GMG.AX · Intrinsic value
Is Goodman Group (GMG.AX) overvalued or undervalued?
Goodman Group (GMG.AX) trades at the delayed market price of A$26.28 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of 20.6% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's dcf fair value is A$23.04 a share (14% above fair value), as of Oct 19, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is GMG.AX overvalued?
- DCF fair value
- A$23.04
- Market price
- A$26.28
- Downside to fair value
- 12.3%
- Verdict
- 14% above fair value
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 20.6% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 16.6% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is GMG.AX's TickerWorth Score?
A stronger business than most — but not cheap
Compared with Real Estate companies in Australia
Its strongest point: a profitable, high-quality business. Its weakest: recent price trend has been weak.
- Value · 46 of 100
Cheaper than 46% of Real Estate companies worldwide
- Price vs worth · — of 100
- Quality · 85 of 100
More profitable than 85% of Real Estate companies worldwide
- Financial health · 92 of 100
Financially stronger than 92% of Real Estate companies worldwide
- Growth · 88 of 100
Growing faster than 88% of Real Estate companies worldwide
- Momentum · 12 of 100
Outperformed 12% of Real Estate companies worldwide over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
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GMG.AX DCF valuation: what the price assumes
At a recent price of A$26.28, Goodman Group (GMG.AX) trades 14% above TickerWorth's base-case discounted-cash-flow (DCF) fair value of A$23.04 per share — meaning the market currently prices GMG.AX overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -12.3% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts Goodman Group's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.5%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 75% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 20.6% annual revenue growth for GMG.AX. Our base case instead compounds to about 16.6% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, GMG.AX's modeled DCF value ranges from about A$17.06 to A$35.65 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Goodman Group would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of GMG.AX's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind GMG.AX's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueLive feed — totalRevenue (TTM) | A$4,060,100,000 |
| Base EBIT marginComputed — reported operating margin exceeded the EBITDA margin (impossible); held to 57.1% so D&A stays positive | 57.1% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 30% → 24% → 17% → 10% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.1% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 1.01 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesLive feed — sharesOutstanding | 2,055M |
| Market priceLive feed — delayed quote · as of 2026-10-19T20:14:02+00:00 | A$26.28 |
Change GMG.AX's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
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What does Goodman Group do?
What does it do?
Goodman Group is a provider of essential infrastructure. It owns, develops and manages high quality, sustainable logistics properties and data centres in major global cities, that are critical to the digital economy. It operates in the REIT - Diversified industry (Real Estate sector), headquartered in Australia. The company employs roughly 1,061 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $4.1B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $61 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 61.0%), after a 81% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 68.4% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks solid: carries modest debt (0.2× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (3.6× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
GMG.AX insider trading
Insider filings are available for US-listed companies only.
Common questions
What is GMG.AX's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's base-case DCF fair value for Goodman Group (GMG.AX) is A$23.04 per share, versus a market price of A$26.28 (14% above fair value).
Is GMG.AX overvalued or undervalued?
On our DCF model GMG.AX looks overvalued vs fair value at A$26.28. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for GMG.AX?
A WACC of 9.5% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Goodman Group stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's dcf fair value for Goodman Group (GMG.AX) is A$23.04 against a market price of A$26.28. Our read: 14% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Goodman Group (GMG.AX) DCF valuation and fair value
Our dcf fair value for Goodman Group (GMG.AX) is A$23.04, built on a 9.5% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Goodman Group stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 20.6% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 16.6% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of A$26.28. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Goodman Group (GMG.AX) insider trading
We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Goodman Group (GMG.AX). Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.
Stocks below our fair value instead
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.