ERIE · Intrinsic value
Is Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) at $132.78 – $377.84, too broad a range to say where the delayed market price of $242.25 sits in it, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
What is ERIE worth?
- Fair-value range
- $132.78 – $377.84
- Market price
- $242.25
- Gap to fair value
- —
- Verdict
- Too wide to call
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 4.9% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 4.7% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is ERIE's TickerWorth Score?
Scores lower than almost every company we compare it with
Compared with Financial Services companies in US
Its strongest point: strong balance sheet. Its weakest: looks expensive on the numbers.
- Value · 34 of 100
Cheaper than 34% of Financial Services companies in US
- Price vs worth · 50 of 100
- Quality · 36 of 100
More profitable than 36% of Financial Services companies in US
- Financial health · 60 of 100
Financially stronger than 60% of Financial Services companies in US
- Growth · 34 of 100
Growing faster than 34% of Financial Services companies in US
- Momentum · 13 of 100
Outperformed 13% of Financial Services companies in US over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
Get the Undervalued Company of the Week.
Why ERIE gets a range, not one number
At a recent price of $242.25, Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $132.78 and $377.84 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts Erie Indemnity Company's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.0%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 80% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 4.9% annual revenue growth for ERIE. Our base case instead compounds to about 4.7% a year over the same forecast, so the market's implied growth is broadly in line with our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, ERIE's modeled DCF value ranges from about $161.63 to $508.41 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Erie Indemnity Company would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of ERIE's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind ERIE's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueERIE INDEMNITY COMPANY FY2025 10-K (accession 0001628280-26-010666): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 full year. | $4,067,260,000 |
| Base EBIT marginERIE INDEMNITY COMPANY FY2025 10-K (accession 0001628280-26-010666): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 717,184,000 / revenue 4,067,258,000 = 17.63%, FY2025. | 17.6% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 5% → 5% → 5% → 4% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.1% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 0.40 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesLive feed — sharesOutstanding | 52M |
| Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 21:43 UTC | $242.25 |
Change ERIE's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does Erie Indemnity Company do?
What does it do?
Erie Indemnity Company operates as a managing attorney-in-fact for the subscribers at the Erie Insurance Exchange in the United States. It provides issuance and renewal services; sales related services, including agent compensation and sales and advertising support services; underwriting services that include underwriting and policy processing; and other services consist of customer services and administrative support services, as well as information technology services. It operates in the Insurance Brokers industry (Financial Services sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 6,667 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $4.1B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $19 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 19.1%), after a 18% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 14.0% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks mixed: carries heavy debt (2.6× equity), can just cover its short-term bills (1.2× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at ERIE filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shine Sarah | Executive Vice President | Other acquisition/disposition | $1,455.38 | Form 4 for Shine Sarah (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| DaBreo Anthony | Senior Vice President, Life | Other acquisition/disposition | $1,055.65 | Form 4 for DaBreo Anthony (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Cook Cody | Executive Vice President | Other acquisition/disposition | $1,579.85 | Form 4 for Cook Cody (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Shine Sarah | Executive Vice President | Other acquisition/disposition | $1,049.58 | Form 4 for Shine Sarah (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| DaBreo Anthony | Senior Vice President, Life | Other acquisition/disposition | $199.08 | Form 4 for DaBreo Anthony (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Cook Cody | Executive Vice President | Other acquisition/disposition | $1,128.30 | Form 4 for Cook Cody (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is ERIE's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) between $132.78 and $377.84 per share, versus a market price of $242.25. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is ERIE overvalued or undervalued?
At $242.25 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call ERIE overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for ERIE?
A WACC of 7.0% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Erie Indemnity stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) is $132.78 – $377.84 against a market price of $242.25. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Erie Indemnity (ERIE) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) is $132.78 – $377.84, built on a 7.0% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Erie Indemnity stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 4.9% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 4.7% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $242.25. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Erie Indemnity (ERIE) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE): Shine Sarah, Executive Vice President, other acquisition/disposition on 2026-09-30. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Other ways into the coverage
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.