GXO · Intrinsic value
Is GXO Logistics, Inc. (GXO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth's valuation lenses put GXO Logistics, Inc. (GXO) at $11.75 – $95.20, too broad a range to say where the delayed market price of $47.82 sits in it, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
What is GXO worth?
- Fair-value range
- $11.75 – $95.20
- Market price
- $47.82
- Gap to fair value
- —
- Verdict
- Too wide to call
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 23.2% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 4.1% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is GXO's TickerWorth Score?
A weaker business than most companies
Compared with Industrials companies in US
Its strongest point: looks cheap on the numbers. Its weakest: profitability is weak.
- Value · 72 of 100
Cheaper than 72% of Industrials companies in US
- Price vs worth · 44 of 100
- Quality · 14 of 100
More profitable than 14% of Industrials companies in US
- Financial health · 16 of 100
Financially stronger than 16% of Industrials companies in US
- Growth · 46 of 100
Growing faster than 46% of Industrials companies in US
- Momentum · 36 of 100
Outperformed 36% of Industrials companies in US over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
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Why GXO gets a range, not one number
At a recent price of $47.81, GXO Logistics, Inc. (GXO) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $11.75 and $95.20 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts GXO Logistics, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 8.5%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 76% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 23.2% annual revenue growth for GXO. Our base case instead compounds to about 4.1% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, GXO's modeled DCF value ranges from about $3.31 to $32.25 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what GXO Logistics, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of GXO's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind GXO's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueGXO Logistics, Inc. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001852244-26-000007): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 full year. | $13,178,000,000 |
| Base EBIT marginGXO Logistics, Inc. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001852244-26-000007): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 245,000,000 / revenue 13,178,000,000 = 1.86%, FY2025. | 1.9% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 4% → 4% → 4% → 4% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 4.7% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 1.55 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesGXO Logistics, Inc. FY2025 10-K (accession 0001852244-26-000007): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 116,303,000 shares, FY2025. | 116M |
| Market priceLast known price · as of 2026-10-19 20:14 UTC | $47.81 |
Change GXO's assumptions
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What does GXO Logistics, Inc. do?
What does it do?
GXO Logistics, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides logistics services worldwide. It provides warehousing and distribution, order fulfilment, e-commerce, reverse logistics, and other supply chain services. It operates in the Integrated Freight & Logistics industry (Industrials sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 150,000 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $13.2B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $3 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 3.0%), after a 15% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 1.0% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks stretched: carries heavy debt (2.0× equity), may struggle to cover its short-term bills (0.8× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at GXO filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelleher Patrick Michael | Chief Executive Officer | Shares withheld (tax) | $214,684.52 | Form 4 for Kelleher Patrick Michael (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Kelleher Patrick Michael | Chief Executive Officer | Option exercise | — | Form 4 for Kelleher Patrick Michael (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Bracken Laura L. | Interim CAO | Option exercise | — | Form 4 for Bracken Laura L. (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Bracken Laura L. | Interim CAO | Shares withheld (tax) | $37,822.20 | Form 4 for Bracken Laura L. (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Wismans Kyle | Director | Option exercise | — | Form 4 for Wismans Kyle (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Cooper Todd C | Director | Option exercise | — | Form 4 for Cooper Todd C (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is GXO's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put GXO Logistics, Inc. (GXO) between $11.75 and $95.20 per share, versus a market price of $47.81. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is GXO overvalued or undervalued?
At $47.81 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call GXO overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for GXO?
A WACC of 8.5% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is GXO Logistics stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for GXO Logistics, Inc. (GXO) is $11.75 – $95.20 against a market price of $47.82. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
GXO Logistics (GXO) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for GXO Logistics, Inc. (GXO) is $11.75 – $95.20, built on a 8.5% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into GXO Logistics stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 23.2% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 4.1% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $47.82. A model estimate, not investment advice.
GXO Logistics (GXO) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for GXO Logistics, Inc. (GXO): Kelleher Patrick Michael, Chief Executive Officer, shares withheld (tax) on 2026-08-20. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Other ways into the coverage
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.