EXPD · Intrinsic value
Is Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) overvalued or undervalued?
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) trades at the delayed market price of $197.26 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of 23.1% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is $135.55 a share (46% above fair value), as of Oct 19, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is EXPD overvalued?
- Fair value
- $135.55
- Market price
- $197.26
- Downside to fair value
- 31.3%
- Verdict
- 46% above fair value
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 23.1% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 11.0% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is EXPD's TickerWorth Score?
Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses
Compared with Industrials companies in US
Its strongest point: recent price trend has been strong. Its weakest: trades above our estimate of what it's worth.
- Value · 42 of 100
Cheaper than 42% of Industrials companies in US
- Price vs worth · 25 of 100
- Quality · 44 of 100
More profitable than 44% of Industrials companies in US
- Financial health · 79 of 100
Financially stronger than 79% of Industrials companies in US
- Growth · 63 of 100
Growing faster than 63% of Industrials companies in US
- Momentum · 98 of 100
Outperformed 98% of Industrials companies in US over the past year
Confidence: High confidence · Scored
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EXPD DCF valuation: what the price assumes
At a recent price of $197.25, Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) trades 46% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $135.55 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices EXPD overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -31.3% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
Read the full reasoning
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values EXPD at about $125.92 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.0%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 72% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 23.1% annual revenue growth for EXPD. Our base case instead compounds to about 11.0% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, EXPD's modeled DCF value ranges from about $97.43 to $182.55 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of EXPD's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind EXPD's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueEXPEDITORS INTERNATIONAL OF WASHINGTON, INC. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001193125-26-071569): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 full year. | $11,069,010,000 |
| Base EBIT marginEXPEDITORS INTERNATIONAL OF WASHINGTON, INC. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001193125-26-071569): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 1,052,546,000 / revenue 11,069,009,000 = 9.51%, FY2025. | 9.5% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 18% → 15% → 11% → 8% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.1% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 1.06 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesEXPEDITORS INTERNATIONAL OF WASHINGTON, INC. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001193125-26-071569): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 136,249,000 shares, FY2025. | 136M |
| Market priceBackup price feed · as of 2026-10-19 13:53 UTC | $197.25 |
Change EXPD's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
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What does Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. do?
What does it do?
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides logistics services in the Americas, North Asia, South Asia, Europe, and Middle East, Africa, and India. The company offers airfreight services, such as air freight consolidation and forwarding; ocean freight and ocean services, including ocean freight consolidation, direct ocean forwarding, and order management; customs brokerage and other services, import, intra-continental ground transportation and delivery, and warehousing and distribution services; and customs clearance, purchase order management, vendor consolidation, time-definite transportation services, temperature-controlled transit, cargo insurance, specialized cargo monitoring and tracking, and other logistics solutions. It operates in the Integrated Freight & Logistics industry (Industrials sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 20,389 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $12.0B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $11 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 10.7%), after a 14% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 7.6% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks solid: carries modest debt (0.3× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (1.6× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
EXPD insider trading
We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.. Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.
Common questions
What is EXPD's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) is $135.55 per share, versus a market price of $197.25 (46% above fair value).
Is EXPD overvalued or undervalued?
On our blended fair value EXPD looks overvalued vs fair value at $197.25. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for EXPD?
A WACC of 10.0% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Expeditors International of Washington stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) is $135.55 against a market price of $197.26. Our read: 46% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) is $135.55, built on a 10.0% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Expeditors International of Washington stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 23.1% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 11.0% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $197.26. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) insider trading
We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD). Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.
Stocks below our fair value instead
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.