What is EXPE's intrinsic value?

TickerWorth's blended fair value for Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) is $486.22 per share, versus a market price of $288.95 (41% below fair value).

Is EXPE overvalued or undervalued?

On our blended fair value EXPE looks undervalued vs fair value at $288.95. This is an educational estimate, not advice.

What discount rate is used for EXPE?

A WACC of 11.0% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.

Is Expedia Group stock undervalued?

TickerWorth's fair value for Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) is $486.22 against a market price of $288.95. Our read: 41% below fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.

Expedia Group (EXPE) DCF valuation and fair value

Our fair value for Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) is $486.22, built on a 11.0% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.

What growth is priced into Expedia Group stock?

Today's price implies revenue growth of 4.2% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 6.9% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $288.95. A model estimate, not investment advice.

Expedia Group (EXPE) insider trading

The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE): Dzielak Robert J, Chief Legal Officer & Sec'y, option exercise on 2026-10-15. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.

EXPE · Intrinsic value

Is Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) overvalued or undervalued?

Name: Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) DCF intrinsic value
Creator: TickerWorth

Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) trades at the delayed market price of $288.95 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of 4.2% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is $486.22 a share (41% below fair value), as of Oct 19, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.

Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made

Open full EXPE analysis

Is EXPE undervalued?

Fair value: $486.22
Market price: $288.95
Upside to fair value: +68.3%
Verdict: 41% below fair value

Price as of 19 Oct 2026, 13:15 UTC · Prices are delayed.

Fair value against the delayed market price: 41% below fair value.

Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 4.2% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 6.9% a year on average over the same horizon.

What is EXPE's TickerWorth Score?

A72/100

Scores higher than almost every company we compare it with

Compared with Consumer Cyclical companies in US

Its strongest point: a profitable, high-quality business. Its weakest: looks expensive on the numbers.

Value · 48 of 100
Cheaper than 48% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Price vs worth · 100 of 100
Quality · 88 of 100
More profitable than 88% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Financial health · 52 of 100
Financially stronger than 52% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Growth · 80 of 100
Growing faster than 80% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Momentum · 73 of 100
Outperformed 73% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US over the past year

Confidence: High confidence · Scored 19 Oct 2026, 13:15 UTC

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Where the numbers come from

Hand-researched model

What the modeller flagged

YEAR-1 FCF (~$2.82B) IS ~9% BELOW EXPEDIA'S FY2025 REPORTED FCF ($3,110M) AND ~37% BELOW THE TTM $4,459M. The FY2025 gap is small because two large items roughly cancel: this model expenses SBC (~$0.43B) and taxes EBIT at 20% (~$0.55B vs $0.22B paid in FY2025), but credits a ~$0.56B working-capital release in 2026. The TTM figure is not a run-rate: it straddles the H1 2026 booking float ($3,667M of H1 working-capital inflow) against an H2 2025 that included the outflow season. Reported FCF far above EBIT is the merchant float, and is explained, not ignored — see special_cases.
WHAT THE AUTOMATIC MODEL MOST LIKELY GOT WRONG (it showed roughly +112%). The data feed it reads for EXPE today returns: an operating margin of 19.0% (the seasonal Q2 quarter, not the 16.0% TTM or 12.7% FY2025), revenue growth of 14% (Q2's year-on-year rate, against a full-year guide of 9-10% that implies ~5% in H2), cash of $7.1B (the June-30 seasonal peak, inflated by the booking float), and 114.5M shares (the common class only — it misses 5.5M Class B shares and 2.3M of award dilution, ~7% of the count). Each of those pushes value up; together they explain most of the gap.
IRS TRANSFER-PRICING DISPUTE, NOT DEDUCTED. After 30 June the IRS replaced its earlier proposals with adjustments implying federal tax of ~$988M-$1,224M for 2011-2018, plus interest (10-Q Note 8). Expedia disputes them and has not reserved that amount. Paid in full it would be ~$8-10/share. Not deducted because the outcome is uncertain and not accrued; flagged.
AI-AGENT DISINTERMEDIATION IS NOT MODELED AS A SCENARIO. Expedia is a pure aggregator: its hotel and air inventory can be booked elsewhere, which is why it fell hardest (-7.7%) when Meta's Muse agent was shown completing bookings on 23 Sep, a day after Expedia announced it was joining Muse as a connector. If agents own the traveler, Expedia's B2C take rate and its marketing efficiency are what is at risk; its B2B business (selling inventory to other front-ends, possibly including agents) is the hedge. The base case haircuts B2C growth via the fade, not take rate.
TERMINAL VALUE IS ~69% OF ENTERPRISE VALUE — under the 75% line; the implied exit multiple is ~8.6x 2030 GAAP EBITDA.
OCCUPANCY AND NON-INCOME TAX CONTINGENCIES. Expedia has two active hotel-occupancy-tax lawsuits and ongoing Italian withholding-tax discussions for years after 2023 ($9M reserve left). It states a reasonably possible loss above reserves 'cannot be made'. Not deducted.
Y1 MARGIN IS ARITHMETIC ON GUIDANCE. The 17.0% operating margin is derived from the +1.5-1.75pt Adjusted EBITDA margin guide by subtracting estimated SBC, D&A and restructuring. FX hedge results and legal-reserve swings can move GAAP operating income by ~$50-100M a year without changing the adjusted guide.

EXPE DCF valuation: where the gap comes from

At a recent price of $288.95, Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) trades 41% below TickerWorth's blended fair value of $486.22 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices EXPE undervalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits above the market, an implied +68.3% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.

Read the full reasoning

One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values EXPE at about $301.05 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.

The valuation discounts Expedia Group, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 11.0%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 69% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 4.2% annual revenue growth for EXPE. Our base case instead compounds to about 6.9% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in slower growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, EXPE's modeled DCF value ranges from about $237.52 to $416.46 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Expedia Group, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of EXPE's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

Every input behind EXPE's DCF

Input	Value	Source
Base-year revenueExpedia Group FY2025 10-K (accession 0001324424-26-000008, filed 2026-02-13): FY2025 revenue $14,733M, +7.6% on FY2024's $13,691M (FY2023 $12,839M). Quarterly: Q1 $2,988M, Q2 $3,786M, Q3 $4,412M, Q4 $3,547M — lodging revenue is recognized at the STAY, so Q3 is the peak. Revenue is Expedia's commissions and merchant margin; the $119.6B of gross bookings that flow through the platform are NOT revenue and are not modeled (revenue margin ~12.3% of gross bookings). Segments FY2025: B2C $9,474M, B2B $4,842M, trivago third-party $417M. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue $7,741M, +14.3% on H1 2025's $6,774M (Q1 +14.7%, Q2 +14.0%; B2B +23% in Q2, B2C +8%). TTM to 2026-06-30 is $15,700M. UNCHANGED as the base — the new year belongs in the forecast.	$14,733,000,000	Expedia Group FY2025 10-K (accession 0001324424-26-000008, filed 2026-02-13): FY2025 revenue $14,733M, +7.6% on FY2024's $13,691M (FY2023 $12,839M). Quarterly: Q1 $2,988M, Q2 $3,786M, Q3 $4,412M, Q4 $3,547M — lodging revenue is recognized at the STAY, so Q3 is the peak. Revenue is Expedia's commissions and merchant margin; the $119.6B of gross bookings that flow through the platform are NOT revenue and are not modeled (revenue margin ~12.3% of gross bookings). Segments FY2025: B2C $9,474M, B2B $4,842M, trivago third-party $417M. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue $7,741M, +14.3% on H1 2025's $6,774M (Q1 +14.7%, Q2 +14.0%; B2B +23% in Q2, B2C +8%). TTM to 2026-06-30 is $15,700M. UNCHANGED as the base — the new year belongs in the forecast.
Base EBIT marginExpedia Group FY2025 10-K (accession 0001324424-26-000008, filed 2026-02-13): GAAP operating income $1,871M / revenue $14,733M = 12.70% (FY2024 $1,319M = 9.6%; FY2023 $1,033M = 8.0%). It is AFTER $398M of stock-based compensation (2.7% of revenue), $887M of D&A (6.0%), $185M of 'legal reserves, occupancy tax and other' (of which $178M was the Italian short-term-rental withholding-tax matter, settled for $156M in Dec 2025) and $107M of restructuring. Company 'Adjusted EBITDA' was $3,501M (23.8%), which adds all of those back. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 GAAP operating income $1,051M / $7,741M = 13.6% against 6.1% in H1 2025 — the first half is seasonally thin because marketing is spent at booking and revenue lands at the stay. TTM to 2026-06-30: $2,507M / $15,700M = 16.0%. H1 2026 is flattered by a $58M legal-reserve RELEASE; ex that, 12.8%.	12.7%	Expedia Group FY2025 10-K (accession 0001324424-26-000008, filed 2026-02-13): GAAP operating income $1,871M / revenue $14,733M = 12.70% (FY2024 $1,319M = 9.6%; FY2023 $1,033M = 8.0%). It is AFTER $398M of stock-based compensation (2.7% of revenue), $887M of D&A (6.0%), $185M of 'legal reserves, occupancy tax and other' (of which $178M was the Italian short-term-rental withholding-tax matter, settled for $156M in Dec 2025) and $107M of restructuring. Company 'Adjusted EBITDA' was $3,501M (23.8%), which adds all of those back. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 GAAP operating income $1,051M / $7,741M = 13.6% against 6.1% in H1 2025 — the first half is seasonally thin because marketing is spent at booking and revenue lands at the stay. TTM to 2026-06-30: $2,507M / $15,700M = 16.0%. H1 2026 is flattered by a $58M legal-reserve RELEASE; ex that, 12.8%.
Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast	10% → 7% → 6% → 6% → 6%	ESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rateUS 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model in this tracker.	5.2%	US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model in this tracker.
BetaYahoo Finance / yfinance published beta (5Y monthly): Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.362, used UNCHANGED. Travel is genuinely more sensitive to the economy than the average company, and EXPE has shown it this quarter: +7% on 27 Jul, -8% on 8 Sep, -7.7% on 23 Sep. The 60-month window now starts in late 2021 and excludes the 2020 pandemic collapse, so it is not inflated by that. For comparison yfinance shows Booking 1.13 and Airbnb 1.24. Each 0.1 of beta is worth ~$16/share here; using Booking's 1.13 would add ~$41.	1.36	Yahoo Finance / yfinance published beta (5Y monthly): Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.362, used UNCHANGED. Travel is genuinely more sensitive to the economy than the average company, and EXPE has shown it this quarter: +7% on 27 Jul, -8% on 8 Sep, -7.7% on 23 Sep. The 60-month window now starts in late 2021 and excludes the 2020 pandemic collapse, so it is not inflated by that. For comparison yfinance shows Booking 1.13 and Airbnb 1.24. Each 0.1 of beta is worth ~$16/share here; using Booking's 1.13 would add ~$41.
Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. The step from 5.5% in 2030 is moderate for a mature online travel agency; global travel spending has historically grown somewhat faster than GDP, so this leans conservative. A 3.0% terminal rate adds ~$14/share. Must remain < WACC of ~11.0%.	2.5%	ESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. The step from 5.5% in 2030 is moderate for a mature online travel agency; global travel spending has historically grown somewhat faster than GDP, so this leans conservative. A 3.0% terminal rate adds ~$14/share. Must remain < WACC of ~11.0%.
Diluted sharesExpedia Group Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0001324424-26-000053, filed 2026-08-06): Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 122,552K (H1 2026: 123,763K; FY2025: 131,943K; FY2024: 137,919K). Includes BOTH classes — 114.5M common and 5.5M Class B (10 votes each, held by Barry Diller-controlled entities) — plus 2.3M of stock awards. Falling fast: Expedia bought back $1.9B of stock in FY2025 and $1.06B in H1 2026, and the convertible notes that added 3.9M shares to the FY2025 count were settled in cash in February 2026. Shares bought back after June (none disclosed yet) would lift the per-share value slightly.	123M	Expedia Group Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0001324424-26-000053, filed 2026-08-06): Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 122,552K (H1 2026: 123,763K; FY2025: 131,943K; FY2024: 137,919K). Includes BOTH classes — 114.5M common and 5.5M Class B (10 votes each, held by Barry Diller-controlled entities) — plus 2.3M of stock awards. Falling fast: Expedia bought back $1.9B of stock in FY2025 and $1.06B in H1 2026, and the convertible notes that added 3.9M shares to the FY2025 count were settled in cash in February 2026. Shares bought back after June (none disclosed yet) would lift the per-share value slightly.
Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:15 UTC	$288.95	Delayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:15 UTC

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What does Expedia Group, Inc. do?

What does it do?

Expedia Group, Inc. operates as an online travel company in the United States and internationally. It operates in the Travel Services industry (Consumer Cyclical sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 16,000 people.

How does it make money?

The business turns $15.7B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $19 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 19.0%), after a 90% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 13.0% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.

Is it financially healthy?

Financially it looks stretched: carries heavy debt (2.3× equity), may struggle to cover its short-term bills (0.8× current ratio), and is currently profitable.

Who at EXPE filed insider trades?

Recent insider filings for Expedia Group, Inc.
Date	Insider	Relationship	What happened	Value	Filing
15 Oct 2026	Dzielak Robert J	Chief Legal Officer & Sec'y	Option exercise	—	Form 4 for Dzielak Robert J (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
15 Oct 2026	Dzielak Robert J	Chief Legal Officer & Sec'y	Shares withheld (tax)	$252,714.80	Form 4 for Dzielak Robert J (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
24 Aug 2026	Dzielak Robert J	Chief Legal Officer & Sec'y	Open-market sale	$336,340.00	Form 4 for Dzielak Robert J (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
18 Aug 2026	Soliday Lance A	SVP & Chief Accounting Officer	Open-market sale	$909,456.50	Form 4 for Soliday Lance A (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
17 Aug 2026	Dzielak Robert J	Chief Legal Officer & Sec'y	Open-market sale	$661,000.00	Form 4 for Dzielak Robert J (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
15 Aug 2026	Gorin Ariane	Director, Chief Executive Officer	Option exercise	—	Form 4 for Gorin Ariane (opens sec.gov in a new tab)

A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans

Common questions

What is EXPE's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) is $486.22 per share, versus a market price of $288.95 (41% below fair value).
Is EXPE overvalued or undervalued?
On our blended fair value EXPE looks undervalued vs fair value at $288.95. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for EXPE?
A WACC of 11.0% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Expedia Group stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) is $486.22 against a market price of $288.95. Our read: 41% below fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Expedia Group (EXPE) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) is $486.22, built on a 11.0% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Expedia Group stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 4.2% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 6.9% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $288.95. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Expedia Group (EXPE) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE): Dzielak Robert J, Chief Legal Officer & Sec'y, option exercise on 2026-10-15. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.