HRL · Intrinsic value
Is Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) overvalued or undervalued?
Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) trades at the delayed market price of $20.40 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of −3.4% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is $29.68 a share (priced within our range of $17.21 – $41.76). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is HRL fairly valued?
- Fair value
- $29.68
- Market price
- $20.40
- Upside to fair value
- +45.5%
- Verdict
- Priced within our range of $17.21 – $41.76
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of −3.4% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 2.3% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is HRL's TickerWorth Score?
Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses
Compared with Consumer Defensive companies in US
Its strongest point: trades below our estimate of what it's worth. Its weakest: profitability is weak.
- Value · 66 of 100
Cheaper than 66% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
- Price vs worth · 86 of 100
- Quality · 22 of 100
More profitable than 22% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
- Financial health · 82 of 100
Financially stronger than 82% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
- Growth · 38 of 100
Growing faster than 38% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
- Momentum · 11 of 100
Outperformed 11% of Consumer Defensive companies in US over the past year
Confidence: High confidence · Scored
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HRL DCF valuation, input by input
TickerWorth's fair value for Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) is $29.68 a share, against the delayed market price of $20.40 (priced within our range of $17.21 – $41.76). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values HRL at about $26.00 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts Hormel Foods Corporation's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 6.8%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 84% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly -3.4% annual revenue growth for HRL. Our base case instead compounds to about 2.3% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in slower growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, HRL's modeled DCF value ranges from about $15.17 to $67.27 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Hormel Foods Corporation would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of HRL's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind HRL's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueHORMEL FOODS CORPORATION FY2025 10-K (accession 0000048465-25-000059): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax, FY2025 full year. | $12,106,160,000 |
| Base EBIT marginHORMEL FOODS CORPORATION FY2025 10-K (accession 0000048465-25-000059): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 718,603,000 / revenue 12,106,160,000 = 5.94%, FY2025. | 5.9% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 1% → 1% → 2% → 3% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.2% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 0.40 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesHORMEL FOODS CORPORATION FY2025 10-K (accession 0000048465-25-000059): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 550,496,000 shares, FY2025. | 550M |
| Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:16 UTC | $20.40 |
Change HRL's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
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What does Hormel Foods Corporation do?
What does it do?
Hormel Foods Corporation develops, processes, and distributes various meat, nut, and other food products to foodservice, convenience stores, and commercial customers in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Retail, Foodservice, and International. It operates in the Packaged Foods industry (Consumer Defensive sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 20,000 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $12.1B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $9 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 8.6%), after a 16% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 2.8% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks mixed: carries modest debt (0.4× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (1.9× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at HRL filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bhumbla Ash | Executive VP & CFO | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for Bhumbla Ash (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Newlands William A | Director | Open-market buy | $201,000.00 | Form 4 for Newlands William A (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Myers Kevin L | SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT | Shares withheld (tax) | $17,496.00 | Form 4 for Myers Kevin L (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Policinski Christopher J. | Director | Grant / award | $56,437.58 | Form 4 for Policinski Christopher J. (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Schoneman Debbra L. | Director | Grant / award | $30,187.56 | Form 4 for Schoneman Debbra L. (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| White Steven Andrew | Director | Grant / award | $60,374.93 | Form 4 for White Steven Andrew (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is HRL's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) is $29.68 per share, versus a market price of $20.40 (priced within our range of $17.21 – $41.76).
Is HRL overvalued or undervalued?
Priced within our range of $17.21 – $41.76 at $20.40. We don't call HRL overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for HRL?
A WACC of 6.8% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Hormel Foods stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) is $29.68 against a market price of $20.40. Our read: Priced within our range of $17.21 – $41.76. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Hormel Foods (HRL) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) is $29.68, built on a 6.8% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Hormel Foods stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of −3.4% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 2.3% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $20.40. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Hormel Foods (HRL) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL): Bhumbla Ash, Executive VP & CFO, grant / award on 2026-10-13. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.