AXTI · Intrinsic value
Is AXT, Inc. (AXTI) overvalued or undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for AXT, Inc. (AXTI) is $20.41 a share, against the delayed market price of $56.74 (178% above fair value), as of Oct 19, 2026. no growth rate up to 300%/yr justifies the price under these economics It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is AXTI overvalued?
- Fair value
- $20.41
- Market price
- $56.74
- Downside to fair value
- 64.0%
- Verdict
- 178% above fair value
Reverse DCF, on our cash-flow model rather than the fair value above: no growth rate up to 300%/yr justifies the price under these economics
What is AXTI's TickerWorth Score?
Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses
Compared with Technology companies in US
Its strongest point: growing quickly. Its weakest: trades above our estimate of what it's worth.
- Value · 22 of 100
Cheaper than 22% of Technology companies in US
- Price vs worth · 0 of 100
- Quality · 35 of 100
More profitable than 35% of Technology companies in US
- Financial health · 87 of 100
Financially stronger than 87% of Technology companies in US
- Growth · 96 of 100
Growing faster than 96% of Technology companies in US
- Momentum · 64 of 100
Outperformed 64% of Technology companies in US over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
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AXTI DCF valuation: what the price assumes
At a recent price of $56.74, AXT, Inc. (AXTI) trades 178% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $20.41 per share. For this company that blend leans on peer multiples: our discounted-cash-flow model holds margins flat and fades growth toward a long-run rate, which systematically understates a business growing this fast, so its figure (about $1.45) is shown as a reference beside the range rather than blended into it. Our estimate sits below the market — read that as a statement about how the market prices AXTI against comparable companies, not as a finding that it is overvalued on cash flow. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts AXT, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 14.1%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 51% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, AXTI's modeled DCF value ranges from about $0.75 to $1.91 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what AXT, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of AXTI's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind AXTI's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueLive feed — totalRevenue (TTM) | $125,510,000 |
| Base EBIT marginComputed — reported operating margin exceeded the EBITDA margin (impossible); held to 8.7% so D&A stays positive | 8.7% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 30% → 24% → 17% → 10% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.2% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 1.92 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesLive feed — sharesOutstanding | 66M |
| Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 15:19 UTC | $56.74 |
Change AXTI's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does AXT, Inc. do?
What does it do?
AXT, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and distributes compound and single element semiconductor substrates. It operates in the Semiconductor Equipment & Materials industry (Technology sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 1,541 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $126M in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $22 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 21.9%), after a 32% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 3.2% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks solid: carries modest debt (0.1× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (4.8× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at AXTI filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEBLANC LEONARD J | Director | Open-market sale | $384,280.40 | Form 4 for LEBLANC LEONARD J (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| LEBLANC LEONARD J | Director | Open-market sale | $176,630.00 | Form 4 for LEBLANC LEONARD J (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| CHEN JESSE | Director | Open-market sale | $711,284.12 | Form 4 for CHEN JESSE (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| CHANG DAVID C | Director | Open-market sale | $926,392.11 | Form 4 for CHANG DAVID C (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| YOUNG MORRIS S | Director, CEO | Gift | — | Form 4 for YOUNG MORRIS S (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| CHEN JESSE | Director | Open-market sale | $1,245,059.40 | Form 4 for CHEN JESSE (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is AXTI's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for AXT, Inc. (AXTI) is $20.41 per share, versus a market price of $56.74 (178% above fair value).
Is AXTI overvalued or undervalued?
Our cash-flow model understates a business growing this fast, so we don't call AXTI overvalued on it. Against a blend that leans on peer multiples, the price of $56.74 sits 178% above our estimate. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for AXTI?
A WACC of 14.1% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is AXT stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for AXT, Inc. (AXTI) is $20.41 against a market price of $56.74. Our read: 178% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
AXT (AXTI) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for AXT, Inc. (AXTI) is $20.41, built on a 14.1% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into AXT stock?
no growth rate up to 300%/yr justifies the price under these economics This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $56.74. A model estimate, not investment advice.
AXT (AXTI) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for AXT, Inc. (AXTI): LEBLANC LEONARD J, Director, open-market sale on 2026-08-17. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Stocks below our fair value instead
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.