AVB · Intrinsic value
Is AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB) overvalued or undervalued?
AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB) trades at the delayed market price of $184.06 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. TickerWorth's dcf fair value is $37.00 a share (397% above fair value), as of Oct 19, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is AVB overvalued?
- DCF fair value
- $37.00
- Market price
- $184.06
- Downside to fair value
- 79.9%
- Verdict
- 397% above fair value
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast.
What is AVB's TickerWorth Score?
Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses
Compared with Real Estate companies in US
Its strongest point: recent price trend has been strong. Its weakest: growth is slow or negative.
- Value · 49 of 100
Cheaper than 49% of Real Estate companies in US
- Price vs worth · — of 100
- Quality · 55 of 100
More profitable than 55% of Real Estate companies in US
- Financial health · 44 of 100
Financially stronger than 44% of Real Estate companies in US
- Growth · 20 of 100
Growing faster than 20% of Real Estate companies in US
- Momentum · 85 of 100
Outperformed 85% of Real Estate companies in US over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
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AVB DCF valuation: what the price assumes
At a recent price of $184.06, AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB) trades 397% above TickerWorth's base-case discounted-cash-flow (DCF) fair value of $37.00 per share — meaning the market currently prices AVB overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -79.9% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts AvalonBay Communities Inc's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 8.0%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 78% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — AVB would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against about 3.1% a year compounded in our base case. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, AVB's modeled DCF value ranges from about $7.54 to $115.77 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what AvalonBay Communities Inc would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of AVB's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind AVB's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueLive feed — totalRevenue (TTM) | $3,083,520,000 |
| Base EBIT marginComputed — trailing operatingMargins, held roughly flat | 30.6% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 2% → 3% → 3% → 4% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.1% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 0.77 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesLive feed — sharesOutstanding | 143M |
| Market priceLive feed — delayed quote · as of 2026-10-19T20:13:12+00:00 | $184.06 |
Change AVB's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does AvalonBay Communities Inc do?
What does it do?
AvalonBay Communities, Inc., a member of S&P 500, is an equity REIT. The firm develops, redevelops, acquires and manages apartment communities in leading metropolitan areas in Boston, Massachusetts, the New York/New Jersey Metro area, the Mid-Atlantic, Seattle, Washington, and Northern and Southern California, as well as in the Company's expansion regions of Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte, North Carolina, Southeast Florida, Dallas and Austin, Texas, and Denver, Colorado. It operates in the REIT - Residential industry (Real Estate sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 3,011 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $3.1B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $31 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 30.6%), after a 63% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 33.3% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks stretched: carries modest debt (0.8× equity), may struggle to cover its short-term bills (0.3× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
AVB insider trading
Insider filings are available for US-listed companies only.
Common questions
What is AVB's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's base-case DCF fair value for AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB) is $37.00 per share, versus a market price of $184.06 (397% above fair value).
Is AVB overvalued or undervalued?
On our DCF model AVB looks overvalued vs fair value at $184.06. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for AVB?
A WACC of 8.0% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is AvalonBay Communities stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's dcf fair value for AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB) is $37.00 against a market price of $184.06. Our read: 397% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
AvalonBay Communities (AVB) DCF valuation and fair value
Our dcf fair value for AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB) is $37.00, built on a 8.0% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into AvalonBay Communities stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $184.06. A model estimate, not investment advice.
AvalonBay Communities (AVB) insider trading
We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB). Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.
Stocks below our fair value instead
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.