AUR · Intrinsic value
Is Aurora Innovation, Inc. (AUR) overvalued or undervalued?
TickerWorth's dcf fair value for Aurora Innovation, Inc. (AUR) is $0.57 a share, against the delayed market price of $4.99 (775% above fair value), as of Oct 19, 2026. no growth rate up to 300%/yr justifies the price under these economics It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is AUR overvalued?
- DCF fair value
- $0.57
- Market price
- $4.99
- Downside to fair value
- 88.6%
- Verdict
- 775% above fair value
Reverse DCF, on our cash-flow model rather than the fair value above: no growth rate up to 300%/yr justifies the price under these economics
What is AUR's TickerWorth Score?
Priced richly vs peers — the business scores well
Compared with Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Its strongest point: growing quickly. Its weakest: profitability is weak.
- Value · 24 of 100
Cheaper than 24% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Price vs worth · — of 100
- Quality · 0 of 100
More profitable than almost none of the Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Financial health · 70 of 100
Financially stronger than 70% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Growth · 100 of 100
Growing faster than virtually every one of the Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Momentum · 51 of 100
Outperformed 51% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
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AUR DCF valuation: what the price assumes
At a recent price of $4.99, Aurora Innovation, Inc. (AUR) trades 775% above TickerWorth's base-case discounted-cash-flow (DCF) fair value of $0.57 per share — meaning the market currently prices AUR overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -88.6% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts Aurora Innovation, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 16.9%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 56% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, AUR's modeled DCF value ranges from about $0.57 to $0.57 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Aurora Innovation, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of AUR's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind AUR's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueLive feed — totalRevenue (TTM) | $5,000,000 |
| Base EBIT marginComputed — trailing operatingMargins, held roughly flat | 2.0% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 30% → 24% → 17% → 10% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.2% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 2.50 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesLive feed — sharesOutstanding | 2,004M |
| Market priceLast known price · as of 2026-10-19 19:22 UTC | $4.99 |
Change AUR's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does Aurora Innovation, Inc. do?
What does it do?
Aurora Innovation, Inc. engages in the self-driving technology business in the United States. It operates in the Auto Parts industry (Consumer Cyclical sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 1,900 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $3M in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $0 is left as operating profit (operating margin of -13300.0%), after a 0% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 0.0% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks mixed: carries heavy debt (4.2× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (11.4× current ratio), and is currently lossmaking.
Who at AUR filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wehner David M. | Director | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for Wehner David M. (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Bagley Brittany | Director | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for Bagley Brittany (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Uber Technologies, Inc | 10% owner | Open-market sale | $182,238,436.26 | Form 4 for Uber Technologies, Inc (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Fisher Ossa | President | Shares withheld (tax) | $435,742.20 | Form 4 for Fisher Ossa (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Maday David | Chief Financial Officer | Shares withheld (tax) | $337,354.40 | Form 4 for Maday David (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| WEBB SHELLEY | See Remarks | Shares withheld (tax) | $258,533.80 | Form 4 for WEBB SHELLEY (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is AUR's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's base-case DCF fair value for Aurora Innovation, Inc. (AUR) is $0.57 per share, versus a market price of $4.99 (775% above fair value).
Is AUR overvalued or undervalued?
On our DCF model AUR looks overvalued vs fair value at $4.99. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for AUR?
A WACC of 16.9% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Aurora Innovation stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's dcf fair value for Aurora Innovation, Inc. (AUR) is $0.57 against a market price of $4.99. Our read: 775% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Aurora Innovation (AUR) DCF valuation and fair value
Our dcf fair value for Aurora Innovation, Inc. (AUR) is $0.57, built on a 16.9% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Aurora Innovation stock?
no growth rate up to 300%/yr justifies the price under these economics This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $4.99. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Aurora Innovation (AUR) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Aurora Innovation, Inc. (AUR): Wehner David M., Director, grant / award on 2026-10-01. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Stocks below our fair value instead
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.