AMAT · Intrinsic value
Is Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) overvalued or undervalued?
Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) trades at the delayed market price of $409.29 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. TickerWorth's fair value is $271.50 a share (51% above fair value), as of Oct 19, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is AMAT overvalued?
- Fair value
- $271.50
- Market price
- $409.29
- Downside to fair value
- 33.7%
- Verdict
- 51% above fair value
Reverse DCF, on our cash-flow model rather than the fair value above: Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast.
What is AMAT's TickerWorth Score?
Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses
Compared with Technology companies in US
Its strongest point: a profitable, high-quality business. Its weakest: looks expensive on the numbers.
- Value · 31 of 100
Cheaper than 31% of Technology companies in US
- Price vs worth · 23 of 100
- Quality · 75 of 100
More profitable than 75% of Technology companies in US
- Financial health · 64 of 100
Financially stronger than 64% of Technology companies in US
- Growth · 47 of 100
Growing faster than 47% of Technology companies in US
- Momentum · 68 of 100
Outperformed 68% of Technology companies in US over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
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AMAT DCF valuation: what the price assumes
At a recent price of $409.29, Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) trades 51% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $271.50 per share. For this company that blend leans on peer multiples: our discounted-cash-flow model holds margins flat and fades growth toward a long-run rate, which systematically understates a business growing this fast, so its figure (about $111.61) is shown as a reference beside the range rather than blended into it. Our estimate sits below the market — read that as a statement about how the market prices AMAT against comparable companies, not as a finding that it is overvalued on cash flow. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts Applied Materials, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 12.6%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 65% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — AMAT would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against about 10.1% a year compounded in our base case. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, AMAT's modeled DCF value ranges from about $91.96 to $143.95 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Applied Materials, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of AMAT's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind AMAT's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueAPPLIED MATERIALS INC /DE FY2025 10-K (accession 0001628280-25-056742): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 full year. | $28,368,000,000 |
| Base EBIT marginAPPLIED MATERIALS INC /DE FY2025 10-K (accession 0001628280-25-056742): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 8,289,000,000 / revenue 28,368,000,000 = 29.22%, FY2025. | 29.2% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 16% → 13% → 10% → 7% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.2% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 1.59 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesAPPLIED MATERIALS INC /DE FY2025 10-K (accession 0001628280-25-056742): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 808,000,000 shares, FY2025. | 808M |
| Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:15 UTC | $409.29 |
Change AMAT's assumptions
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What does Applied Materials, Inc. do?
What does it do?
Applied Materials, Inc. provides materials engineering solutions, equipment, services, and software to the semiconductor and related industries in the United States, China, Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Southeast Asia, Europe, and internationally. It operates in the Semiconductor Equipment & Materials industry (Technology sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 38,900 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $30.8B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $34 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 33.7%), after a 49% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 30.1% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks solid: carries modest debt (0.3× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (2.4× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at AMAT filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sanders Adam | Corp. Controller & CAO | Open-market sale | $394,807.45 | Form 4 for Sanders Adam (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Sanders Adam | Corp. Controller & CAO | Shares withheld (tax) | $142,381.70 | Form 4 for Sanders Adam (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Deane Timothy M | SVP, Applied Global Services | Shares withheld (tax) | $1,399,469.20 | Form 4 for Deane Timothy M (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| BRUNER JUDY | Director | Open-market sale | $465,000.00 | Form 4 for BRUNER JUDY (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Palkhiwala Akash J. | Director | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for Palkhiwala Akash J. (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Hill Brice | SVP, CFO | Open-market sale | $3,594,375.75 | Form 4 for Hill Brice (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is AMAT's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) is $271.50 per share, versus a market price of $409.29 (51% above fair value).
Is AMAT overvalued or undervalued?
Our cash-flow model understates a business growing this fast, so we don't call AMAT overvalued on it. Against a blend that leans on peer multiples, the price of $409.29 sits 51% above our estimate. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for AMAT?
A WACC of 12.6% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Applied Materials stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) is $271.50 against a market price of $409.29. Our read: 51% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Applied Materials (AMAT) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) is $271.50, built on a 12.6% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Applied Materials stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $409.29. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Applied Materials (AMAT) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT): Sanders Adam, Corp. Controller & CAO, open-market sale on 2026-10-02. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
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Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.