GWRE · Intrinsic value
Is Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE) overvalued or undervalued?
Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE) trades at the delayed market price of $189.19 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. TickerWorth's fair value is $75.78 a share (150% above fair value), as of Oct 22, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 22, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is GWRE overvalued?
- Fair value
- $75.78
- Market price
- $189.19
- Downside to fair value
- 59.9%
- Verdict
- 150% above fair value
Reverse DCF, on our cash-flow model rather than the fair value above: Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast.
What is GWRE's TickerWorth Score?
Priced far above peers — the business scores well
Compared with Technology companies in US
Its strongest point: strong balance sheet. Its weakest: trades above our estimate of what it's worth.
- Value · 24 of 100
Cheaper than 24% of Technology companies in US
- Price vs worth · 2 of 100
- Quality · 51 of 100
More profitable than 51% of Technology companies in US
- Financial health · 55 of 100
Financially stronger than 55% of Technology companies in US
- Growth · 48 of 100
Growing faster than 48% of Technology companies in US
- Momentum · 56 of 100
Outperformed 56% of Technology companies in US over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
Get the Undervalued Company of the Week.
GWRE DCF valuation: what the price assumes
At a recent price of $189.19, Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE) trades 150% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $75.78 per share. For this company that blend leans on peer multiples: our discounted-cash-flow model holds margins flat and fades growth toward a long-run rate, which systematically understates a business growing this fast, so its figure (about $9.73) is shown as a reference beside the range rather than blended into it. Our estimate sits below the market — read that as a statement about how the market prices GWRE against comparable companies, not as a finding that it is overvalued on cash flow. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts Guidewire Software, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.6%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 54% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — GWRE would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against about 8.5% a year compounded in our base case. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, GWRE's modeled DCF value ranges from about $7.86 to $13.52 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Guidewire Software, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of GWRE's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind GWRE's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueGuidewire Software, Inc. FY2026 10-K (accession 0001528396-26-000046): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2026 full year. | $1,475,360,000 |
| Base EBIT marginGuidewire Software, Inc. FY2026 10-K (accession 0001528396-26-000046): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 149,874,000 / revenue 1,475,363,000 = 10.16%, FY2026. | 10.2% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 13% → 11% → 9% → 6% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.0% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 1.03 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesGuidewire Software, Inc. FY2026 10-K (accession 0001528396-26-000046): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 85,405,177 shares, FY2026. | 85M |
| Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-22 15:06 UTC | $189.19 |
Change GWRE's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does Guidewire Software, Inc. do?
What does it do?
Guidewire Software, Inc. provides a platform for property and casualty (P&C) insurers the United States, Canada, other Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia-Pacific. It operates in the Software - Application industry (Technology sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 4,174 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $1.5B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $15 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 15.2%), after a 64% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 9.4% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks solid: carries modest debt (0.6× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (1.8× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at GWRE filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mullen John P | President | Open-market sale | $999,000.00 | Form 4 for Mullen John P (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Rosenbaum Michael George | Director, Chief Executive Officer | Open-market sale | $201,480.00 | Form 4 for Rosenbaum Michael George (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Rosenbaum Michael George | Director, Chief Executive Officer | Open-market sale | $202,764.00 | Form 4 for Rosenbaum Michael George (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| King James Winston | Chief Admin Officer, Gen Couns | Open-market sale | $1,543,416.00 | Form 4 for King James Winston (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Rosenbaum Michael George | Director, Chief Executive Officer | Open-market sale | $183,024.00 | Form 4 for Rosenbaum Michael George (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Rosenbaum Michael George | Director, Chief Executive Officer | Open-market sale | $171,180.00 | Form 4 for Rosenbaum Michael George (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is GWRE's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE) is $75.78 per share, versus a market price of $189.19 (150% above fair value).
Is GWRE overvalued or undervalued?
Our cash-flow model understates a business growing this fast, so we don't call GWRE overvalued on it. Against a blend that leans on peer multiples, the price of $189.19 sits 150% above our estimate. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for GWRE?
A WACC of 9.6% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Guidewire Software stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE) is $75.78 against a market price of $189.19. Our read: 150% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Guidewire Software (GWRE) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE) is $75.78, built on a 9.6% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Guidewire Software stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $189.19. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Guidewire Software (GWRE) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE): Mullen John P, President, open-market sale on 2026-10-20. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Stocks below our fair value instead
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.
Save this valuation
GWRE goes on your watchlist, where its valuation is re-run as new filings land — so you read the current number, not the one from today.