AJG · Intrinsic value
Is Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth publishes a fair-value range of $278.79 – $278.79 for Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG), against the delayed market price of $253.01: priced below our range. It is a range, not a single number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate; every input is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
What is AJG worth?
- Fair-value range
- $278.79 – $278.79
- Market price
- $253.01
- Gap to fair value
- —
- Verdict
- Priced below our range
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 23.9% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 16.6% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is AJG's TickerWorth Score?
Scores lower than most companies we compare it with
Compared with Financial Services companies in US
Its strongest point: growing quickly. Its weakest: looks expensive on the numbers.
- Value · 27 of 100
Cheaper than 27% of Financial Services companies in US
- Price vs worth · 58 of 100
- Quality · 24 of 100
More profitable than 24% of Financial Services companies in US
- Financial health · 28 of 100
Financially stronger than 28% of Financial Services companies in US
- Growth · 64 of 100
Growing faster than 64% of Financial Services companies in US
- Momentum · 65 of 100
Outperformed 65% of Financial Services companies in US over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
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Why AJG gets a range, not one number
At a recent price of $253.01, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) sits below every lens we ran: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $278.79 and $278.79 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.3%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 82% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 23.9% annual revenue growth for AJG. Our base case instead compounds to about 16.6% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, AJG's modeled DCF value ranges from about $107.46 to $413.51 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of AJG's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind AJG's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueARTHUR J. GALLAGHER & CO. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001628280-26-008662): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 full year. | $13,942,000,000 |
| Base EBIT marginARTHUR J. GALLAGHER & CO. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001628280-26-008662): derived: revenue 13,942,000,000 − CostsAndExpenses 12,071,000,000 = 1,871,000,000 (no operating-income tag) = 13.42%, FY2025. | 13.4% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 30% → 24% → 17% → 10% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.1% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 0.55 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesARTHUR J. GALLAGHER & CO. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001628280-26-008662): WeightedAverageNumberOfSharesOutstandingBasic = 256,100,000 shares, FY2025. | 256M |
| Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 20:14 UTC | $253.01 |
Change AJG's assumptions
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What does Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. do?
What does it do?
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance and reinsurance brokerage, consulting, and third-party property/casualty claims settlement and administration services to entities and individuals worldwide. It operates in the Insurance Brokers industry (Financial Services sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 67,456 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $13.9B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $19 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 19.2%), after a 43% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 10.4% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks mixed: carries modest debt (0.6× equity), can just cover its short-term bills (1.1× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at AJG filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CARY RICHARD C | Controller, CAO | Open-market sale | $252,858.30 | Form 4 for CARY RICHARD C (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Gallagher Patrick Murphy | Chief Operating Officer | Gift | — | Form 4 for Gallagher Patrick Murphy (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| GALLAGHER J PATRICK JR | Director, CEO | Gift | — | Form 4 for GALLAGHER J PATRICK JR (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Hudson Scott R | Vice President | Option exercise | $1,034,040.00 | Form 4 for Hudson Scott R (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Hudson Scott R | Vice President | Open-market sale | $3,169,596.00 | Form 4 for Hudson Scott R (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Miskel Christopher C. | Director | Grant / award | $40,000.06 | Form 4 for Miskel Christopher C. (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is AJG's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) between $278.79 and $278.79 per share, versus a market price of $253.01. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is AJG overvalued or undervalued?
At $253.01 the price sits below every lens we ran. We don't call AJG overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for AJG?
A WACC of 7.3% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Arthur J. Gallagher stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) is $278.79 – $278.79 against a market price of $253.01. Priced below our range. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) is $278.79 – $278.79, built on a 7.3% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Arthur J. Gallagher stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 23.9% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 16.6% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $253.01. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG): CARY RICHARD C, Controller, CAO, open-market sale on 2026-09-15. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Other ways into the coverage
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.