What is DUOL's intrinsic value?

TickerWorth's blended fair value for Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) is $87.11 per share, versus a market price of $154.10 (77% above fair value).

Is DUOL overvalued or undervalued?

On our blended fair value DUOL looks overvalued vs fair value at $154.10. This is an educational estimate, not advice.

What discount rate is used for DUOL?

A WACC of 12.1% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.

Is Duolingo stock undervalued?

TickerWorth's fair value for Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) is $87.11 against a market price of $154.10. Our read: 77% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.

Duolingo (DUOL) DCF valuation and fair value

Our fair value for Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) is $87.11, built on a 12.1% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.

Duolingo (DUOL) insider trading

The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL): Chen Stephen C., General Counsel, open-market sale on 2026-11-04. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.

DUOL · Intrinsic value

Is Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) overvalued or undervalued?

Name: Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) DCF intrinsic value
Creator: TickerWorth

Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) trades at the delayed market price of $154.10 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. TickerWorth's fair value is $87.11 a share (77% above fair value), as of Nov 9, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.

Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Nov 9, 2026 · How these pages are made

Open full DUOL analysis

Is DUOL overvalued?

Fair value: $87.11
Market price: $154.10
Downside to fair value: 43.5%
Verdict: 77% above fair value

Price as of 9 Nov 2026, 23:48 UTC · Prices are delayed.

Fair value against the delayed market price: 77% above fair value.

Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast.

What is DUOL's TickerWorth Score?

C50/100

Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses

Compared with Technology companies in US

Its strongest point: strong balance sheet. Its weakest: trades above our estimate of what it's worth.

Value · 42 of 100
Cheaper than 42% of Technology companies in US
Price vs worth · 15 of 100
Quality · 51 of 100
More profitable than 51% of Technology companies in US
Financial health · 91 of 100
Financially stronger than 91% of Technology companies in US
Growth · 46 of 100
Growing faster than 46% of Technology companies in US
Momentum · 65 of 100
Outperformed 65% of Technology companies in US over the past year

Confidence: High confidence · Scored 9 Nov 2026, 23:48 UTC

Get the Undervalued Company of the Week.

Where the numbers come from

Hand-researched model

What the modeller flagged

THE VALUE IS MOSTLY A TERMINAL-VALUE CLAIM: at a 12.09% WACC the terminal value is about 70% of enterprise value, and the sensitivity grid across reasonable discount and terminal-growth rates spans tens of dollars a share. The five explicit years are built from filings; everything after 2030 is a 2.5%-forever Gordon claim on a 15.5% GAAP margin, and readers should weight the two parts accordingly.
USER GROWTH IS ACCELERATING WHILE REVENUE GROWTH DECELERATES, AND THE FORECAST SIDES WITH THE USERS — PARTLY. DAU growth went +21% (Q1) -> +23% (Q2) -> +29% (Q3) with Q4 guided similar, while revenue growth fell to +13.7% in Q3: the new users are disproportionately international and free-tier, and monetization per user is diluting. The model's 16% for 2027 assumes bookings momentum annualizes into revenue; if the new cohort monetizes at structurally lower rates (family-plan mix, emerging-market pricing), revenue growth undershoots the path from Year 2 and the value breaks downward — the explainer's growth lever prices the miss.
THE MARGIN PATH IS A JUDGEMENT ABOUT DISCIPLINE, NOT A FILING. GAAP operating margin has printed 9.1% / 13.2% / 13.1% / 11.4% (FY2023-FY2025, 9M 2026); the path's climb to 15.5% by 2030 assumes SBC glides down as a share of revenue and R&D growth slows below revenue growth. Duolingo is explicitly choosing the opposite trade today — it spent 2026 reinvesting in user growth (R&D +25% in 9M 2026, a bonus plan that pays out only on a 25% user-growth hit) — and if that posture persists, margins land under the path. Each point of terminal-year margin is worth roughly $3 a share.
YEAR-1 FREE CASH FLOW VS THE BASE-YEAR MEMO: the model's 2026 free cash flow lands far BELOW FY2025's company-defined $360.4M memo — the validator will flag the gap, and it is arithmetic, not a modelling liberty: (i) the memo's operating cash flow adds back $137.4M of stock compensation that this model expenses inside EBIT; (ii) FY2025's operating cash flow collected a $123.3M deferred-revenue build at 38.7% growth, while the model's Year-1 float contribution at 17.7% growth is about $28M; (iii) partly offsetting, the model charges a normalized 24% cash tax that Duolingo's deferred-tax shelter ($203.6M of net DTAs) will keep it from actually paying for years.
A SECURITIES CLASS ACTION IS PENDING (10-Q Note 13, subsequent events): a putative shareholder class action filed 2026-10-07 in the Western District of Pennsylvania over the 2025 drawdown period. The company has recorded no accrual and says it will defend vigorously. No amount is estimable from the filings, so the model carries no line for it — a settlement or judgment would come straight out of the cash pile in the bridge, and defense costs will pressure G&A at the margin.
THE HOUSE RISK-FREE RATE IS STALE-HIGH AND APPLIED UNIFORMLY: 5.24% (the 1 October FRED print used by every model in this tracker) against a current print near 4.96%. At 4.96% the WACC falls to ~11.8% and the value rises to $72.06 (+$1.33); refreshing it for Duolingo alone would break comparability with the rest of the tracker, so it is flagged here rather than smuggled in.

DUOL DCF valuation: what the price assumes

At a recent price of $154.10, Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) trades 77% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $87.11 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices DUOL overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -43.5% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.

Read the full reasoning

One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values DUOL at about $70.73 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.

The valuation discounts Duolingo, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 12.1%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 70% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — DUOL would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against about 13.9% a year compounded in our base case. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, DUOL's modeled DCF value ranges from about $62.61 to $84.51 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Duolingo, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of DUOL's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

Every input behind DUOL's DCF

Input	Value	Source
Base-year revenueFY2025 Form 10-K (filed 2026-02-27) — Consolidated Statements of Operations and Note: Revenue from Contracts with Customers: Total revenue $1,037,589K, up 38.7% on FY2024's $748,024K (FY2023: $531,109K). The filed mix: subscription revenue $873,442K (84.2% — Super/Family/Max plans, recognized ratably over the subscription term) and other revenue $164,147K (advertising $79,725K, Duolingo English Test $42,006K, in-app purchases $40,479K, other $1,937K). One operating segment by the company's own accounting. Three processors handled 95.3% of FY2025 revenue: Apple 61.6%, Google 23.4%, Stripe 10.3% — the app-store toll (generally 15-30% of in-app payments, per the 10-K's risk factors) sits inside cost of revenues and is a structural feature of this base year, not an adjustment to it.	$1,037,589,000	FY2025 Form 10-K (filed 2026-02-27) — Consolidated Statements of Operations and Note: Revenue from Contracts with Customers: Total revenue $1,037,589K, up 38.7% on FY2024's $748,024K (FY2023: $531,109K). The filed mix: subscription revenue $873,442K (84.2% — Super/Family/Max plans, recognized ratably over the subscription term) and other revenue $164,147K (advertising $79,725K, Duolingo English Test $42,006K, in-app purchases $40,479K, other $1,937K). One operating segment by the company's own accounting. Three processors handled 95.3% of FY2025 revenue: Apple 61.6%, Google 23.4%, Stripe 10.3% — the app-store toll (generally 15-30% of in-app payments, per the 10-K's risk factors) sits inside cost of revenues and is a structural feature of this base year, not an adjustment to it.
Base EBIT marginFY2025 Form 10-K (filed 2026-02-27) — Consolidated Statements of Operations: Income from operations $135,570K / revenue $1,037,589K = 13.07%. The build: gross profit $749,457K (72.2% — cost of revenues is mostly app-store fees, hosting/AI inference and content), less R&D $306,323K (29.5% of revenue), sales & marketing $125,677K (12.1%) and G&A $181,887K (17.5%). This GAAP margin carries the full stock-compensation load of $137,437K (13.2% of revenue) inside it — nothing is added back anywhere in this model. The filed path: 9.1% (FY2023), 13.2% (FY2024), 13.1% (FY2025); the nine months to 2026-09-30 printed 11.4% ($102,668K on $899,428K, Q3 2026 10-Q), including an $11.4M one-quarter bonus accrual that pays out only if Q4 user growth reaches 25%.	13.1%	FY2025 Form 10-K (filed 2026-02-27) — Consolidated Statements of Operations: Income from operations $135,570K / revenue $1,037,589K = 13.07%. The build: gross profit $749,457K (72.2% — cost of revenues is mostly app-store fees, hosting/AI inference and content), less R&D $306,323K (29.5% of revenue), sales & marketing $125,677K (12.1%) and G&A $181,887K (17.5%). This GAAP margin carries the full stock-compensation load of $137,437K (13.2% of revenue) inside it — nothing is added back anywhere in this model. The filed path: 9.1% (FY2023), 13.2% (FY2024), 13.1% (FY2025); the nine months to 2026-09-30 printed 11.4% ($102,668K on $899,428K, Q3 2026 10-Q), including an $11.4M one-quarter bonus accrual that pays out only if Q4 user growth reaches 25%.
Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast	18% → 16% → 14% → 12% → 10%	ESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rateFRED DGS10 — 10-year US Treasury constant maturity yield: Shared house input: the same 5.24% used by every researched model in this tracker, held so values stay comparable across companies. The current FRED print is lower (~4.96% in late October); refreshing it for Duolingo alone would break comparability — it is a tracker-wide update, flagged here rather than smuggled into one company's model.	5.2%	FRED DGS10 — 10-year US Treasury constant maturity yield: Shared house input: the same 5.24% used by every researched model in this tracker, held so values stay comparable across companies. The current FRED print is lower (~4.96% in late October); refreshing it for Duolingo alone would break comparability — it is a tracker-wide update, flagged here rather than smuggled into one company's model.
BetaESTIMATEAssumption — Own regressions of DUOL on the S&P 500 from Yahoo daily/weekly/monthly price history (pulled 2026-11-04): Measured here against the S&P 500 from Yahoo price history: 1.03 (5Y monthly, n=60 — the window reaches back to the 2021 IPO and the 2022 drawdown, when DUOL fell with, not against, a falling market), 1.38 (3Y monthly), 1.53 (2Y weekly), 1.37 (1Y weekly), 1.33 (2Y daily). The value used, 1.37, is the median of the five windows, on the house method (the APP and TSLA files use the same five-window median). No shrink is applied: the four shorter windows cluster at 1.33-1.53 and describe the same company — a consumer-subscription stock that lost roughly three-quarters of its value from its 2025 high to the $128.00 close on 2026-11-03, then rose ~32% the next day. Each 0.1 of beta here is worth about $2.30 a share (beta 1.27 prints $73.17, beta 1.47 prints $68.53); at a beta of 1.0 the value would be $81.35.	1.37	ESTIMATEAssumption — Own regressions of DUOL on the S&P 500 from Yahoo daily/weekly/monthly price history (pulled 2026-11-04): Measured here against the S&P 500 from Yahoo price history: 1.03 (5Y monthly, n=60 — the window reaches back to the 2021 IPO and the 2022 drawdown, when DUOL fell with, not against, a falling market), 1.38 (3Y monthly), 1.53 (2Y weekly), 1.37 (1Y weekly), 1.33 (2Y daily). The value used, 1.37, is the median of the five windows, on the house method (the APP and TSLA files use the same five-window median). No shrink is applied: the four shorter windows cluster at 1.33-1.53 and describe the same company — a consumer-subscription stock that lost roughly three-quarters of its value from its 2025 high to the $128.00 close on 2026-11-03, then rose ~32% the next day. Each 0.1 of beta here is worth about $2.30 a share (beta 1.27 prints $73.17, beta 1.47 prints $68.53); at a beta of 1.0 the value would be $81.35.
Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — House default — long-run nominal growth ceiling applied across the tracker: Shared house input (2.5%), identical in every researched model in this tracker.	2.5%	ESTIMATEAssumption — House default — long-run nominal growth ceiling applied across the tracker: Shared house input (2.5%), identical in every researched model in this tracker.
Diluted sharesQ3 2026 Form 10-Q (filed 2026-11-04) — Note: Net Income Per Share (weighted-average shares): Weighted-average DILUTED shares for Q3 2026: 49,930K (nine months: 49,840K) — the house convention (the META, NVDA and APP models also divide by the weighted diluted count). The build: basic weighted shares 46,879K plus dilutive RSUs 2,638K plus dilutive options 413K. For reference, the census at 2026-09-30 was 47,107K shares outstanding (Class A 40,708K + Class B 6,399K; the two classes are economically identical — Class B carries 20 votes per share, converts 1:1 into Class A, and there is no preferred or tracking stock to bridge). Dividing by the census instead would print about 6% higher. The count is roughly flat year over year despite $76,455K of first-ever buybacks in 9M 2026, because equity grants dilute 3.5-4.0% a year before repurchases (shareholder letter) — this static denominator takes no credit for future buybacks.	50M	Q3 2026 Form 10-Q (filed 2026-11-04) — Note: Net Income Per Share (weighted-average shares): Weighted-average DILUTED shares for Q3 2026: 49,930K (nine months: 49,840K) — the house convention (the META, NVDA and APP models also divide by the weighted diluted count). The build: basic weighted shares 46,879K plus dilutive RSUs 2,638K plus dilutive options 413K. For reference, the census at 2026-09-30 was 47,107K shares outstanding (Class A 40,708K + Class B 6,399K; the two classes are economically identical — Class B carries 20 votes per share, converts 1:1 into Class A, and there is no preferred or tracking stock to bridge). Dividing by the census instead would print about 6% higher. The count is roughly flat year over year despite $76,455K of first-ever buybacks in 9M 2026, because equity grants dilute 3.5-4.0% a year before repurchases (shareholder letter) — this static denominator takes no credit for future buybacks.
Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-11-09 23:48 UTC	$154.10	Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-09 23:48 UTC

Test the discount rate

Moves the DCF value, one of the lenses behind the fair value above. It does not move the fair value itself.

Discount rate (WACC): 12.1%; ESTIMATEour base case
DCF value: $70.73
Market price: $154.10; Delayed, as stamped above

7.1%17.1%

What does Duolingo, Inc. do?

What does it do?

Duolingo, Inc. operates as a mobile learning platform in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates in the Software - Application industry (Technology sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 900 people.

How does it make money?

The business turns $1.0B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $9 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 8.5%), after a 73% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 12.3% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.

Is it financially healthy?

Financially it looks solid: carries modest debt (0.1× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (2.8× current ratio), and is currently profitable.

Who at DUOL filed insider trades?

Recent insider filings for Duolingo, Inc.
Date	Insider	Relationship	What happened	Value	Filing
4 Nov 2026	Chen Stephen C.	General Counsel	Open-market sale	$647,500.00	Form 4 for Chen Stephen C. (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
2 Nov 2026	GORDON WILLIAM B	Director	Open-market sale	$39,640.92	Form 4 for GORDON WILLIAM B (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
2 Nov 2026	GORDON WILLIAM B	Director	Open-market sale	$39,990.00	Form 4 for GORDON WILLIAM B (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
2 Nov 2026	GORDON WILLIAM B	Director	Open-market sale	$40,352.01	Form 4 for GORDON WILLIAM B (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
2 Nov 2026	GORDON WILLIAM B	Director	Open-market sale	$534,140.28	Form 4 for GORDON WILLIAM B (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
2 Nov 2026	GORDON WILLIAM B	Director	Open-market sale	$239,669.20	Form 4 for GORDON WILLIAM B (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
2 Nov 2026	GORDON WILLIAM B	Director	Open-market sale	$182,451.10	Form 4 for GORDON WILLIAM B (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
2 Nov 2026	GORDON WILLIAM B	Director	Open-market sale	$190,162.15	Form 4 for GORDON WILLIAM B (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
2 Nov 2026	GORDON WILLIAM B	Director	Open-market sale	$97,439.44	Form 4 for GORDON WILLIAM B (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
10 Oct 2026	Shelton James H	Director	Grant / award	$14,992.00	Form 4 for Shelton James H (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
10 Oct 2026	Schlosser Mario	Director	Grant / award	$17,390.72	Form 4 for Schlosser Mario (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
10 Oct 2026	Lilly III John Osborne	Director	Grant / award	$14,692.16	Form 4 for Lilly III John Osborne (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
10 Oct 2026	Bohutinsky Amy	Director	Grant / award	$16,191.36	Form 4 for Bohutinsky Amy (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
7 Oct 2026	von Ahn Luis	Director, President & CEO, Co-Founder, 10% owner	Conversion	$4,190,551.68	Form 4 for von Ahn Luis (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
7 Oct 2026	von Ahn Luis	Director, President & CEO, Co-Founder, 10% owner	Open-market sale	$3,016,403.80	Form 4 for von Ahn Luis (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
7 Oct 2026	von Ahn Luis	Director, President & CEO, Co-Founder, 10% owner	Open-market sale	$8,339,285.87	Form 4 for von Ahn Luis (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
7 Oct 2026	von Ahn Luis	Director, President & CEO, Co-Founder, 10% owner	Open-market sale	$4,554,532.93	Form 4 for von Ahn Luis (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
7 Oct 2026	von Ahn Luis	Director, President & CEO, Co-Founder, 10% owner	Open-market sale	$783,777.27	Form 4 for von Ahn Luis (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
24 Sept 2026	von Ahn Luis	Director, President & CEO, Co-Founder, 10% owner	Conversion	$1,777,650.56	Form 4 for von Ahn Luis (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
24 Sept 2026	von Ahn Luis	Director, President & CEO, Co-Founder, 10% owner	Open-market sale	$5,831,144.98	Form 4 for von Ahn Luis (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
24 Sept 2026	von Ahn Luis	Director, President & CEO, Co-Founder, 10% owner	Open-market sale	$1,063,588.13	Form 4 for von Ahn Luis (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
24 Sept 2026	von Ahn Luis	Director, President & CEO, Co-Founder, 10% owner	Open-market sale	$137,061.00	Form 4 for von Ahn Luis (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
22 Sept 2026	von Ahn Luis	Director, President & CEO, Co-Founder, 10% owner	Conversion	$137,621.12	Form 4 for von Ahn Luis (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
22 Sept 2026	von Ahn Luis	Director, President & CEO, Co-Founder, 10% owner	Open-market sale	$30,000.00	Form 4 for von Ahn Luis (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
22 Sept 2026	von Ahn Luis	Director, President & CEO, Co-Founder, 10% owner	Open-market sale	$518,996.28	Form 4 for von Ahn Luis (opens sec.gov in a new tab)

A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4).

Common questions

What is DUOL's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) is $87.11 per share, versus a market price of $154.10 (77% above fair value).
Is DUOL overvalued or undervalued?
On our blended fair value DUOL looks overvalued vs fair value at $154.10. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for DUOL?
A WACC of 12.1% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Duolingo stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) is $87.11 against a market price of $154.10. Our read: 77% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Duolingo (DUOL) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) is $87.11, built on a 12.1% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Duolingo stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $154.10. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Duolingo (DUOL) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL): Chen Stephen C., General Counsel, open-market sale on 2026-11-04. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.