What is HCA's intrinsic value?

TickerWorth's valuation lenses put HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) between $293.21 and $1,085 per share, versus a market price of $456.97. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.

Is HCA overvalued or undervalued?

At $456.97 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call HCA overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.

What discount rate is used for HCA?

A WACC of 8.7% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.

Is HCA Healthcare stock undervalued?

TickerWorth's fair-value range for HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) is $293.21 – $1,085.06 against a market price of $456.97. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.

HCA Healthcare (HCA) DCF valuation and fair value

Our fair-value range for HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) is $293.21 – $1,085.06, built on a 8.7% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.

What growth is priced into HCA Healthcare stock?

Today's price implies revenue growth of 9.9% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 3.7% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $456.97. A model estimate, not investment advice.

HCA Healthcare (HCA) insider trading

The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA): McAlevey Michael R, EVP & Chief Legal & Admin Off., other acquisition/disposition on 2026-08-26. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.

HCA · Intrinsic value

Is HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) overvalued or undervalued?

Name: HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) DCF intrinsic value
Creator: TickerWorth

As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth's valuation lenses put HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) at $293.21 – $1,085.06, too broad a range to say where the delayed market price of $456.97 sits in it, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.

Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made

Open full HCA analysis

What is HCA worth?

Backup data source

This price comes from our backup market-data feed.

Fair-value range: $293.21 – $1,085.06
Market price: $456.97
Gap to fair value: —
Verdict: Too wide to call

Price as of 19 Oct 2026, 13:54 UTC · Prices are delayed.Our valuation lenses disagree too widely on this company for us to publish a single number, so we publish the range instead. We do not call it over- or undervalued from a spread this wide.

Fair-value range against the delayed market price: Too wide to call.

Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 9.9% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 3.7% a year on average over the same horizon.

What is HCA's TickerWorth Score?

C53/100

Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses

Compared with Healthcare companies in US

Its strongest point: looks cheap on the numbers. Its weakest: balance sheet looks stretched.

Value · 79 of 100
Cheaper than 79% of Healthcare companies in US
Price vs worth · 82 of 100
Quality · 48 of 100
More profitable than 48% of Healthcare companies in US
Financial health · 9 of 100
Financially stronger than 9% of Healthcare companies in US
Growth · 36 of 100
Growing faster than 36% of Healthcare companies in US
Momentum · 44 of 100
Outperformed 44% of Healthcare companies in US over the past year

Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored 19 Oct 2026, 13:54 UTC

Get the Undervalued Company of the Week.

Where the numbers come from

Hand-researched model

What the modeller flagged

THE MODEL SITS WELL BELOW THE MARKET, AND THE DISAGREEMENT IS ABOUT THE DISCOUNT RATE AND THE LONG RUN, NOT ABOUT 2026. Year 1 is management's revised guidance to the dollar ($11,979M EBIT vs an $11,980M midpoint). To justify today's price you would need, one at a time: a WACC of ~7.45% instead of 8.70% (beta ~0.73 instead of 1.11), or perpetual growth of ~4.0% instead of 2.5%, or a flat operating margin of ~17.7% every year (above any year HCA has reported), or revenue growing ~9.9% a year for five years at the 14.5% end-margin.
TERMINAL VALUE IS ~75% OF ENTERPRISE VALUE (at the 75% line) and the implied exit multiple is ~8.1x final-year EBITDA, below the ~9.3-9.8x the market pays for HCA's whole enterprise today (counting the partners' stake at book or at market). Most of the gap to the price is that multiple: the market capitalizes HCA's cash flow at a rate this model's 8.70% WACC and 2.5% growth do not allow.
THE AUTOMATIC MODEL'S ~+150% GAP COULD NOT BE TRACED TO A SINGLE FILING ITEM. Even with NO deduction for the partners and NO debt at all, this model's enterprise value ($125.6B) is only ~$564 a share - so an automatic figure near ~$1,090 must come from its feed's cash-flow or discount-rate inputs rather than a missed balance-sheet claim. What the filings do show it would need to handle: ~$50B of debt, an ~$11B partner claim, negative book equity, and a 2026 that includes a ~$423M one-off.
MARGIN FADE IS A POLICY CALL. Years 3-5 cut the margin from 15.0% to 14.5% for the FBA's phase-down of grandfathered state-directed payments (from 2028) and provider-tax limits. HCA has not quantified the effect and says it is 'unable to predict the ultimate impact'. If HCA offsets it as it has offset past reimbursement pressure, a flat 15.31% gives $325.74.
BETA IS THE PUBLISHED 1.11, NOT A BOTTOM-UP 0.79. The bottom-up figure (Damodaran hospitals, relevered) would give $407.09 - close to today's price. The market is effectively pricing HCA at the lower beta.
THE NONCONTROLLING-INTEREST VALUE IS AN ESTIMATE. HCA discloses no fair value for it; ~$11.1B uses HCA's own forward P/E on the partners' after-tax-equivalent earnings. Book ($3.4B) would give $327.77.
NOT IN THE BRIDGE: $1,892M of net self-insured professional-liability reserves (accrued through EBIT, partly funded by $519M of insurance-subsidiary investments, also excluded) and ~$2.2B of operating leases (rent in EBIT). Including the reserves net of the investments as debt would lower the value by ~$6/share.
SBC of $401M in FY2025 ($171M in H1 2026) is expensed inside GAAP operating income, so no further deduction is taken; dilution is captured in the diluted share count.

Why HCA gets a range, not one number

At a recent price of $456.97, HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $293.21 and $1,085 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.

Read the full reasoning

The valuation discounts HCA Healthcare, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 8.7%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 75% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 9.9% annual revenue growth for HCA. Our base case instead compounds to about 3.7% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, HCA's modeled DCF value ranges from about $144.00 to $641.92 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what HCA Healthcare, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of HCA's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

Every input behind HCA's DCF

Input	Value	Source
Base-year revenueHCA Healthcare FY2025 10-K (accession 0001193125-26-044769, filed 2026-02-10): Revenues $75,600M for FY2025, +7.1% on FY2024's $70,603M (FY2023 $64,968M). UNCHANGED as the base; 2026 belongs in the forecast. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue $39,339M, +6.5% on H1 2025's $36,926M, BUT Q2 2026 includes ~$980M of Florida state-directed-payment revenue that relates to periods BEFORE 2026 (Oct 2024-Dec 2025), booked when CMS approved the program in the quarter (2Q release). Ex that catch-up H1 was +3.9%. TTM through 2026-06-30: $78,013M. Context: revenue from Medicaid supplemental and state-directed payment (SDP) programs was ~$6.2B in FY2025 (8.2% of revenue), up from $5.5B in 2024 and $4.4B in 2023 (10-K) - the line the 2025 Federal Budget Act starts phasing down from 2028.	$75,600,000,000	HCA Healthcare FY2025 10-K (accession 0001193125-26-044769, filed 2026-02-10): Revenues $75,600M for FY2025, +7.1% on FY2024's $70,603M (FY2023 $64,968M). UNCHANGED as the base; 2026 belongs in the forecast. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue $39,339M, +6.5% on H1 2025's $36,926M, BUT Q2 2026 includes ~$980M of Florida state-directed-payment revenue that relates to periods BEFORE 2026 (Oct 2024-Dec 2025), booked when CMS approved the program in the quarter (2Q release). Ex that catch-up H1 was +3.9%. TTM through 2026-06-30: $78,013M. Context: revenue from Medicaid supplemental and state-directed payment (SDP) programs was ~$6.2B in FY2025 (8.2% of revenue), up from $5.5B in 2024 and $4.4B in 2023 (10-K) - the line the 2025 Federal Budget Act starts phasing down from 2028.
Base EBIT marginHCA Healthcare FY2025 10-K (accession 0001193125-26-044769, filed 2026-02-10): Operating EBIT = income before taxes $9,832M + interest expense $2,248M + gains on sales of facilities (-$37M) = $12,043M; / $75,600M = 15.93%. Equals management's Adjusted EBITDA ($15,566M = $12,043M + D&A $3,523M) less D&A. FY2025 is the PEAK of the recent run: FY2024 14.97% ($10,570M), FY2023 14.85% ($9,649M) - 2025 was lifted by growing SDP revenue and exchange enrollment at its high. TWO THINGS THIS LINE CONTAINS: (1) 100% of the operating profit of the hospital partnerships HCA consolidates - the partners' share comes out below the line as net income attributable to noncontrolling interests ($998M in FY2025), which is why the bridge deducts them (see market.net_debt); (2) equity in earnings of affiliates ($78M), so equity-method stakes are valued here, not again in the bridge. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 EBIT = $4,781M + $1,183M - $9M = $5,955M, 15.1% of revenue, flattered by the ~$423M prior-period Florida benefit; ex that ~14.2% on ex-catch-up revenue. Base margin does not drive value: the forecast starts from Year 1.	15.9%	HCA Healthcare FY2025 10-K (accession 0001193125-26-044769, filed 2026-02-10): Operating EBIT = income before taxes $9,832M + interest expense $2,248M + gains on sales of facilities (-$37M) = $12,043M; / $75,600M = 15.93%. Equals management's Adjusted EBITDA ($15,566M = $12,043M + D&A $3,523M) less D&A. FY2025 is the PEAK of the recent run: FY2024 14.97% ($10,570M), FY2023 14.85% ($9,649M) - 2025 was lifted by growing SDP revenue and exchange enrollment at its high. TWO THINGS THIS LINE CONTAINS: (1) 100% of the operating profit of the hospital partnerships HCA consolidates - the partners' share comes out below the line as net income attributable to noncontrolling interests ($998M in FY2025), which is why the bridge deducts them (see market.net_debt); (2) equity in earnings of affiliates ($78M), so equity-method stakes are valued here, not again in the bridge. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 EBIT = $4,781M + $1,183M - $9M = $5,955M, 15.1% of revenue, flattered by the ~$423M prior-period Florida benefit; ex that ~14.2% on ex-catch-up revenue. Base margin does not drive value: the forecast starts from Year 1.
Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast	4% → 4% → 4% → 4% → 4%	ESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rateUS 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. Shared by every model in this tracker.	5.2%	US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. Shared by every model in this tracker.
Betayfinance published beta (5Y monthly), read 2026-10-05: Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.11, used AS PUBLISHED. Cost of equity 5.24% + 1.11 x 5.0% = 10.79%, ~4.5 points above HCA's ~6.3% marginal cost of debt - a sensible premium for equity under ~$50B of debt, so there is no case to normalize UP. A bottom-up beta would be LOWER: Damodaran's Hospitals/Healthcare Facilities unlevered beta 0.56 (January 2026, the figure the DVA model uses) relevered at HCA's market debt/equity of 0.53 and 23.5% tax = 0.79, which would give $407.09. Not used: the published figure reflects HCA's actual policy and payer-mix exposure (2026 showed both), and a 0.79 would assume them away. This is the single biggest lever on the value; each 0.1 of beta is worth ~$35/share.	1.11	yfinance published beta (5Y monthly), read 2026-10-05: Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.11, used AS PUBLISHED. Cost of equity 5.24% + 1.11 x 5.0% = 10.79%, ~4.5 points above HCA's ~6.3% marginal cost of debt - a sensible premium for equity under ~$50B of debt, so there is no case to normalize UP. A bottom-up beta would be LOWER: Damodaran's Hospitals/Healthcare Facilities unlevered beta 0.56 (January 2026, the figure the DVA model uses) relevered at HCA's market debt/equity of 0.53 and 23.5% tax = 0.79, which would give $407.09. Not used: the published figure reflects HCA's actual policy and payer-mix exposure (2026 showed both), and a 0.79 would assume them away. This is the single biggest lever on the value; each 0.1 of beta is worth ~$35/share.
Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. For HCA it is arguably modest - admissions grow ~2% a year in its Sun Belt markets and pricing adds more - but Medicaid funding is structurally shrinking under the FBA and the commercial mix is under pressure, so 2.5% is not unreasonable. 3.0% gives $332.40; 2.0% gives $259.87. Must remain < WACC of 8.70%.	2.5%	ESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. For HCA it is arguably modest - admissions grow ~2% a year in its Sun Belt markets and pricing adds more - but Medicaid funding is structurally shrinking under the FBA and the commercial mix is under pressure, so 2.5% is not unreasonable. 3.0% gives $332.40; 2.0% gives $259.87. Must remain < WACC of 8.70%.
Diluted sharesHCA Healthcare 2Q 2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001193125-26-315151, filed 2026-07-24); HCA Healthcare Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0001193125-26-321077, filed 2026-07-28): Q2 2026 weighted-average shares used in diluted EPS: 222.828M. The count falls fast - FY2024 261.8M, FY2025 239.5M, Q2 2026 222.8M - because HCA spent $10.1B on buybacks in FY2025 and $3.6B in H1 2026 (4.752M shares for $2,064M in Q2 alone), with $7.21B of authorization left at 2026-06-30. Shares OUTSTANDING were already 216.5M at 2026-07-24, and the 2026 guidance assumes 219.5M diluted for the full year. Using ~216.5M would lift the value to $301.78. The 10-Q weighted diluted count is used per house method - mildly conservative; it will step down at Q3.	223M	HCA Healthcare 2Q 2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001193125-26-315151, filed 2026-07-24); HCA Healthcare Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0001193125-26-321077, filed 2026-07-28): Q2 2026 weighted-average shares used in diluted EPS: 222.828M. The count falls fast - FY2024 261.8M, FY2025 239.5M, Q2 2026 222.8M - because HCA spent $10.1B on buybacks in FY2025 and $3.6B in H1 2026 (4.752M shares for $2,064M in Q2 alone), with $7.21B of authorization left at 2026-06-30. Shares OUTSTANDING were already 216.5M at 2026-07-24, and the 2026 guidance assumes 219.5M diluted for the full year. Using ~216.5M would lift the value to $301.78. The 10-Q weighted diluted count is used per house method - mildly conservative; it will step down at Q3.
Market priceBackup price feed · as of 2026-10-19 13:54 UTC	$456.97	Backup price feed · as of 2026-10-19 13:54 UTC

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What does HCA Healthcare, Inc. do?

What does it do?

HCA Healthcare, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides health care services in the United States. The company owns, manages, and operates hospitals, ASCs, freestanding emergency care facilities, urgent care facilities, walk-in clinics, diagnostic and imaging centers, radiation and oncology therapy centers, as well as rehabilitation and physical therapy centers, physician practices, home health agencies, hospices, outpatient physical therapy providers, home and community-based services providers, and various other facilities. It operates in the Medical Care Facilities industry (Healthcare sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 230,000 people.

How does it make money?

The business turns $78.0B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $15 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 15.2%), after a 43% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 8.8% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.

Is it financially healthy?

Financially it looks stretched: may struggle to cover its short-term bills (1.0× current ratio), and is currently profitable.

Who at HCA filed insider trades?

Recent insider filings for HCA Healthcare, Inc.
Date	Insider	Relationship	What happened	Value	Filing
26 Aug 2026	McAlevey Michael R	EVP & Chief Legal & Admin Off.	Other acquisition/disposition	$3,332,901.00	Form 4 for McAlevey Michael R (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
7 May 2026	Marks Mike A	EVP and CFO	Gift	—	Form 4 for Marks Mike A (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
7 May 2026	Marks Mike A	EVP and CFO	Gift	—	Form 4 for Marks Mike A (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
28 Apr 2026	Frist William R	Director, 10% owner	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for Frist William R (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
28 Apr 2026	FRIST THOMAS F III	Director, 10% owner	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for FRIST THOMAS F III (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
28 Apr 2026	Smith Andrea B	Director	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for Smith Andrea B (opens sec.gov in a new tab)

A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans

Common questions

What is HCA's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) between $293.21 and $1,085 per share, versus a market price of $456.97. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is HCA overvalued or undervalued?
At $456.97 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call HCA overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for HCA?
A WACC of 8.7% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is HCA Healthcare stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) is $293.21 – $1,085.06 against a market price of $456.97. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
HCA Healthcare (HCA) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) is $293.21 – $1,085.06, built on a 8.7% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into HCA Healthcare stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 9.9% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 3.7% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $456.97. A model estimate, not investment advice.
HCA Healthcare (HCA) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA): McAlevey Michael R, EVP & Chief Legal & Admin Off., other acquisition/disposition on 2026-08-26. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.