What is DG's intrinsic value?

TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Dollar General Corporation (DG) between $64.17 and $308.80 per share, versus a market price of $134.36. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.

Is DG overvalued or undervalued?

At $134.36 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call DG overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.

What discount rate is used for DG?

A WACC of 7.7% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.

Is Dollar General stock undervalued?

TickerWorth's fair-value range for Dollar General Corporation (DG) is $64.17 – $308.80 against a market price of $134.36. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.

Dollar General (DG) DCF valuation and fair value

Our fair-value range for Dollar General Corporation (DG) is $64.17 – $308.80, built on a 7.7% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.

What growth is priced into Dollar General stock?

Today's price implies revenue growth of −2.3% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 3.7% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $134.36. A model estimate, not investment advice.

Dollar General (DG) insider trading

The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Dollar General Corporation (DG): REARDON KATHLEEN A, EVP & Chief People Officer, open-market sale on 2026-09-03. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.

DG · Intrinsic value

Is Dollar General Corporation (DG) overvalued or undervalued?

Name: Dollar General Corporation (DG) DCF intrinsic value
Creator: TickerWorth

As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Dollar General Corporation (DG) at $64.17 – $308.80, too broad a range to say where the delayed market price of $134.36 sits in it, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.

Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made

Open full DG analysis

What is DG worth?

Backup data source

This price comes from our backup market-data feed.

Fair-value range: $64.17 – $308.80
Market price: $134.36
Gap to fair value: —
Verdict: Too wide to call

Price as of 19 Oct 2026, 12:47 UTC · Prices are delayed.Our valuation lenses disagree too widely on this company for us to publish a single number, so we publish the range instead. We do not call it over- or undervalued from a spread this wide.

Fair-value range against the delayed market price: Too wide to call.

Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of −2.3% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 3.7% a year on average over the same horizon.

What is DG's TickerWorth Score?

C56/100

Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses

Compared with Consumer Defensive companies in US

Its strongest point: trades below our estimate of what it's worth. Its weakest: profitability is weak.

Value · 69 of 100
Cheaper than 69% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
Price vs worth · 82 of 100
Quality · 37 of 100
More profitable than 37% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
Financial health · 35 of 100
Financially stronger than 35% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
Growth · 49 of 100
Growing faster than 49% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
Momentum · 61 of 100
Outperformed 61% of Consumer Defensive companies in US over the past year

Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored 19 Oct 2026, 12:47 UTC

Get the Undervalued Company of the Week.

Where the numbers come from

Hand-researched model

What the modeller flagged

THE BETA DECIDES THE ANSWER MORE THAN ANY OPERATING INPUT. The published 5Y beta of 0.226 would give ~$218/share (+83%); the model uses 0.58 (peer median), giving the value on this page. The price is consistent with a beta of ~0.86 (WACC ~8.9%) on everything else held. If you think DG is a defensive staple that deserves a WMT-like discount rate, the model is about right; if you think its 2023-24 collapse showed equity risk closer to the market's, the price is fair. That disagreement is the honest summary of this model.
TERMINAL VALUE IS ~80% OF ENTERPRISE VALUE - over the line. With a 7.7% WACC and 2.5% growth, the five explicit years carry only a fifth of the answer, so this is a valuation of DG's steady state. Sensitivity across WACC +/-1.5pt and terminal growth +/-1pt runs roughly $100-$292; the implied terminal multiple is ~9.3x EBITDA (after rent), above the ~8.3x the market pays today on this year's guided ex-refund EBITDA - a mild re-rating built into the perpetuity.
YEAR-1 FCF (~$1.43B) IS ~40% BELOW THE FY2025 REPORTED $2.39B, and the gap is explainable: FY2025 included $784M of working-capital release (inventory cut 7% per store), $256M of other non-cash charges and $91M of stock pay that the model treats as costs, and capex rises from $1.24B to a guided $1.45B. On the trailing twelve months to 2026-07-31 FCF was $2.01B, and H1 2026 alone was $738M (vs $1,121M in H1 2025) as inventory was rebuilt. The model's FCF rises to ~$2.1B by FY2030.
THE MARGIN PATH IS THE SOFTEST OPERATING INPUT. Year 1 is pinned to guidance (5.42% ex-refund), and guidance looks conservative - it implies a flat H2 margin after a +50bp H1. FY2027-30 (5.75% to 6.3%) is my judgement, set in the lower half of management's 6%-7% framework. Hitting 7% by FY2030 gives ~$169; stalling at FY2025's ~5.2% forever is roughly what today's price implies.
TIMING: Year 1 is FY2026 (ends 2027-01-29), already half reported. The engine discounts all of it a full year (slightly harsh) while H1's cash is already in the 2026-07-31 balance sheet (slightly generous); the two roughly offset. The Q3 dividend ($0.59/share, ~$130M, payable 2026-10-20) and any H2 buybacks will come out of that cash.
WHAT THE AUTOMATIC MODEL MOST LIKELY GOT WRONG: TickerWorth's auto-DCF reads the published beta (0.226), lifts it only to its 0.40 clamp floor, and lets capex track D&A (~2.5% of sales). In this model, beta 0.40 alone gives $178.52 and capex at 2.5% on top gives $201.03; the record, working-capital-inflated FY2025 free cash flow ($2.39B) points the same way. That is the gap between the auto read and this one.
SBC of $91.5M (0.2% of sales) is expensed inside GAAP operating profit and is not added back; dilution is captured by the weighted-diluted count, which is flat.

Why DG gets a range, not one number

At a recent price of $134.36, Dollar General Corporation (DG) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $64.17 and $308.80 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.

Read the full reasoning

The valuation discounts Dollar General Corporation's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.7%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 80% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly -2.3% annual revenue growth for DG. Our base case instead compounds to about 3.7% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in slower growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, DG's modeled DCF value ranges from about $99.52 to $292.02 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Dollar General Corporation would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of DG's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

Every input behind DG's DCF

Input	Value	Source
Base-year revenueDollar General Q4/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99 (accession 0001104659-26-026697, filed 2026-03-12) + Dollar General FY2025 10-K (accession 0001104659-26-032325, filed 2026-03-20), 52 weeks ended 2026-01-30: Net sales $42,724.4M for the 52 weeks ended 2026-01-30 (FY2025), +5.2% on FY2024's $40,612.3M, on same-store sales +3.0% (traffic +1.6%, average ticket +1.4%) plus new stores (589 opened, 290 closed; 20,893 stores at year end). Consumables are 82% of sales ($35.1B), seasonal 10%, home 5%, apparel 3% - this is a needs-based, mostly-food-and-household business, not a discretionary one. Revenue history on the same XBRL line: $27.8B FY2019, $33.7B FY2020 (pandemic step-up), $34.2B, $37.8B (a 53-week year), $38.7B, $40.6B, $42.7B. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 (26 weeks to 2026-07-31) net sales $22,077.3M, +4.3% on H1 2025 (Q1 +3.4%, Q2 +5.2%), same-store sales +2.0% and +3.5% (Q2 release). Trailing twelve months to 2026-07-31: $43,638M. Used unchanged as the base; the DCF grows it by forecast.revenue_growth.	$42,724,400,000	Dollar General Q4/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99 (accession 0001104659-26-026697, filed 2026-03-12) + Dollar General FY2025 10-K (accession 0001104659-26-032325, filed 2026-03-20), 52 weeks ended 2026-01-30: Net sales $42,724.4M for the 52 weeks ended 2026-01-30 (FY2025), +5.2% on FY2024's $40,612.3M, on same-store sales +3.0% (traffic +1.6%, average ticket +1.4%) plus new stores (589 opened, 290 closed; 20,893 stores at year end). Consumables are 82% of sales ($35.1B), seasonal 10%, home 5%, apparel 3% - this is a needs-based, mostly-food-and-household business, not a discretionary one. Revenue history on the same XBRL line: $27.8B FY2019, $33.7B FY2020 (pandemic step-up), $34.2B, $37.8B (a 53-week year), $38.7B, $40.6B, $42.7B. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 (26 weeks to 2026-07-31) net sales $22,077.3M, +4.3% on H1 2025 (Q1 +3.4%, Q2 +5.2%), same-store sales +2.0% and +3.5% (Q2 release). Trailing twelve months to 2026-07-31: $43,638M. Used unchanged as the base; the DCF grows it by forecast.revenue_growth.
Base EBIT marginDollar General Q4/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99 (accession 0001104659-26-026697, filed 2026-03-12) + Dollar General FY2025 10-K (accession 0001104659-26-032325, filed 2026-03-20), 52 weeks ended 2026-01-30: GAAP operating profit $2,203.7M / net sales $42,724.4M = 5.16%. A clean year: no special items called out (FY2024's 4.22% carried $232M of store-portfolio-optimization charges; ~4.8% without them). Margin history on the same tag: 9.4% FY2016, 8.6%, 8.3%, 8.3% FY2019, 10.5% FY2020 (pandemic), 9.4% FY2021, 8.8% FY2022, then a collapse to 6.3% FY2023 and 4.2% FY2024 on shrink, markdowns, labour and a weaker low-income customer, and a first step back to 5.2% in FY2025 on lower shrink and damages and higher markups. Operating leases: $1.99B of FY2025 operating lease cost (10-K lease note) sits inside cost of goods and SG&A, so this margin is AFTER rent - consistent with leaving the $11.2B of operating-lease liabilities out of net debt. Not used to forecast (Year 1 starts from guidance) but it is one leg of the cyclical peak test; Year 1 (5.42%) sits above it. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 operating profit $1,407.7M = 6.38% of sales (H1 2025 5.54%), of which ~$74M (66bp of Q2 sales) is the net IEEPA tariff refund - ex-refund H1 ~6.04%.	5.2%	Dollar General Q4/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99 (accession 0001104659-26-026697, filed 2026-03-12) + Dollar General FY2025 10-K (accession 0001104659-26-032325, filed 2026-03-20), 52 weeks ended 2026-01-30: GAAP operating profit $2,203.7M / net sales $42,724.4M = 5.16%. A clean year: no special items called out (FY2024's 4.22% carried $232M of store-portfolio-optimization charges; ~4.8% without them). Margin history on the same tag: 9.4% FY2016, 8.6%, 8.3%, 8.3% FY2019, 10.5% FY2020 (pandemic), 9.4% FY2021, 8.8% FY2022, then a collapse to 6.3% FY2023 and 4.2% FY2024 on shrink, markdowns, labour and a weaker low-income customer, and a first step back to 5.2% in FY2025 on lower shrink and damages and higher markups. Operating leases: $1.99B of FY2025 operating lease cost (10-K lease note) sits inside cost of goods and SG&A, so this margin is AFTER rent - consistent with leaving the $11.2B of operating-lease liabilities out of net debt. Not used to forecast (Year 1 starts from guidance) but it is one leg of the cyclical peak test; Year 1 (5.42%) sits above it. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 operating profit $1,407.7M = 6.38% of sales (H1 2025 5.54%), of which ~$74M (66bp of Q2 sales) is the net IEEPA tariff refund - ex-refund H1 ~6.04%.
Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast	4% → 4% → 4% → 4% → 3%	ESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rateUS 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. Shared by every model in this tracker.	5.2%	US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. Shared by every model in this tracker.
BetaESTIMATEAssumption — Yahoo Finance 5Y-monthly beta via yfinance (read 2026-10-05) + own regressions + peer betas: Published 5Y-monthly beta is 0.226; my own 60-month regression of yfinance adjusted monthly closes on the S&P 500 gives 0.227 (so not a data error), 36-month 0.085, 120-month 0.372, and a 2-year weekly regression ~0.00. NORMALIZED UP to 0.58, the median of the published betas of discount/value-retail peers on the same feed (DLTR 0.716, WMT 0.578, OLLI 0.414, BJ 0.166, FIVE 0.943 -> median 0.578), the peer-median method this tracker used for UnitedHealth. CONSERVATIVE vs published: it raises the discount rate and LOWERS the value. Reason: DG's five-year window is dominated by a stock-specific collapse (from the 2022-23 highs to a 52-week low of $95.11 and back to today's level) driven by its own shrink, labour and execution problems - idiosyncratic moves a regression reads as low co-movement, not low risk. At 0.226 DG's cost of equity would be 6.4%, BELOW the ~7.0% it would pay on a new 10-year bond - equity behind BBB/Baa3 debt cannot sensibly cost less than the debt. At 0.58 the cost of equity is 8.14%, ~114bp over the bond. The two lighter normalizations sit higher in value: the 10-year regression 0.372 gives $183.91 and Blume (0.67 x 0.226 + 0.33 = 0.48) gives $164.62; DLTR's 0.716 gives $133.14. THIS IS THE LARGEST SINGLE JUDGEMENT IN THE FILE: each 0.1 of beta is worth roughly $12-15/share around this point ($137.21 at 0.68), and the published 0.226 gives $217.59.	0.58	ESTIMATEAssumption — Yahoo Finance 5Y-monthly beta via yfinance (read 2026-10-05) + own regressions + peer betas: Published 5Y-monthly beta is 0.226; my own 60-month regression of yfinance adjusted monthly closes on the S&P 500 gives 0.227 (so not a data error), 36-month 0.085, 120-month 0.372, and a 2-year weekly regression ~0.00. NORMALIZED UP to 0.58, the median of the published betas of discount/value-retail peers on the same feed (DLTR 0.716, WMT 0.578, OLLI 0.414, BJ 0.166, FIVE 0.943 -> median 0.578), the peer-median method this tracker used for UnitedHealth. CONSERVATIVE vs published: it raises the discount rate and LOWERS the value. Reason: DG's five-year window is dominated by a stock-specific collapse (from the 2022-23 highs to a 52-week low of $95.11 and back to today's level) driven by its own shrink, labour and execution problems - idiosyncratic moves a regression reads as low co-movement, not low risk. At 0.226 DG's cost of equity would be 6.4%, BELOW the ~7.0% it would pay on a new 10-year bond - equity behind BBB/Baa3 debt cannot sensibly cost less than the debt. At 0.58 the cost of equity is 8.14%, ~114bp over the bond. The two lighter normalizations sit higher in value: the 10-year regression 0.372 gives $183.91 and Blume (0.67 x 0.226 + 0.33 = 0.48) gives $164.62; DLTR's 0.716 gives $133.14. THIS IS THE LARGEST SINGLE JUDGEMENT IN THE FILE: each 0.1 of beta is worth roughly $12-15/share around this point ($137.21 at 0.68), and the published 0.226 gives $217.59.
Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. For DG it is not generous: sales compounded ~7% a year FY2016-FY2025 ($22.0B to $42.7B), but that was a store-count build-out now slowing to ~2% unit growth on a 21,000-store base; long-run growth of a mature, consumables-led chain should track nominal consumer spending. 3.0% gives $164.32; 2.0% gives $137.81. Must remain < WACC of 7.72%.	2.5%	ESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. For DG it is not generous: sales compounded ~7% a year FY2016-FY2025 ($22.0B to $42.7B), but that was a store-count build-out now slowing to ~2% unit growth on a 21,000-store base; long-run growth of a mature, consumables-led chain should track nominal consumer spending. 3.0% gives $164.32; 2.0% gives $137.81. Must remain < WACC of 7.72%.
Diluted sharesDollar General Q2 2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99 (accession 0001104659-26-101918, filed 2026-08-27): Q2 2026 (13 weeks to 2026-07-31) weighted-average diluted shares 221,505K; H1 221,532K; FY2025 220,814K. Shares outstanding 220.62M at 2026-08-25. The count has been FLAT for three years: DG bought back nothing in FY2025 or H1 2026 while it repaid debt. It now 'intends to repurchase shares... in the second half' - guidance allows up to $700M (~2.5% of the market cap at today's price) with $1.4B of authorization left. Buybacks at a price below the model's value would add to per-share value; the model does not assume them. SBC was $91.5M in FY2025 (0.2% of sales).	222M	Dollar General Q2 2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99 (accession 0001104659-26-101918, filed 2026-08-27): Q2 2026 (13 weeks to 2026-07-31) weighted-average diluted shares 221,505K; H1 221,532K; FY2025 220,814K. Shares outstanding 220.62M at 2026-08-25. The count has been FLAT for three years: DG bought back nothing in FY2025 or H1 2026 while it repaid debt. It now 'intends to repurchase shares... in the second half' - guidance allows up to $700M (~2.5% of the market cap at today's price) with $1.4B of authorization left. Buybacks at a price below the model's value would add to per-share value; the model does not assume them. SBC was $91.5M in FY2025 (0.2% of sales).
Market priceBackup price feed · as of 2026-10-19 12:47 UTC	$134.36	Backup price feed · as of 2026-10-19 12:47 UTC

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What does Dollar General Corporation do?

What does it do?

Dollar General Corporation, a discount retailer, provides various merchandise products in the southern, southwestern, midwestern, and eastern United States. It offers consumable products, including paper towels, bath tissues, paper dinnerware, trash and storage bags, disinfectants, and laundry products; packaged food, such as cereals, pasta, canned soups, canned meats, fruits and vegetables, condiments, spices, sugar, and flour; and perishables, including milk, eggs, bread, refrigerated and frozen food, beer, wine, and produce; candy, cookies, crackers, salty snacks, and carbonated beverages; over-the-counter medicines and personal care products including soap, body wash, shampoo, cosmetics, dental hygiene and foot care products; pet supplies and pet food; and tobacco products. It operates in the Discount Stores industry (Consumer Defensive sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 194,000 people.

How does it make money?

The business turns $43.6B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $7 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 6.8%), after a 31% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 3.9% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.

Is it financially healthy?

Financially it looks stretched: carries moderate debt (1.7× equity), can just cover its short-term bills (1.2× current ratio), and is currently profitable.

Who at DG filed insider trades?

Recent insider filings for Dollar General Corporation
Date	Insider	Relationship	What happened	Value	Filing
3 Sept 2026	REARDON KATHLEEN A	EVP & Chief People Officer	Open-market sale	$732,554.84	Form 4 for REARDON KATHLEEN A (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
28 May 2026	Hicks Gregory H	Director	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for Hicks Gregory H (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
28 May 2026	Scarlett Kathleen	Director	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for Scarlett Kathleen (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
28 May 2026	Scarlett Kathleen	Director	Disposition to issuer	$35.81	Form 4 for Scarlett Kathleen (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
28 May 2026	SANTANA RALPH E	Director	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for SANTANA RALPH E (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
28 May 2026	SANTANA RALPH E	Director	Disposition to issuer	$35.81	Form 4 for SANTANA RALPH E (opens sec.gov in a new tab)

A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans

Common questions

What is DG's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Dollar General Corporation (DG) between $64.17 and $308.80 per share, versus a market price of $134.36. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is DG overvalued or undervalued?
At $134.36 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call DG overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for DG?
A WACC of 7.7% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Dollar General stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for Dollar General Corporation (DG) is $64.17 – $308.80 against a market price of $134.36. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Dollar General (DG) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for Dollar General Corporation (DG) is $64.17 – $308.80, built on a 7.7% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Dollar General stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of −2.3% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 3.7% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $134.36. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Dollar General (DG) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Dollar General Corporation (DG): REARDON KATHLEEN A, EVP & Chief People Officer, open-market sale on 2026-09-03. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.