What is ABNB's intrinsic value?

TickerWorth's blended fair value for Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) is $92.56 per share, versus a market price of $173.70 (88% above fair value).

Is ABNB overvalued or undervalued?

On our blended fair value ABNB looks overvalued vs fair value at $173.70. This is an educational estimate, not advice.

What discount rate is used for ABNB?

A WACC of 10.9% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.

Is Airbnb stock undervalued?

TickerWorth's fair value for Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) is $92.56 against a market price of $173.70. Our read: 88% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.

Airbnb (ABNB) DCF valuation and fair value

Our fair value for Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) is $92.56, built on a 10.9% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.

Airbnb (ABNB) insider trading

The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB): Blecharczyk Nathan, Director, Chief Strategy Officer, 10% owner, conversion on 2026-10-12. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.

ABNB · Intrinsic value

Is Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) overvalued or undervalued?

Name: Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) DCF intrinsic value
Creator: TickerWorth

Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) trades at the delayed market price of $173.70 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. TickerWorth's fair value is $92.56 a share (88% above fair value), as of Oct 19, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.

Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made

Open full ABNB analysis

Is ABNB overvalued?

Fair value: $92.56
Market price: $173.70
Downside to fair value: 46.7%
Verdict: 88% above fair value

Price as of 19 Oct 2026, 13:16 UTC · Prices are delayed.

Fair value against the delayed market price: 88% above fair value.

Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast.

What is ABNB's TickerWorth Score?

C56/100

Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses

Compared with Consumer Cyclical companies in US

Its strongest point: a profitable, high-quality business. Its weakest: looks expensive on the numbers.

Value · 16 of 100
Cheaper than 16% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Price vs worth · 13 of 100
Quality · 88 of 100
More profitable than 88% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Financial health · 82 of 100
Financially stronger than 82% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Growth · 71 of 100
Growing faster than 71% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Momentum · 92 of 100
Outperformed 92% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US over the past year

Confidence: High confidence · Scored 19 Oct 2026, 13:16 UTC

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Where the numbers come from

Hand-researched model

What the modeller flagged

YEAR-1 FCF IS ~45% BELOW AIRBNB'S LAST REPORTED FCF ($2.55B modeled for FY2026 vs $4,613M reported for FY2025) — well past the 20% threshold, so it is stated. The gap is a definitional choice, not a forecast error. Applying this model's treatment to FY2025 itself gives ~$2.1B ($2,544M EBIT x 81% + $91M D&A - $33M capex). The ~$2.5B difference from reported FCF decomposes as: SBC added back by Airbnb ~$1.6B; interest income on corporate cash and customer funds ~$0.7B; cash taxes ~$0.25B below the normalized 19% on EBIT; other non-cash items ~$0.3B; less a ~$0.1B working-capital use.
TERMINAL VALUE IS ~71% OF ENTERPRISE VALUE — under the 75% line, but most of the answer is still the steady state after 2030.
THE STEP FROM 8% GROWTH IN 2030 TO 2.5% FOREVER IS ABRUPT. The house terminal rate is a convention for comparability; Airbnb would plausibly still be growing faster than GDP after 2030. This understates value — a 3.0% terminal rate adds ~$3.35/share — and is the main place this model is conservative by construction rather than by evidence.
AI-AGENT DISINTERMEDIATION IS NOT MODELED AS A SCENARIO. On 23 Sep 2026 travel platforms sold off (Airbnb -7.6% to $149.58) after reports that Meta's Muse agent can complete bookings directly. Airbnb's supply is mostly unique homes that cannot be booked elsewhere, which is a defence an aggregator of hotel rooms does not have, but if agents capture the guest relationship the 15.5% fee is what is at risk. The base case does not haircut take rate; Airbnb guided Q3 take rate 'relatively in-line year-over-year'.
LODGING AND NON-INCOME TAX CONTINGENCIES. At 2026-06-30 Airbnb had accrued $127M for lodging taxes and $219M for other non-income taxes, and discloses further reasonably-possible losses of ~$0.3B beyond those accruals, plus open disputes it cannot size. Accruals sit in working capital; the unaccrued exposure (~$0.5/share at the disclosed range) is not deducted.
REGULATION OF SHORT-TERM RENTALS (city caps, registration rules) is a standing supply risk that this model carries only implicitly through the growth fade. The September 2026 $250M Housing Accelerator commitment (below-market financing for stalled housing projects) is a policy response to that pressure; at ~$0.4/share it is not deducted.
Y1 IS PART GUIDANCE, PART ARITHMETIC. Revenue growth rests on guided Q3 and 'at least mid teens' for the year; the 21.8% operating margin is derived from the 'at least 35.5%' Adjusted EBITDA Margin guide by subtracting estimated SBC, D&A and tax reserves. If SBC grows faster than ~14% in H2, the GAAP margin comes in lower than modeled even if the adjusted guide is met.

ABNB DCF valuation: what the price assumes

At a recent price of $173.70, Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) trades 88% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $92.56 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices ABNB overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -46.7% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.

Read the full reasoning

One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values ABNB at about $84.65 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.

The valuation discounts Airbnb, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.9%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 71% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — ABNB would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against about 10.7% a year compounded in our base case. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, ABNB's modeled DCF value ranges from about $69.89 to $111.79 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Airbnb, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of ABNB's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

Every input behind ABNB's DCF

Input	Value	Source
Base-year revenueAirbnb FY2025 10-K (accession 0001559720-26-000004, filed 2026-02-12): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 = $12,241M, +10.3% on FY2024's $11,102M. Quarterly: Q1 $2,272M, Q2 $3,096M, Q3 $4,095M, Q4 $2,778M — Q3 is the summer-stay quarter and carries a third of the year. Revenue is Airbnb's service fees; the $81.8B of Gross Booking Value that flows through the platform is NOT revenue and is not modeled. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue was $6,286M, +17.1% on H1 2025's $5,368M (Q1 +18%, Q2 +17%; ex-FX +15% and +13%). TTM to 2026-06-30 is $13,159M. UNCHANGED as the base — the new year belongs in the forecast.	$12,241,000,000	Airbnb FY2025 10-K (accession 0001559720-26-000004, filed 2026-02-12): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 = $12,241M, +10.3% on FY2024's $11,102M. Quarterly: Q1 $2,272M, Q2 $3,096M, Q3 $4,095M, Q4 $2,778M — Q3 is the summer-stay quarter and carries a third of the year. Revenue is Airbnb's service fees; the $81.8B of Gross Booking Value that flows through the platform is NOT revenue and is not modeled. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue was $6,286M, +17.1% on H1 2025's $5,368M (Q1 +18%, Q2 +17%; ex-FX +15% and +13%). TTM to 2026-06-30 is $13,159M. UNCHANGED as the base — the new year belongs in the forecast.
Base EBIT marginAirbnb FY2025 10-K (accession 0001559720-26-000004, filed 2026-02-12): GAAP income from operations $2,544M / revenue $12,241M = 20.78% (FY2024: $2,553M / $11,102M = 23.0%). This is AFTER $1,592M of stock-based compensation (13.0% of revenue) — the line Airbnb's headline 'Adjusted EBITDA Margin' of 35.1% adds back. It is also after ~$74M of lodging/withholding-tax reserves Airbnb classes as non-recurring, and it EXCLUDES the $705M of interest income, part of which is earned on customer funds (see special_cases). Margin fell 2.2pp in FY2025 because Airbnb spent into new businesses (Services and Experiences, launched May 2025) and marketing while revenue grew 10%. CROSS-CHECK, H1 2026: operating income $844M / $6,286M = 13.4% against 12.1% in H1 2025 — +1.3pp YoY. The first half is always thin; H2 2025 ran 27.6% ($1,894M on $6,873M).	20.8%	Airbnb FY2025 10-K (accession 0001559720-26-000004, filed 2026-02-12): GAAP income from operations $2,544M / revenue $12,241M = 20.78% (FY2024: $2,553M / $11,102M = 23.0%). This is AFTER $1,592M of stock-based compensation (13.0% of revenue) — the line Airbnb's headline 'Adjusted EBITDA Margin' of 35.1% adds back. It is also after ~$74M of lodging/withholding-tax reserves Airbnb classes as non-recurring, and it EXCLUDES the $705M of interest income, part of which is earned on customer funds (see special_cases). Margin fell 2.2pp in FY2025 because Airbnb spent into new businesses (Services and Experiences, launched May 2025) and marketing while revenue grew 10%. CROSS-CHECK, H1 2026: operating income $844M / $6,286M = 13.4% against 12.1% in H1 2025 — +1.3pp YoY. The first half is always thin; H2 2025 ran 27.6% ($1,894M on $6,873M).
Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast	16% → 11% → 10% → 9% → 8%	ESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rateUS 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model in this tracker.	5.2%	US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model in this tracker.
BetaYahoo Finance / yfinance published beta (5Y monthly): Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.161, used UNCHANGED. Airbnb listed in December 2020, so the 60-month window is now almost entirely post-IPO and post-pandemic-reopening; the early reopening whipsaw has rolled out of it. No normalization: travel is genuinely more cyclical than the market, and the stock just showed it (-21% in the month to 23 Sep on an AI-agent scare, +17% in a day on Q2). Each 0.1 of beta is worth roughly $4/share here. The reverse DCF in the explainer shows the price implies a discount rate of ~6.5%, i.e. a beta near 0.27 — no plausible beta closes the gap on its own.	1.16	Yahoo Finance / yfinance published beta (5Y monthly): Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.161, used UNCHANGED. Airbnb listed in December 2020, so the 60-month window is now almost entirely post-IPO and post-pandemic-reopening; the early reopening whipsaw has rolled out of it. No normalization: travel is genuinely more cyclical than the market, and the stock just showed it (-21% in the month to 23 Sep on an AI-agent scare, +17% in a day on Q2). Each 0.1 of beta is worth roughly $4/share here. The reverse DCF in the explainer shows the price implies a discount rate of ~6.5%, i.e. a beta near 0.27 — no plausible beta closes the gap on its own.
Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. For Airbnb this is on the CONSERVATIVE side of the judgement: the explicit forecast still has revenue growing 8% in 2030, so the step to 2.5% forever is abrupt, and global travel spending has historically grown faster than GDP. A 3.0% terminal rate adds ~$3.35/share. Must remain < WACC of ~10.9%.	2.5%	ESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. For Airbnb this is on the CONSERVATIVE side of the judgement: the explicit forecast still has revenue growing 8% in 2030, so the step to 2.5% forever is abrupt, and global travel spending has historically grown faster than GDP. A 3.0% terminal rate adds ~$3.35/share. Must remain < WACC of ~10.9%.
Diluted sharesAirbnb Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0001559720-26-000027, filed 2026-08-06): Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 597M (H1 2026: 602M; FY2025: 623M; FY2024: 645M). Falling fast: Airbnb bought back $3,789M of stock in FY2025 and $2,139M in H1 2026, more than offsetting issuance. NOTE THE WIDER COUNT: the Q2 letter puts the FULLY diluted count at 634M (590M outstanding + 44M stock-based awards). The treasury-method 597M is the house input; on 634M the per-share value would be ~6% lower. Because future SBC is expensed inside EBIT, using 634M would partly double-count it.	597M	Airbnb Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0001559720-26-000027, filed 2026-08-06): Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 597M (H1 2026: 602M; FY2025: 623M; FY2024: 645M). Falling fast: Airbnb bought back $3,789M of stock in FY2025 and $2,139M in H1 2026, more than offsetting issuance. NOTE THE WIDER COUNT: the Q2 letter puts the FULLY diluted count at 634M (590M outstanding + 44M stock-based awards). The treasury-method 597M is the house input; on 634M the per-share value would be ~6% lower. Because future SBC is expensed inside EBIT, using 634M would partly double-count it.
Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:16 UTC	$173.70	Delayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:16 UTC

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What does Airbnb, Inc. do?

What does it do?

Airbnb, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a platform for stays, experiences, and services worldwide. The company's marketplace connects hosts and guests online or through mobile devices to book spaces, experiences, and services. It operates in the Travel Services industry (Consumer Cyclical sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 8,200 people.

How does it make money?

The business turns $13.2B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $21 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 21.0%), after a 83% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 20.4% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.

Is it financially healthy?

Financially it looks solid: carries modest debt (0.3× equity), can just cover its short-term bills (1.4× current ratio), and is currently profitable.

Who at ABNB filed insider trades?

Recent insider filings for Airbnb, Inc.
Date	Insider	Relationship	What happened	Value	Filing
12 Oct 2026	Blecharczyk Nathan	Director, Chief Strategy Officer, 10% owner	Conversion	—	Form 4 for Blecharczyk Nathan (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
12 Oct 2026	Blecharczyk Nathan	Director, Chief Strategy Officer, 10% owner	Gift	—	Form 4 for Blecharczyk Nathan (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
12 Oct 2026	Blecharczyk Nathan	Director, Chief Strategy Officer, 10% owner	Open-market sale	$466,150.56	Form 4 for Blecharczyk Nathan (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
12 Oct 2026	Blecharczyk Nathan	Director, Chief Strategy Officer, 10% owner	Open-market sale	$702,872.19	Form 4 for Blecharczyk Nathan (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
12 Oct 2026	Blecharczyk Nathan	Director, Chief Strategy Officer, 10% owner	Open-market sale	$371,910.47	Form 4 for Blecharczyk Nathan (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
12 Oct 2026	Blecharczyk Nathan	Director, Chief Strategy Officer, 10% owner	Open-market sale	$540,862.16	Form 4 for Blecharczyk Nathan (opens sec.gov in a new tab)

A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans

Common questions

What is ABNB's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) is $92.56 per share, versus a market price of $173.70 (88% above fair value).
Is ABNB overvalued or undervalued?
On our blended fair value ABNB looks overvalued vs fair value at $173.70. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for ABNB?
A WACC of 10.9% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Airbnb stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) is $92.56 against a market price of $173.70. Our read: 88% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Airbnb (ABNB) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) is $92.56, built on a 10.9% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Airbnb stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $173.70. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Airbnb (ABNB) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB): Blecharczyk Nathan, Director, Chief Strategy Officer, 10% owner, conversion on 2026-10-12. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.