HLT · Intrinsic value
Is Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth publishes a fair-value range of $79.75 – $273.03 for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT), against the delayed market price of $345.12: priced above our range. It is a range, not a single number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate; every input is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
What is HLT worth?
- Fair-value range
- $79.75 – $273.03
- Market price
- $345.12
- Gap to fair value
- —
- Verdict
- Priced above our range
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast.
What is HLT's TickerWorth Score?
Expensive vs our estimate — the business scores well
Compared with Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Its strongest point: a profitable, high-quality business. Its weakest: looks expensive on the numbers.
- Value · 11 of 100
Cheaper than 11% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Price vs worth · 8 of 100
- Quality · 98 of 100
More profitable than 98% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Financial health · 17 of 100
Financially stronger than 17% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Growth · 51 of 100
Growing faster than 51% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
- Momentum · 94 of 100
Outperformed 94% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
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Why HLT gets a range, not one number
At a recent price of $345.12, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) sits above every lens we ran: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $79.75 and $273.03 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.6%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 71% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — HLT would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against about 3.7% a year compounded in our base case. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, HLT's modeled DCF value ranges from about $49.61 to $142.09 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of HLT's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind HLT's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueHilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001585689-26-000007): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 full year. | $12,039,000,000 |
| Base EBIT marginHilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001585689-26-000007): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 2,693,000,000 / revenue 12,039,000,000 = 22.37%, FY2025. | 22.4% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 3% → 4% → 4% → 4% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.1% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 1.10 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesHilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001585689-26-000007): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 238,000,000 shares, FY2025. | 238M |
| Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 17:05 UTC | $345.12 |
Change HLT's assumptions
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What does Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. do?
What does it do?
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., a hospitality company, engages in managing, franchising, and leasing hotels and resorts. It operates in two segments, Management and Franchise, and Ownership. It operates in the Lodging industry (Consumer Cyclical sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 182,000 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $5.1B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $63 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 63.0%), after a 79% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 31.0% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks stretched: may struggle to cover its short-term bills (0.6× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
HLT insider trading
We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.. Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.
Common questions
What is HLT's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) between $79.75 and $273.03 per share, versus a market price of $345.12. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is HLT overvalued or undervalued?
At $345.12 the price sits above every lens we ran. We don't call HLT overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for HLT?
A WACC of 9.6% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Hilton Worldwide stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) is $79.75 – $273.03 against a market price of $345.12. Priced above our range. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Hilton Worldwide (HLT) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) is $79.75 – $273.03, built on a 9.6% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Hilton Worldwide stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $345.12. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Hilton Worldwide (HLT) insider trading
We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT). Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.
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Other ways into the coverage
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.