CF · Intrinsic value
Is CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) overvalued or undervalued?
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) trades at the delayed market price of $120.85 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of −8.8% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is $227.49 a share (priced within our range of $85.18 – $274.77). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is CF fairly valued?
- Fair value
- $227.49
- Market price
- $120.85
- Upside to fair value
- +88.2%
- Verdict
- Priced within our range of $85.18 – $274.77
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of −8.8% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 8.1% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is CF's TickerWorth Score?
Scores higher than almost every company we compare it with
Compared with Basic Materials companies in US
Its strongest point: trades below our estimate of what it's worth. Its weakest: growth is slow or negative.
- Value · 69 of 100
Cheaper than 69% of Basic Materials companies in US
- Price vs worth · 100 of 100
- Quality · 77 of 100
More profitable than 77% of Basic Materials companies in US
- Financial health · 72 of 100
Financially stronger than 72% of Basic Materials companies in US
- Growth · 43 of 100
Growing faster than 43% of Basic Materials companies in US
- Momentum · 77 of 100
Outperformed 77% of Basic Materials companies in US over the past year
Confidence: High confidence · Scored
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CF DCF valuation, input by input
TickerWorth's fair value for CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) is $227.49 a share, against the delayed market price of $120.85 (priced within our range of $85.18 – $274.77). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values CF at about $274.77 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.3%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 80% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly -8.8% annual revenue growth for CF. Our base case instead compounds to about 8.1% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in slower growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, CF's modeled DCF value ranges from about $183.12 to $568.53 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what CF Industries Holdings, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of CF's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind CF's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueCF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS, INC. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001324404-26-000007): us-gaap:Revenues, FY2025 full year. | $7,084,000,000 |
| Base EBIT marginCF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS, INC. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001324404-26-000007): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 2,300,000,000 / revenue 7,084,000,000 = 32.47%, FY2025. | 32.5% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 12% → 10% → 8% → 6% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.1% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 0.53 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesCF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS, INC. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001324404-26-000007): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 162,200,000 shares, FY2025. | 162M |
| Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:15 UTC | $120.85 |
Change CF's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does CF Industries Holdings, Inc. do?
What does it do?
CF Industries Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production of ammonia in North America, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Ammonia, Granular Urea, UAN, AN, and Other segments. It operates in the Agricultural Inputs industry (Basic Materials sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 2,900 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $7.7B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $49 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 49.3%), after a 42% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 27.1% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks solid: carries modest debt (0.4× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (4.9× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at CF filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scribner Andrew | EVP and CFO | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for Scribner Andrew (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| DeHaas Deborah L | Director | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for DeHaas Deborah L (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Wagler Theresa E | Director | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for Wagler Theresa E (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| EAVES JOHN W | Director | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for EAVES JOHN W (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Ellerbusch Susan A | Director | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for Ellerbusch Susan A (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Madrazo Yris Jesus | Director | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for Madrazo Yris Jesus (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is CF's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) is $227.49 per share, versus a market price of $120.85 (priced within our range of $85.18 – $274.77).
Is CF overvalued or undervalued?
Priced within our range of $85.18 – $274.77 at $120.85. We don't call CF overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for CF?
A WACC of 7.3% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is CF Industries stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) is $227.49 against a market price of $120.85. Our read: Priced within our range of $85.18 – $274.77. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
CF Industries (CF) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) is $227.49, built on a 7.3% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into CF Industries stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of −8.8% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 8.1% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $120.85. A model estimate, not investment advice.
CF Industries (CF) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF): Scribner Andrew, EVP and CFO, grant / award on 2026-05-26. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.