DLTR · Intrinsic value
Is Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) at $67.13 – $210.82, too broad a range to say where the delayed market price of $124.18 sits in it, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
What is DLTR worth?
- Fair-value range
- $67.13 – $210.82
- Market price
- $124.18
- Gap to fair value
- —
- Verdict
- Too wide to call
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 6.0% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 5.4% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is DLTR's TickerWorth Score?
Scores higher than most companies we compare it with
Compared with Consumer Defensive companies in US
Its strongest point: recent price trend has been strong. Its weakest: balance sheet looks stretched.
- Value · 57 of 100
Cheaper than 57% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
- Price vs worth · 58 of 100
- Quality · 50 of 100
More profitable than 50% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
- Financial health · 44 of 100
Financially stronger than 44% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
- Growth · 57 of 100
Growing faster than 57% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
- Momentum · 79 of 100
Outperformed 79% of Consumer Defensive companies in US over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
Get the Undervalued Company of the Week.
Why DLTR gets a range, not one number
At a recent price of $124.18, Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $67.13 and $210.82 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts Dollar Tree, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 8.3%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 78% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 6.0% annual revenue growth for DLTR. Our base case instead compounds to about 5.4% a year over the same forecast, so the market's implied growth is broadly in line with our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, DLTR's modeled DCF value ranges from about $75.24 to $193.68 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Dollar Tree, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of DLTR's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind DLTR's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueDollar Tree Q4/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0000935703-26-000024, filed 2026-03-16), 52 weeks ended 2026-01-31 + Dollar Tree FY2025 10-K (accession 0000935703-26-000025, filed 2026-03-16), 52 weeks ended 2026-01-31: CONTINUING OPERATIONS ONLY (Dollar Tree U.S. and Dollar Tree Canada banners; Family Dollar was sold on 2025-07-05 and is reported as discontinued operations for every period). Total revenue $19,411.8M for the 52 weeks ended 2026-01-31 = net sales $19,395.7M + other revenue $16.1M; +10.4% on FY2024's $17,578.5M, on Dollar Tree same-store sales +5.3% (ticket +4.3%, traffic +1.0%) plus 402 new stores and Family Dollar-to-Dollar Tree conversions. Total revenue is used because the company states its operating margin on total revenue. Continuing-operations history on the same basis (10-K): $16,781.1M FY2023 (a 53-week year), $17,578.5M FY2024, $19,411.8M FY2025. CROSS-CHECK: H1 FY2026 (26 weeks to 2026-08-01) total revenue $9,867.0M, +7.1% (Q2 net sales +7.0%, same-store sales +3.7% on ticket +3.3% and traffic +0.4%); trailing twelve months to 2026-08-01 $20,068.7M. Used unchanged as the base; the DCF grows it by forecast.revenue_growth. | $19,411,800,000 |
| Base EBIT marginDollar Tree Q4/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0000935703-26-000024, filed 2026-03-16), 52 weeks ended 2026-01-31 + Dollar Tree FY2025 10-K (accession 0000935703-26-000025, filed 2026-03-16), 52 weeks ended 2026-01-31: GAAP operating income from continuing operations $1,653.1M / total revenue $19,411.8M = 8.52%. Adjusted operating income $1,664.1M (8.57%) adds back $15.5M of strategic-review costs and deducts a $4.5M reversal of software termination costs - immaterial, so GAAP is used. Includes $54.9M of 'transition services agreement income, net' from servicing Family Dollar after the sale (0.3% of revenue) - TRANSITIONAL, see the forecast margin note. Continuing-operations margin history: 10.57% FY2023 (53 weeks, before the multi-price conversions and tariffs), 8.32% FY2024 (8.9% adjusted; software impairments, the Marietta DC tornado, accelerated stock vesting), 8.52% FY2025 (tariff costs and higher markdowns offset by pricing). Operating leases: $1,510.0M of FY2025 lease cost ($1,131.9M fixed, $367.0M variable, $11.1M short-term; 10-K Note 7) sits inside cost of sales and SG&A, so this margin is AFTER rent - consistent with leaving operating-lease liabilities out of net debt (DG house approach). Not used to forecast (Year 1 is derived from guidance) but it is one leg of the cyclical peak test. CROSS-CHECK: H1 FY2026 GAAP operating margin 11.8% includes the $368.7M IEEPA tariff refund in cost of sales; excluding the net refund effect (refund less $22M of reinvestment markdowns, $15M of reinvestment SG&A and a $13M antidumping duty charge) H1 is ~8.56% vs 6.77% adjusted in H1 FY2025. | 8.5% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 6% → 6% → 6% → 5% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateUS 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. Shared by every model in this tracker. | 5.2% |
| BetaYahoo Finance 5Y-monthly beta via yfinance (read 2026-10-06) + own regressions: Published 5Y-monthly beta 0.716, used AS PUBLISHED. My own regressions of yfinance adjusted monthly closes on the S&P 500 agree: 60-month 0.676, 120-month 0.742, 36-month 0.575 - so it is not a data artefact, and unlike DG's 0.226 there is no reason to normalize it. It sits in the middle of the discount/value-retail peers on the same feed (WMT 0.578, OLLI 0.414, BJ 0.166, FIVE 0.943, COST 0.87, TGT 0.981, DG 0.226); note the DG model in this tracker normalized DG UP to 0.58, so the two dollar stores are valued at broadly comparable discount rates (DLTR 8.3%, DG 7.7%). Cost of equity 5.24% + 0.716 x 5% = 8.82%. Each 0.1 of beta is worth roughly $9-11/share here: the peer median 0.58 gives $123.12, the 60-month regression 0.676 gives $112.95, 0.80 gives $101.86. The price is consistent with ~0.674 (WACC ~8.1%) on everything else held. | 0.72 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. For Dollar Tree it is not generous: continuing revenue grew ~7.5% a year FY2023-FY2025 on store growth, pricing (the move beyond $1.25) and conversions of former Family Dollar sites, but in perpetuity a 9,400-store chain should track nominal consumer spending. 3.0% gives $118.37; 2.0% gives $101.38; the price is consistent with ~2.73%. Must remain < WACC of 8.32%. | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesDollar Tree Q2 FY2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0000935703-26-000108, filed 2026-08-27), 13 and 26 weeks ended 2026-08-01: Q2 FY2026 (13 weeks to 2026-08-01) weighted-average diluted shares 190.9M; H1 194.1M; FY2025 206.3M; FY2024 215.9M. The count is falling fast: Dollar Tree bought back $1,548M of stock in FY2025 and $1,208.9M (11.1M shares) in H1 FY2026, including $500M bought in the June 2026 block trade in which Mantle Ridge sold its stake; the board replenished the authorization to $2.5B on 2026-07-02 ($2.5B remaining at 2026-08-01). Shares outstanding were already 187.63M at 2026-08-25, so the weighted count overstates the current count by ~3.3M; using 187.63M would add ~$1.90/share. Further buybacks are NOT assumed. SBC was $58.9M in FY2025 (0.3% of revenue) and $40.7M in H1 FY2026. | 191M |
| Market priceBackup price feed · as of 2026-10-19 13:16 UTC | $124.18 |
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What does Dollar Tree, Inc. do?
What does it do?
Dollar Tree, Inc. operates retail discount stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands in the United States and Canada. It operates in the Discount Stores industry (Consumer Defensive sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 150,000 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $20.1B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $6 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 6.2%), after a 37% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 8.0% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks stretched: carries heavy debt (2.2× equity), can just cover its short-term bills (1.1× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at DLTR filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stahl Stephanie | Director | Open-market sale | $155,791.95 | Form 4 for Stahl Stephanie (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Aflatooni Robert | Chief Information Officer | Open-market sale | $315,025.00 | Form 4 for Aflatooni Robert (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Maheshwari Aditya | Chief Accounting Officer | Shares withheld (tax) | $16,155.67 | Form 4 for Maheshwari Aditya (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Stahl Stephanie | Director | Conversion | — | Form 4 for Stahl Stephanie (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Schumacher Steven | Chief People Officer | Shares withheld (tax) | $34,982.10 | Form 4 for Schumacher Steven (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| GRISE CHERYL W | Director | Grant / award | $149,983.70 | Form 4 for GRISE CHERYL W (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is DLTR's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) between $67.13 and $210.82 per share, versus a market price of $124.18. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is DLTR overvalued or undervalued?
At $124.18 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call DLTR overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for DLTR?
A WACC of 8.3% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Dollar Tree stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) is $67.13 – $210.82 against a market price of $124.18. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Dollar Tree (DLTR) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) is $67.13 – $210.82, built on a 8.3% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Dollar Tree stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 6.0% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 5.4% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $124.18. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Dollar Tree (DLTR) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR): Stahl Stephanie, Director, open-market sale on 2026-09-04. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Other ways into the coverage
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.