COL.AX · Intrinsic value
Is Coles Group Limited (COL.AX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Coles Group Limited (COL.AX) at A$6.38 – A$38.28, too broad a range to say where the delayed market price of A$23.81 sits in it, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
What is COL.AX worth?
- Fair-value range
- A$6.38 – A$38.28
- Market price
- A$23.81
- Gap to fair value
- —
- Verdict
- Too wide to call
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 2.8% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 3.5% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is COL.AX's TickerWorth Score?
Scores lower than most companies we compare it with
Compared with Consumer Defensive companies in Australia
Its strongest point: recent price trend has been strong. Its weakest: balance sheet looks stretched.
- Value · 50 of 100
Cheaper than 50% of Consumer Defensive companies worldwide
- Price vs worth · 43 of 100
- Quality · 31 of 100
More profitable than 31% of Consumer Defensive companies worldwide
- Financial health · 11 of 100
Financially stronger than 11% of Consumer Defensive companies worldwide
- Growth · 55 of 100
Growing faster than 55% of Consumer Defensive companies worldwide
- Momentum · 76 of 100
Outperformed 76% of Consumer Defensive companies worldwide over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
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Why COL.AX gets a range, not one number
At a recent price of A$23.81, Coles Group Limited (COL.AX) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between A$6.38 and A$38.28 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts Coles Group Limited's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 6.8%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 82% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 2.8% annual revenue growth for COL.AX. Our base case instead compounds to about 3.5% a year over the same forecast, so the market's implied growth is broadly in line with our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, COL.AX's modeled DCF value ranges from about A$13.36 to A$64.77 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Coles Group Limited would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of COL.AX's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind COL.AX's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueLive feed — totalRevenue (TTM) | A$45,722,000,000 |
| Base EBIT marginComputed — trailing operatingMargins, held roughly flat | 4.7% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 3% → 3% → 4% → 4% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.3% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 0.40 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesLive feed — sharesOutstanding | 1,344M |
| Market priceLast known price · as of 2026-10-19 21:02 UTC | A$23.81 |
Change COL.AX's assumptions
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What does Coles Group Limited do?
What does it do?
Coles Group Limited operates as a grocery retailer in Australia. It operates through the Supermarkets and Liquor segments. It operates in the Grocery Stores industry (Consumer Defensive sector), headquartered in Australia. The company employs roughly 115,000 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $45.7B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $5 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 4.6%), after a 27% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 2.4% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks stretched: carries heavy debt (2.5× equity), may struggle to cover its short-term bills (0.5× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
COL.AX insider trading
Insider filings are available for US-listed companies only.
Common questions
What is COL.AX's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Coles Group Limited (COL.AX) between A$6.38 and A$38.28 per share, versus a market price of A$23.81. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is COL.AX overvalued or undervalued?
At A$23.81 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call COL.AX overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for COL.AX?
A WACC of 6.8% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Coles Group stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for Coles Group Limited (COL.AX) is A$6.38 – A$38.28 against a market price of A$23.81. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Coles Group (COL.AX) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for Coles Group Limited (COL.AX) is A$6.38 – A$38.28, built on a 6.8% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Coles Group stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 2.8% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 3.5% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of A$23.81. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Coles Group (COL.AX) insider trading
We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Coles Group Limited (COL.AX). Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.
Other ways into the coverage
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.