ALAB · Intrinsic value
Is Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth publishes a fair-value range of $82.02 – $82.02 for Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB), against the delayed market price of $285.82: priced above our range. It is a range, not a single number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
What is ALAB worth?
- Fair-value range
- $82.02 – $82.02
- Market price
- $285.82
- Gap to fair value
- —
- Verdict
- Priced above our range
Reverse DCF, on our cash-flow model rather than the range above: no growth rate up to 300%/yr justifies the price under these economics
What is ALAB's TickerWorth Score?
Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses
Compared with Technology companies in US
Its strongest point: growing quickly. Its weakest: looks expensive on the numbers.
- Value · 9 of 100
Cheaper than 9% of Technology companies in US
- Price vs worth · 0 of 100
- Quality · 77 of 100
More profitable than 77% of Technology companies in US
- Financial health · 75 of 100
Financially stronger than 75% of Technology companies in US
- Growth · 91 of 100
Growing faster than 91% of Technology companies in US
- Momentum · 63 of 100
Outperformed 63% of Technology companies in US over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
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Why ALAB gets a range, not one number
At a recent price of $285.82, Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) sits above every lens we ran: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $82.02 and $82.02 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts Astera Labs, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 17.0%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About -157% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, ALAB's modeled DCF value ranges from about $7.12 to $7.58 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Astera Labs, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of ALAB's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind ALAB's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueAstera Labs, Inc. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001736297-26-000010): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 full year. | $852,520,000 |
| Base EBIT marginAstera Labs, Inc. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001736297-26-000010): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 173,423,000 / revenue 852,525,000 = 20.34%, FY2025. | 20.3% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 30% → 24% → 17% → 10% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.3% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 2.50 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesAstera Labs, Inc. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001736297-26-000010): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 179,551,000 shares, FY2025. | 180M |
| Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:15 UTC | $285.82 |
Change ALAB's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does Astera Labs, Inc. do?
What does it do?
Astera Labs, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells semiconductor-based connectivity solutions for cloud and AI infrastructure in Taiwan and the United States. It operates in the Semiconductors industry (Technology sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 756 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $1.2B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $23 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 22.7%), after a 75% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 30.7% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks mixed: carries heavy debt (2.6× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (10.1× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at ALAB filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dyckerhoff Stefan A | Director | Open-market sale | $1,318,090.30 | Form 4 for Dyckerhoff Stefan A (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Dyckerhoff Stefan A | Director | Open-market sale | $3,133,707.98 | Form 4 for Dyckerhoff Stefan A (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Dyckerhoff Stefan A | Director | Open-market sale | $248,575.66 | Form 4 for Dyckerhoff Stefan A (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| BARRATT CRAIG H | Director | Grant / award | $21,186.76 | Form 4 for BARRATT CRAIG H (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| HURLSTON MICHAEL E. | Director | Grant / award | $22,433.04 | Form 4 for HURLSTON MICHAEL E. (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Dyckerhoff Stefan A | Director | Grant / award | $21,186.76 | Form 4 for Dyckerhoff Stefan A (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is ALAB's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) between $82.02 and $82.02 per share, versus a market price of $285.82. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is ALAB overvalued or undervalued?
At $285.82 the price sits above every lens we ran. We don't call ALAB overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for ALAB?
A WACC of 17.0% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Astera Labs stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) is $82.02 – $82.02 against a market price of $285.82. Priced above our range. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Astera Labs (ALAB) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) is $82.02 – $82.02, built on a 17.0% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Astera Labs stock?
no growth rate up to 300%/yr justifies the price under these economics This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $285.82. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Astera Labs (ALAB) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB): Dyckerhoff Stefan A, Director, open-market sale on 2026-10-07. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Other ways into the coverage
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.