CCL · Intrinsic value
Is Carnival Corporation Ltd. (CCL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Carnival Corporation Ltd. (CCL) at $13.93 – $64.18, too broad a range to say where the delayed market price of $26.43 sits in it, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
What is CCL worth?
- Fair-value range
- $13.93 – $64.18
- Market price
- $26.43
- Gap to fair value
- —
- Verdict
- Too wide to call
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast.
What is CCL's TickerWorth Score?
Cheap against our estimate — but a weaker business
Compared with Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Its strongest point: trades below our estimate of what it's worth. Its weakest: balance sheet looks stretched.
- Value · 70 of 100
Cheaper than 70% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Price vs worth · 100 of 100
- Quality · 74 of 100
More profitable than 74% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Financial health · 20 of 100
Financially stronger than 20% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Growth · 36 of 100
Growing faster than 36% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Momentum · 54 of 100
Outperformed 54% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
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Why CCL gets a range, not one number
At a recent price of $26.43, Carnival Corporation Ltd. (CCL) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $13.93 and $64.18 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts Carnival Corporation Ltd.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 11.9%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 62% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — CCL would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against about 4.1% a year compounded in our base case. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, CCL's modeled DCF value ranges from about $-2.61 to $6.68 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Carnival Corporation Ltd. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of CCL's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind CCL's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueCarnival Corp Ltd. FY2025 10-K (accession 0000815097-26-000007): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 full year. | $26,622,000,000 |
| Base EBIT marginCarnival Corp Ltd. FY2025 10-K (accession 0000815097-26-000007): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 4,483,000,000 / revenue 26,622,000,000 = 16.84%, FY2025. | 16.8% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 4% → 4% → 4% → 4% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.2% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 2.38 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesCarnival Corp Ltd. FY2025 10-K (accession 0000815097-26-000007): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 1,402,000,000 shares, FY2025. | 1,402M |
| Market priceLast known price · as of 2026-10-19 21:41 UTC | $26.43 |
Change CCL's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
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What does Carnival Corporation Ltd. do?
What does it do?
Carnival Corporation Ltd., a cruise company, provides leisure travel services. The company operates through four segments: North America Cruise Operations, Europe Cruise Operations, Cruise Support, and Tour and Other. It operates in the Travel Services industry (Consumer Cyclical sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 160,000 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $26.6B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $26 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 26.4%), after a 55% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 11.4% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks stretched: carries moderate debt (1.8× equity), may struggle to cover its short-term bills (0.3× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at CCL filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARISON MICKY MEIR | Director, Chairman of the Board | Gift | — | Form 4 for ARISON MICKY MEIR (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| ARISON MICKY MEIR | Director, Chairman of the Board | Gift | — | Form 4 for ARISON MICKY MEIR (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| deynes bettina alejandra | Chief Human Resources Officer | Open-market sale | $1,210,123.56 | Form 4 for deynes bettina alejandra (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| WEIL LAURA A | Director | Shares withheld (tax) | $16,250.08 | Form 4 for WEIL LAURA A (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| SUBOTNICK STUART | Director | Shares withheld (tax) | $16,250.08 | Form 4 for SUBOTNICK STUART (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| SUBOTNICK STUART | Director | Open-market sale | $5.38 | Form 4 for SUBOTNICK STUART (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is CCL's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Carnival Corporation Ltd. (CCL) between $13.93 and $64.18 per share, versus a market price of $26.43. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is CCL overvalued or undervalued?
At $26.43 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call CCL overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for CCL?
A WACC of 11.9% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Carnival stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for Carnival Corporation Ltd. (CCL) is $13.93 – $64.18 against a market price of $26.43. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Carnival (CCL) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for Carnival Corporation Ltd. (CCL) is $13.93 – $64.18, built on a 11.9% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Carnival stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $26.43. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Carnival (CCL) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Carnival Corporation Ltd. (CCL): ARISON MICKY MEIR, Director, Chairman of the Board, gift on 2026-08-25. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Other ways into the coverage
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.