FAST · Intrinsic value
Is Fastenal Company (FAST) overvalued or undervalued?
Fastenal Company (FAST) trades at the delayed market price of $50.94 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. TickerWorth's fair value is $22.76 a share (124% above fair value), as of Oct 19, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is FAST overvalued?
- Fair value
- $22.76
- Market price
- $50.94
- Downside to fair value
- 55.3%
- Verdict
- 124% above fair value
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast.
What is FAST's TickerWorth Score?
Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses
Compared with Industrials companies in US
Its strongest point: a profitable, high-quality business. Its weakest: looks expensive on the numbers.
- Value · 16 of 100
Cheaper than 16% of Industrials companies in US
- Price vs worth · 6 of 100
- Quality · 81 of 100
More profitable than 81% of Industrials companies in US
- Financial health · 86 of 100
Financially stronger than 86% of Industrials companies in US
- Growth · 45 of 100
Growing faster than 45% of Industrials companies in US
- Momentum · 88 of 100
Outperformed 88% of Industrials companies in US over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
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FAST DCF valuation: what the price assumes
At a recent price of $50.94, Fastenal Company (FAST) trades 124% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $22.76 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices FAST overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -55.3% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
Read the full reasoning
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values FAST at about $24.12 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts Fastenal Company's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 8.3%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 77% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — FAST would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against about 7.7% a year compounded in our base case. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, FAST's modeled DCF value ranges from about $17.37 to $40.95 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Fastenal Company would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of FAST's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind FAST's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueFASTENAL CO FY2025 10-K (accession 0000815556-26-000009): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 full year. | $8,200,500,000 |
| Base EBIT marginFASTENAL CO FY2025 10-K (accession 0000815556-26-000009): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 1,655,700,000 / revenue 8,200,500,000 = 20.19%, FY2025. | 20.2% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 11% → 10% → 8% → 6% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.1% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 0.69 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesFASTENAL CO FY2025 10-K (accession 0000815556-26-000009): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 1,150,334,204 shares, FY2025. | 1,150M |
| Market priceBackup price feed · as of 2026-10-19 13:53 UTC | $50.94 |
Change FAST's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does Fastenal Company do?
What does it do?
Fastenal Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the wholesale distribution of industrial and construction supplies in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally. It offers fasteners, and related industrial and construction supplies under the Fastenal name. It operates in the Industrial Distribution industry (Industrials sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 21,749 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $9.1B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $22 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 21.5%), after a 45% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 15.6% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks mixed: carries modest debt (0.1× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (3.9× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at FAST filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Papenfuss Donnalee Kathleen | EVP-Strategy and Communication | Option exercise | $18,755.00 | Form 4 for Papenfuss Donnalee Kathleen (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Papenfuss Donnalee Kathleen | EVP-Strategy and Communication | Open-market sale | $70,132.11 | Form 4 for Papenfuss Donnalee Kathleen (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Papenfuss Donnalee Kathleen | EVP-Strategy and Communication | Option exercise | $149,986.00 | Form 4 for Papenfuss Donnalee Kathleen (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Papenfuss Donnalee Kathleen | EVP-Strategy and Communication | Open-market sale | $405,626.09 | Form 4 for Papenfuss Donnalee Kathleen (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Ancius Michael J | Director | Gift | — | Form 4 for Ancius Michael J (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Ancius Michael J | Director | Option exercise | $41,250.00 | Form 4 for Ancius Michael J (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is FAST's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Fastenal Company (FAST) is $22.76 per share, versus a market price of $50.94 (124% above fair value).
Is FAST overvalued or undervalued?
On our blended fair value FAST looks overvalued vs fair value at $50.94. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for FAST?
A WACC of 8.3% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Fastenal stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Fastenal Company (FAST) is $22.76 against a market price of $50.94. Our read: 124% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Fastenal (FAST) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Fastenal Company (FAST) is $22.76, built on a 8.3% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Fastenal stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $50.94. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Fastenal (FAST) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Fastenal Company (FAST): Papenfuss Donnalee Kathleen, EVP-Strategy and Communication, option exercise on 2026-08-13. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Stocks below our fair value instead
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.