CHA · Intrinsic value
Is Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) overvalued or undervalued?
Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) trades at the delayed market price of $12.30 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of −13.6% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is $27.21 a share (55% below fair value), as of Oct 19, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is CHA undervalued?
- Fair value
- $27.21
- Market price
- $12.30
- Upside to fair value
- +121.2%
- Verdict
- 55% below fair value
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of −13.6% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 3.3% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is CHA's TickerWorth Score?
Scores higher than almost every company we compare it with
Compared with Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Its strongest point: looks cheap on the numbers.
- Value · 86 of 100
Cheaper than 86% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Price vs worth · 100 of 100
- Quality · 57 of 100
More profitable than 57% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Financial health · 95 of 100
Financially stronger than 95% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Growth · 69 of 100
Growing faster than 69% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Momentum · 64 of 100
Outperformed 64% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US over the past year
Confidence: High confidence · Scored
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CHA DCF valuation: where the gap comes from
At a recent price of $12.30, Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) trades 55% below TickerWorth's blended fair value of $27.21 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices CHA undervalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits above the market, an implied +121.2% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
Read the full reasoning
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values CHA at about $18.70 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts Chagee Holdings Limited's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.0%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 71% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly -13.6% annual revenue growth for CHA. Our base case instead compounds to about 3.3% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in slower growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, CHA's modeled DCF value ranges from about $15.79 to $24.49 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Chagee Holdings Limited would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of CHA's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind CHA's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueChagee Holdings Ltd. FY2025 20-F (accession 0001104659-26-050766): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 full year. | $1,928,840,000 |
| Base EBIT marginChagee Holdings Ltd. FY2025 20-F (accession 0001104659-26-050766): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 1,347,237,000 / revenue 12,907,407,000 = 10.44%, FY2025. | 10.4% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 2% → 3% → 3% → 4% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.2% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 1.10 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesChagee Holdings Ltd. FY2025 20-F (accession 0001104659-26-050766): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 164,714,666 shares, FY2025. | 165M |
| Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:15 UTC | $12.30 |
Change CHA's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does Chagee Holdings Limited do?
What does it do?
Chagee Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, owns, operates, and franchises teahouses under the CHAGEE brand in the People's Republic of China, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and the United States. The company sells freshly made tea drinks, related raw materials, packaging, teahouse equipment, and other supplies. It operates in the Restaurants industry (Consumer Cyclical sector), headquartered in China. The company employs roughly 3,812 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $13.1B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $15 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 15.4%), after a 41% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 10.2% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks solid: carries modest debt (0.2× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (3.4× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at CHA filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wang Yi | Director | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for Wang Yi (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Li Yifan (Frank) | Director | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for Li Yifan (Frank) (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| ZHANG TAISU | Director | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for ZHANG TAISU (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Xu Chi | Vice President | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for Xu Chi (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| HU WEI JEN | Vice President | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for HU WEI JEN (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| HUANG HONGFEI | Chief Financial Officer | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for HUANG HONGFEI (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is CHA's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) is $27.21 per share, versus a market price of $12.30 (55% below fair value).
Is CHA overvalued or undervalued?
On our blended fair value CHA looks undervalued vs fair value at $12.30. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for CHA?
A WACC of 10.0% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Chagee stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) is $27.21 against a market price of $12.30. Our read: 55% below fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Chagee (CHA) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) is $27.21, built on a 10.0% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Chagee stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of −13.6% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 3.3% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $12.30. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Chagee (CHA) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA): Wang Yi, Director, grant / award on 2026-09-22. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
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Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.