What is BKNG's intrinsic value?

TickerWorth's blended fair value for Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) is $233.41 per share, versus a market price of $163.45 (priced within our range of $161.38 – $326.01).

Is BKNG overvalued or undervalued?

Priced within our range of $161.38 – $326.01 at $163.45. We don't call BKNG overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.

What discount rate is used for BKNG?

A WACC of 10.0% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.

Is Booking stock undervalued?

TickerWorth's fair value for Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) is $233.41 against a market price of $163.45. Our read: Priced within our range of $161.38 – $326.01. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.

Booking (BKNG) DCF valuation and fair value

Our fair value for Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) is $233.41, built on a 10.0% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.

What growth is priced into Booking stock?

Today's price implies revenue growth of 6.4% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 6.9% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $163.45. A model estimate, not investment advice.

Booking (BKNG) insider trading

The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG): Pisano Paulo, CHIEF HUMAN RESOURCES OFFICER, open-market sale on 2026-10-15. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.

BKNG · Intrinsic value

Is Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) overvalued or undervalued?

Name: Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) DCF intrinsic value
Creator: TickerWorth

Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) trades at the delayed market price of $163.45 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of 6.4% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is $233.41 a share (priced within our range of $161.38 – $326.01). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range.

Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made

Open full BKNG analysis

Is BKNG fairly valued?

Fair value: $233.41
Market price: $163.45
Upside to fair value: +42.8%
Verdict: Priced within our range of $161.38 – $326.01

Price as of 19 Oct 2026, 12:45 UTC · Prices are delayed.

Fair value against the delayed market price: Priced within our range of $161.38 – $326.01.

Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 6.4% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 6.9% a year on average over the same horizon.

What is BKNG's TickerWorth Score?

A69/100

Scores higher than almost every company we compare it with

Compared with Consumer Cyclical companies in US

Its strongest point: a profitable, high-quality business. Its weakest: recent price trend has been weak.

Value · 49 of 100
Cheaper than 49% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Price vs worth · 84 of 100
Quality · 97 of 100
More profitable than 97% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Financial health · 63 of 100
Financially stronger than 63% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Growth · 70 of 100
Growing faster than 70% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US
Momentum · 43 of 100
Outperformed 43% of Consumer Cyclical companies in US over the past year

Confidence: High confidence · Scored 19 Oct 2026, 12:45 UTC

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Where the numbers come from

Hand-researched model

What the modeller flagged

YEAR-1 FCF (~$8.45B) IS ~7% BELOW BOOKING'S FY2025 REPORTED FCF ($9,086M) AND ~11% BELOW THE TTM ~$9.54B — inside the 20% line. The model expenses SBC and taxes EBIT at 21% (cash taxes ran higher, $2.28B), credits a ~$0.3B working-capital release, and leaves out ~$0.9B of interest income on cash that is counted in reported FCF but here sits in net debt instead. The TTM figure is flattered by the spring booking float.
WHAT THE AUTOMATIC MODEL SHOWED, AND WHY IT IS NOT REPRODUCIBLE TODAY. The +81% figure appears to be a stale snapshot: re-running the automatic model's code (app/auto.py) on today's data feed for BKNG gives ~$146 a share, about 8% BELOW today's price, because the feed now returns post-split figures (751M shares, $158 price) and FY2025's 32.8% margin fading toward 31.8%. This research lands between the two (+2%); the main differences from today's automatic run are the higher 35-36% margin path, crediting the booking float, and the seasonal and CNMC net-debt adjustments.
AI-AGENT DISINTERMEDIATION IS NOT MODELED AS A SCENARIO. On 23 September the stock fell 5.1% after Meta's Muse agent was shown booking travel and Expedia joined it as a connector. Booking is less exposed than a pure aggregator — its apps carried a mid-fifties percentage of room nights in 2025, 'the significant majority' of them direct (FY2025 10-K), and it aggregates a long tail of independent hotels and alternative accommodation that agents would otherwise have to reach one by one — but if agents own the traveler, both take rate and marketing efficiency are at risk. The base case haircuts growth via the fade, not take rate.
REGULATION IN EUROPE. Booking.com is an EU Digital Markets Act gatekeeper; the EU General Court upheld the eTraveli merger veto on 9 Sep 2026 (appeal possible); the Swiss price regulator ordered lower hotel commissions (suspended on appeal); investigations are open in Greece and Hungary; parity-clause class actions are pending or threatened in the Netherlands, Germany, Spain, France and the UK; and FTC staff said in July they intend to recommend a complaint against Priceline (10-Q Note 13). Only the accrued Spanish fine is deducted; the rest is unquantified.
TERMINAL VALUE IS ~72% OF ENTERPRISE VALUE — under the 75% line; the implied exit multiple is ~10.6x 2030 GAAP EBITDA.
THE INNOVATION BOX. A Dutch 9% rate on qualifying innovation income holds the group's rate near 21%. If it were reduced or eliminated (the 10-K lists it as a risk), the rate would move toward the 25.8% Dutch statutory rate; each 2pts of tax is worth ~$4/share.
Y1 MARGIN IS ARITHMETIC ON GUIDANCE. The 35.0% operating margin is derived from the 'high single digits' Adjusted EBITDA growth guide by subtracting D&A and Transformation costs. 'High single digits' spans ~7-9%, worth about ±0.3pt of margin.

BKNG DCF valuation, input by input

TickerWorth's fair value for Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) is $233.41 a share, against the delayed market price of $163.45 (priced within our range of $161.38 – $326.01). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.

Read the full reasoning

One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values BKNG at about $161.38 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.

The valuation discounts Booking Holdings Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.0%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 72% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 6.4% annual revenue growth for BKNG. Our base case instead compounds to about 6.9% a year over the same forecast, so the market's implied growth is broadly in line with our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, BKNG's modeled DCF value ranges from about $122.27 to $238.96 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Booking Holdings Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of BKNG's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

Every input behind BKNG's DCF

Input	Value	Source
Base-year revenueBooking Holdings FY2025 10-K (accession 0001075531-26-000009, filed 2026-02-18): FY2025 revenue $26,917M, +13.4% on FY2024's $23,739M (FY2023 $21,365M). Mix: merchant $17,755M, agency $7,968M, advertising and other $1,194M — merchant overtook agency in 2024 and the shift continues (merchant +26%, agency -7% in FY2025) as Booking.com processes more payments itself. Quarterly FY2025: Q1 $4,762M, Q2 $6,798M, Q3 $9,008M, Q4 $6,349M — revenue is recognized at the STAY (check-in), so Q3 is the peak. Revenue is commissions and merchant margin; the ~$186B of gross bookings flowing through the platform are NOT revenue. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue $12,884M, +11.5% on H1 2025's $11,560M (Q1 +16%, helped ~7pts by FX; Q2 +8.1%); TTM to 2026-06-30 $28,241M. UNCHANGED as the base — the new year belongs in the forecast.	$26,917,000,000	Booking Holdings FY2025 10-K (accession 0001075531-26-000009, filed 2026-02-18): FY2025 revenue $26,917M, +13.4% on FY2024's $23,739M (FY2023 $21,365M). Mix: merchant $17,755M, agency $7,968M, advertising and other $1,194M — merchant overtook agency in 2024 and the shift continues (merchant +26%, agency -7% in FY2025) as Booking.com processes more payments itself. Quarterly FY2025: Q1 $4,762M, Q2 $6,798M, Q3 $9,008M, Q4 $6,349M — revenue is recognized at the STAY (check-in), so Q3 is the peak. Revenue is commissions and merchant margin; the ~$186B of gross bookings flowing through the platform are NOT revenue. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue $12,884M, +11.5% on H1 2025's $11,560M (Q1 +16%, helped ~7pts by FX; Q2 +8.1%); TTM to 2026-06-30 $28,241M. UNCHANGED as the base — the new year belongs in the forecast.
Base EBIT marginBooking Holdings FY2025 10-K (accession 0001075531-26-000009, filed 2026-02-18): GAAP operating income $8,825M / revenue $26,917M = 32.8% (FY2024 $7,555M = 31.8%; FY2023 $5,835M = 27.3%). It is AFTER $613M of stock-based compensation (2.3% of revenue), $623M of D&A, a $457M impairment (Q3 2025, goodwill/intangibles) and $205M of Transformation Program costs, and it INCLUDES a $123M (Personnel) release of the Netherlands pension accrual. Ex those three one-offs: $9,364M = 34.8% — the underlying level the forecast starts from. Company 'Adjusted EBITDA' was $9,937M (36.9%); unlike most peers Booking does NOT add back stock pay in that measure. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 GAAP operating income $3,771M / $12,884M = 29.3% vs 28.7% in H1 2025 (the first half is seasonally thin: marketing is spent at booking, revenue lands at the stay; Q3 2025 alone ran 38.7%, 43.7% ex impairment). TTM to 2026-06-30: $9,284M / $28,241M = 32.9%, or 34.5% ex the impairment. H1 2026 includes an $89M litigation-settlement gain and a $14M Canadian DST benefit.	32.8%	Booking Holdings FY2025 10-K (accession 0001075531-26-000009, filed 2026-02-18): GAAP operating income $8,825M / revenue $26,917M = 32.8% (FY2024 $7,555M = 31.8%; FY2023 $5,835M = 27.3%). It is AFTER $613M of stock-based compensation (2.3% of revenue), $623M of D&A, a $457M impairment (Q3 2025, goodwill/intangibles) and $205M of Transformation Program costs, and it INCLUDES a $123M (Personnel) release of the Netherlands pension accrual. Ex those three one-offs: $9,364M = 34.8% — the underlying level the forecast starts from. Company 'Adjusted EBITDA' was $9,937M (36.9%); unlike most peers Booking does NOT add back stock pay in that measure. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 GAAP operating income $3,771M / $12,884M = 29.3% vs 28.7% in H1 2025 (the first half is seasonally thin: marketing is spent at booking, revenue lands at the stay; Q3 2025 alone ran 38.7%, 43.7% ex impairment). TTM to 2026-06-30: $9,284M / $28,241M = 32.9%, or 34.5% ex the impairment. H1 2026 includes an $89M litigation-settlement gain and a $14M Canadian DST benefit.
Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast	8% → 7% → 7% → 6% → 6%	ESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rateUS 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model in this tracker.	5.2%	US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model in this tracker.
BetaYahoo Finance / yfinance published beta (5Y monthly): Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.128, used UNCHANGED — the same source and treatment as the EXPE (1.362) and ABNB (1.161) models. Booking is the least volatile of the three: it is the largest, most profitable and most diversified (lodging, flights, cars, restaurants via OpenTable; Europe- and Asia-weighted). The window starts in late 2021 and excludes the 2020 collapse. Each 0.1 of beta is worth ~$9/share; a beta of 1.0 would add ~$14.	1.13	Yahoo Finance / yfinance published beta (5Y monthly): Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.128, used UNCHANGED — the same source and treatment as the EXPE (1.362) and ABNB (1.161) models. Booking is the least volatile of the three: it is the largest, most profitable and most diversified (lodging, flights, cars, restaurants via OpenTable; Europe- and Asia-weighted). The window starts in late 2021 and excludes the 2020 collapse. Each 0.1 of beta is worth ~$9/share; a beta of 1.0 would add ~$14.
Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability with EXPE and ABNB. The step down from 6.0% in 2030 is meaningful for the world's largest online travel agency; global travel spending has historically grown somewhat faster than GDP, so this leans conservative. A 3.0% terminal rate adds ~$9/share. Must remain < WACC of ~10.0%.	2.5%	ESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability with EXPE and ABNB. The step down from 6.0% in 2030 is meaningful for the world's largest online travel agency; global travel spending has historically grown somewhat faster than GDP, so this leans conservative. A 3.0% terminal rate adds ~$9/share. Must remain < WACC of ~10.0%.
Diluted sharesBooking Holdings Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0001075531-26-000037, filed 2026-08-04): ⚠️ STOCK SPLIT: 25-for-1 on 2 April 2026 (8-K accession 0000950157-26-000465). Every pre-April per-share figure must be divided by 25 — FY2025's 32.639M diluted shares is 816M on today's basis. Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 770M (H1 2026: 782M; Q2 2025: 815M), split-adjusted in the filing. Falling fast: $7.76B of buybacks in H1 2026 ($3.7B in Q2) and $14.5B of authorization left. The period-end count is lower still — 751.4M outstanding at 27 July — so the weighted figure, the house rule, is slightly conservative: using ~753M (outstanding plus ~2M of award dilution) would add ~$3.50/share. No convertibles remain (the 2025 converts matured in May 2025).	770M	Booking Holdings Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0001075531-26-000037, filed 2026-08-04): ⚠️ STOCK SPLIT: 25-for-1 on 2 April 2026 (8-K accession 0000950157-26-000465). Every pre-April per-share figure must be divided by 25 — FY2025's 32.639M diluted shares is 816M on today's basis. Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 770M (H1 2026: 782M; Q2 2025: 815M), split-adjusted in the filing. Falling fast: $7.76B of buybacks in H1 2026 ($3.7B in Q2) and $14.5B of authorization left. The period-end count is lower still — 751.4M outstanding at 27 July — so the weighted figure, the house rule, is slightly conservative: using ~753M (outstanding plus ~2M of award dilution) would add ~$3.50/share. No convertibles remain (the 2025 converts matured in May 2025).
Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 12:45 UTC	$163.45	Delayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 12:45 UTC

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What does Booking Holdings Inc. do?

What does it do?

Booking Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides online and traditional travel and restaurant reservations and related services in the United States, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company operates Booking.com, which offers online accommodation reservations; and Priceline, which provides discount travel reservations services, as well as online accommodation, flight, rental car reservation services, vacation packages, cruises, activity, and affiliate programs. It operates in the Travel Services industry (Consumer Cyclical sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 25,550 people.

How does it make money?

The business turns $28.2B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $34 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 34.4%), after a 87% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 25.5% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.

Is it financially healthy?

Financially it looks mixed: can just cover its short-term bills (1.1× current ratio), and is currently profitable.

Who at BKNG filed insider trades?

Recent insider filings for Booking Holdings Inc.
Date	Insider	Relationship	What happened	Value	Filing
15 Oct 2026	Pisano Paulo	CHIEF HUMAN RESOURCES OFFICER	Open-market sale	$244,590.00	Form 4 for Pisano Paulo (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
15 Sept 2026	Pisano Paulo	CHIEF HUMAN RESOURCES OFFICER	Open-market sale	$259,530.00	Form 4 for Pisano Paulo (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
1 Sept 2026	MYLOD ROBERT J JR	Director	Open-market sale	$200,000.00	Form 4 for MYLOD ROBERT J JR (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
31 Aug 2026	Pisano Paulo	CHIEF HUMAN RESOURCES OFFICER	Open-market sale	$610,440.00	Form 4 for Pisano Paulo (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
17 Aug 2026	MILLONES PETER J	EXECUTIVE VP, GENERAL COUNSEL	Open-market sale	$1,910,792.28	Form 4 for MILLONES PETER J (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
17 Aug 2026	MILLONES PETER J	EXECUTIVE VP, GENERAL COUNSEL	Open-market sale	$2,537,666.45	Form 4 for MILLONES PETER J (opens sec.gov in a new tab)

A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans

Common questions

What is BKNG's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) is $233.41 per share, versus a market price of $163.45 (priced within our range of $161.38 – $326.01).
Is BKNG overvalued or undervalued?
Priced within our range of $161.38 – $326.01 at $163.45. We don't call BKNG overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for BKNG?
A WACC of 10.0% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Booking stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) is $233.41 against a market price of $163.45. Our read: Priced within our range of $161.38 – $326.01. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Booking (BKNG) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) is $233.41, built on a 10.0% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Booking stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 6.4% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 6.9% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $163.45. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Booking (BKNG) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG): Pisano Paulo, CHIEF HUMAN RESOURCES OFFICER, open-market sale on 2026-10-15. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.