FOUR · Intrinsic value
Is Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR) overvalued or undervalued?
Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR) trades at the delayed market price of $39.93 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of 9.1% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is $120.00 a share (67% below fair value), as of Oct 19, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is FOUR undervalued?
- Fair value
- $120.00
- Market price
- $39.93
- Upside to fair value
- +200.5%
- Verdict
- 67% below fair value
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 9.1% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 16.6% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is FOUR's TickerWorth Score?
Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses
Compared with Technology companies in US
Its strongest point: trades below our estimate of what it's worth. Its weakest: balance sheet looks stretched.
- Value · 70 of 100
Cheaper than 70% of Technology companies in US
- Price vs worth · 100 of 100
- Quality · 31 of 100
More profitable than 31% of Technology companies in US
- Financial health · 12 of 100
Financially stronger than 12% of Technology companies in US
- Growth · 57 of 100
Growing faster than 57% of Technology companies in US
- Momentum · 7 of 100
Outperformed 7% of Technology companies in US over the past year
Confidence: High confidence · Scored
Get the Undervalued Company of the Week.
FOUR DCF valuation: where the gap comes from
At a recent price of $39.93, Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR) trades 67% below TickerWorth's blended fair value of $120.00 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices FOUR undervalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits above the market, an implied +200.5% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
Read the full reasoning
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values FOUR at about $78.68 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts Shift4 Payments, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.9%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 80% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 9.1% annual revenue growth for FOUR. Our base case instead compounds to about 16.6% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in slower growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, FOUR's modeled DCF value ranges from about $41.02 to $181.56 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Shift4 Payments, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of FOUR's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind FOUR's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueSHIFT4 PAYMENTS, INC. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001794669-26-000010): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 full year. | $4,180,000,000 |
| Base EBIT marginSHIFT4 PAYMENTS, INC. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001794669-26-000010): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 351,000,000 / revenue 4,180,000,000 = 8.40%, FY2025. | 8.4% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 30% → 24% → 17% → 10% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 4.7% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 1.41 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesLive feed — sharesOutstanding | 79M |
| Market priceLast known price · as of 2026-10-19 21:41 UTC | $39.93 |
Change FOUR's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does Shift4 Payments, Inc. do?
What does it do?
Shift4 Payments, Inc. engages in the provision of software and payment processing solutions in the United States and internationally. It operates in the Software - Infrastructure industry (Technology sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 6,300 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $4.2B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $7 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 7.5%), after a 36% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 2.2% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks stretched: carries heavy debt (2.6× equity), can just cover its short-term bills (1.2× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at FOUR filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cruz Christopher Nestor | See Remarks | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for Cruz Christopher Nestor (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Cruz Christopher Nestor | See Remarks | Shares withheld (tax) | $782,599.53 | Form 4 for Cruz Christopher Nestor (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Bakhshandehpour Sam | Director | Grant / award | $210,018.00 | Form 4 for Bakhshandehpour Sam (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Goldsmith-Grover Sarah | Director | Grant / award | $210,018.00 | Form 4 for Goldsmith-Grover Sarah (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Dallaire Seth | Director | Grant / award | $210,018.00 | Form 4 for Dallaire Seth (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Davis Karen Roter | Director | Grant / award | $210,018.00 | Form 4 for Davis Karen Roter (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is FOUR's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR) is $120.00 per share, versus a market price of $39.93 (67% below fair value).
Is FOUR overvalued or undervalued?
On our blended fair value FOUR looks undervalued vs fair value at $39.93. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for FOUR?
A WACC of 7.9% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Shift4 Payments stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR) is $120.00 against a market price of $39.93. Our read: 67% below fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Shift4 Payments (FOUR) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR) is $120.00, built on a 7.9% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Shift4 Payments stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 9.1% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 16.6% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $39.93. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Shift4 Payments (FOUR) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR): Cruz Christopher Nestor, See Remarks, grant / award on 2026-08-07. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
More stocks below our fair value
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.