ATO · Intrinsic value
Is Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) overvalued or undervalued?
Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) trades at the delayed market price of $164.74 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of 21.5% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is $109.84 a share (50% above fair value), as of Oct 19, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is ATO overvalued?
- Fair value
- $109.84
- Market price
- $164.74
- Downside to fair value
- 33.3%
- Verdict
- 50% above fair value
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 21.5% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 4.7% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is ATO's TickerWorth Score?
Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses
Compared with Utilities companies in US
Its strongest point: a profitable, high-quality business. Its weakest: trades above our estimate of what it's worth.
- Value · 37 of 100
Cheaper than 37% of Utilities companies in US
- Price vs worth · 17 of 100
- Quality · 84 of 100
More profitable than 84% of Utilities companies in US
- Financial health · 78 of 100
Financially stronger than 78% of Utilities companies in US
- Growth · 47 of 100
Growing faster than 47% of Utilities companies in US
- Momentum · 45 of 100
Outperformed 45% of Utilities companies in US over the past year
Confidence: High confidence · Scored
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ATO DCF valuation: what the price assumes
At a recent price of $164.74, Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) trades 50% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $109.84 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices ATO overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -33.3% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
Read the full reasoning
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values ATO at about $57.34 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts Atmos Energy Corporation's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.2%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 79% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 21.5% annual revenue growth for ATO. Our base case instead compounds to about 4.7% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, ATO's modeled DCF value ranges from about $21.50 to $173.28 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Atmos Energy Corporation would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of ATO's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind ATO's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueATMOS ENERGY CORP FY2025 10-K (accession 0000731802-25-000056): us-gaap:Revenues, FY2025 full year. | $4,702,760,000 |
| Base EBIT marginATMOS ENERGY CORP FY2025 10-K (accession 0000731802-25-000056): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 1,559,971,000 / revenue 4,702,755,000 = 33.17%, FY2025. | 33.2% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 5% → 5% → 5% → 4% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.1% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 0.57 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesATMOS ENERGY CORP FY2025 10-K (accession 0000731802-25-000056): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 160,573,000 shares, FY2025. | 161M |
| Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 22:16 UTC | $164.74 |
Change ATO's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does Atmos Energy Corporation do?
What does it do?
Atmos Energy Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the regulated natural gas distribution, and pipeline and storage businesses in the United States. It operates through two segments, Distribution, and Pipeline and Storage. It operates in the Utilities - Regulated Gas industry (Utilities sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 5,487 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $4.7B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $37 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 37.2%), after a 62% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 28.5% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks stretched: carries modest debt (0.7× equity), may struggle to cover its short-term bills (0.8× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
ATO insider trading
We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Atmos Energy Corporation. Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.
Common questions
What is ATO's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) is $109.84 per share, versus a market price of $164.74 (50% above fair value).
Is ATO overvalued or undervalued?
On our blended fair value ATO looks overvalued vs fair value at $164.74. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for ATO?
A WACC of 7.2% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Atmos Energy stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) is $109.84 against a market price of $164.74. Our read: 50% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Atmos Energy (ATO) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) is $109.84, built on a 7.2% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Atmos Energy stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 21.5% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 4.7% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $164.74. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Atmos Energy (ATO) insider trading
We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO). Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.
Stocks below our fair value instead
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.