FLY · Intrinsic value
Is Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth publishes a fair-value range of $7.65 – $7.65 for Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY), against the delayed market price of $17.10: priced above our range. It is a range, not a single number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
What is FLY worth?
- Fair-value range
- $7.65 – $7.65
- Market price
- $17.10
- Gap to fair value
- —
- Verdict
- Priced above our range
Reverse DCF, on our cash-flow model rather than the range above: Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast.
What is FLY's TickerWorth Score?
Priced far above peers — the business scores well
Compared with Industrials companies in US
Its strongest point: growing quickly. Its weakest: profitability is weak.
- Value · 30 of 100
Cheaper than 30% of Industrials companies in US
- Price vs worth · 6 of 100
- Quality · 9 of 100
More profitable than 9% of Industrials companies in US
- Financial health · 62 of 100
Financially stronger than 62% of Industrials companies in US
- Growth · 100 of 100
Growing faster than virtually every one of the Industrials companies in US
- Momentum · 7 of 100
Outperformed 7% of Industrials companies in US over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
Get the Undervalued Company of the Week.
Why FLY gets a range, not one number
At a recent price of $17.10, Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) sits above every lens we ran: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $7.65 and $7.65 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.3%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 72% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — FLY would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against about 16.6% a year compounded in our base case. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, FLY's modeled DCF value ranges from about $3.98 to $4.41 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Firefly Aerospace Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of FLY's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind FLY's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueLive feed — totalRevenue (TTM) | $287,010,000 |
| Base EBIT marginComputed — trailing operatingMargins, held roughly flat | 2.0% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 30% → 24% → 17% → 10% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.2% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 1.10 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesLive feed — sharesOutstanding | 167M |
| Market priceLast known price · as of 2026-10-19 19:22 UTC | $17.10 |
Change FLY's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
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What does Firefly Aerospace Inc. do?
What does it do?
Firefly Aerospace Inc. operates as a space and defense technology company and provides mission solutions for national security, government, and commercial customers in United States. It operates in the Aerospace & Defense industry (Industrials sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 1,409 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $160M in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $0 is left as operating profit (operating margin of -80.9%), after a 23% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, -129.1% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks mixed: carries heavy debt (4.4× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (2.7× current ratio), and is currently lossmaking.
Who at FLY filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ambrose Richard F | Director | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for Ambrose Richard F (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| AEROEQUITY GP, LLC | 10% owner | Other acquisition/disposition | — | Form 4 for AEROEQUITY GP, LLC (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Kim Jesung | Director, Chief Executive Officer | Option exercise | $99,998.15 | Form 4 for Kim Jesung (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Ma Darren | Chief Financial Officer | Option exercise | $22,968.41 | Form 4 for Ma Darren (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Ma Darren | Chief Financial Officer | Option exercise | $16,224.35 | Form 4 for Ma Darren (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Ferring Russell Shea | Chief Technology Officer | Shares withheld (tax) | $338,676.00 | Form 4 for Ferring Russell Shea (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is FLY's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) between $7.65 and $7.65 per share, versus a market price of $17.10. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is FLY overvalued or undervalued?
At $17.10 the price sits above every lens we ran. We don't call FLY overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for FLY?
A WACC of 10.3% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Firefly Aerospace stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) is $7.65 – $7.65 against a market price of $17.10. Priced above our range. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Firefly Aerospace (FLY) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) is $7.65 – $7.65, built on a 10.3% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Firefly Aerospace stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $17.10. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Firefly Aerospace (FLY) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY): Ambrose Richard F, Director, grant / award on 2026-10-05. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Other ways into the coverage
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.