from about $-5.54 to $89.72 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Advance Auto Parts, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of AAP's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind AAP's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueLive feed — totalRevenue (TTM) | $8,622,000,000 |
| Base EBIT marginComputed — trailing operatingMargins, held roughly flat | 5.5% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | -1% → 0% → 2% → 3% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.3% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 1.03 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesLive feed — sharesOutstanding | 60M |
| Market priceLast known price · as of 2026-10-19 17:43 UTC | $44.78 |
Change AAP's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does Advance Auto Parts, Inc. do?
What does it do?
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. provides automotive aftermarket parts. It operates in the Auto Parts industry (Consumer Cyclical sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 28,274 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $8.6B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $6 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 5.5%), after a 45% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 1.0% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks mixed: carries heavy debt (2.5× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (1.7× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at AAP filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKelly Shane M | Director, Director, President and CEO | Shares withheld (tax) | $486,644.35 | Form 4 for OKelly Shane M (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Johnson Richard A | Director | Grant / award | $1,040.78 | Form 4 for Johnson Richard A (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| JAMISON CYNTHIA T | Director | Grant / award | $921.48 | Form 4 for JAMISON CYNTHIA T (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Windom Brent | Director | Grant / award | $2,419.10 | Form 4 for Windom Brent (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| LEE EUGENE I JR | Director | Grant / award | $21,671.05 | Form 4 for LEE EUGENE I JR (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Smith Gregory L | Director | Grant / award | $2,419.10 | Form 4 for Smith Gregory L (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is AAP's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) between $15.97 and $103.23 per share, versus a market price of $44.78. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is AAP overvalued or undervalued?
At $44.78 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call AAP overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for AAP?
A WACC of 7.1% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Advance Auto Parts stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) is $15.97 – $103.23 against a market price of $44.78. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Advance Auto Parts (AAP) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) is $15.97 – $103.23, built on a 7.1% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Advance Auto Parts stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 6.1% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 1.6% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $44.78. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Advance Auto Parts (AAP) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP): OKelly Shane M, Director, Director, President and CEO, shares withheld (tax) on 2026-09-18. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Other ways into the coverage
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.