Is Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (ACLS) overvalued or undervalued?

At a recent price of $110.77, Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (ACLS) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $37.93 and $311.79 per share, and they disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.

The valuation discounts Axcelis Technologies, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 13.4%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 62% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — ACLS would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against the roughly 7.3% average our base case assumes. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, ACLS's modeled DCF value ranges from about $32.23 to $46.93 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Axcelis Technologies, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of ACLS's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.