AWK · Intrinsic value
Is American Water Works Company, Inc. (AWK) overvalued or undervalued?
American Water Works Company, Inc. (AWK) trades at the delayed market price of $133.57 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of 13.2% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is $89.27 a share (50% above fair value), as of Oct 19, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is AWK overvalued?
- Fair value
- $89.27
- Market price
- $133.57
- Downside to fair value
- 33.2%
- Verdict
- 50% above fair value
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 13.2% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 5.0% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is AWK's TickerWorth Score?
Expensive vs our estimate — the business scores well
Compared with Utilities companies in US
Its strongest point: a profitable, high-quality business. Its weakest: looks expensive on the numbers.
- Value · 26 of 100
Cheaper than 26% of Utilities companies in US
- Price vs worth · 16 of 100
- Quality · 86 of 100
More profitable than 86% of Utilities companies in US
- Financial health · 47 of 100
Financially stronger than 47% of Utilities companies in US
- Growth · 43 of 100
Growing faster than 43% of Utilities companies in US
- Momentum · 54 of 100
Outperformed 54% of Utilities companies in US over the past year
Confidence: High confidence · Scored
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AWK DCF valuation: what the price assumes
At a recent price of $133.57, American Water Works Company, Inc. (AWK) trades 50% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $89.27 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices AWK overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -33.2% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
Read the full reasoning
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values AWK at about $80.21 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts American Water Works Company, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.0%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 81% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 13.2% annual revenue growth for AWK. Our base case instead compounds to about 5.0% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, AWK's modeled DCF value ranges from about $36.75 to $232.07 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what American Water Works Company, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of AWK's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind AWK's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueAMERICAN WATER WORKS COMPANY, INC. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001410636-26-000034): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 full year. | $5,121,000,000 |
| Base EBIT marginAMERICAN WATER WORKS COMPANY, INC. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001410636-26-000034): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 1,879,000,000 / revenue 5,121,000,000 = 36.69%, FY2025. | 36.7% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 6% → 6% → 5% → 5% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.1% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 0.57 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesAMERICAN WATER WORKS COMPANY, INC. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001410636-26-000034): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 195,000,000 shares, FY2025. | 195M |
| Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 22:16 UTC | $133.57 |
Change AWK's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does American Water Works Company, Inc. do?
What does it do?
American Water Works Company, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides water and wastewater services in the United States. It offers water and wastewater services on military installations; and undertakes contracts with municipal customers, primarily to operate and manage water and wastewater facilities, as well as offers other related services. It operates in the Utilities - Regulated Water industry (Utilities sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 7,000 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $5.1B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $41 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 40.7%), after a 61% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 21.3% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks stretched: carries moderate debt (1.4× equity), may struggle to cover its short-term bills (0.5× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
AWK insider trading
We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for American Water Works Company, Inc.. Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.
Common questions
What is AWK's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for American Water Works Company, Inc. (AWK) is $89.27 per share, versus a market price of $133.57 (50% above fair value).
Is AWK overvalued or undervalued?
On our blended fair value AWK looks overvalued vs fair value at $133.57. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for AWK?
A WACC of 7.0% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is American Water Works stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for American Water Works Company, Inc. (AWK) is $89.27 against a market price of $133.57. Our read: 50% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
American Water Works (AWK) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for American Water Works Company, Inc. (AWK) is $89.27, built on a 7.0% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into American Water Works stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 13.2% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 5.0% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $133.57. A model estimate, not investment advice.
American Water Works (AWK) insider trading
We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for American Water Works Company, Inc. (AWK). Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.
Stocks below our fair value instead
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.