HWM · Intrinsic value
Is Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) overvalued or undervalued?
Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) trades at the delayed market price of $221.24 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. TickerWorth's fair value is $73.52 a share (201% above fair value), as of Oct 19, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is HWM overvalued?
- Fair value
- $73.52
- Market price
- $221.24
- Downside to fair value
- 66.8%
- Verdict
- 201% above fair value
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast.
What is HWM's TickerWorth Score?
Expensive vs our estimate — the business scores well
Compared with Industrials companies in US
Its strongest point: a profitable, high-quality business. Its weakest: looks expensive on the numbers.
- Value · 12 of 100
Cheaper than 12% of Industrials companies in US
- Price vs worth · 0 of 100
- Quality · 81 of 100
More profitable than 81% of Industrials companies in US
- Financial health · 52 of 100
Financially stronger than 52% of Industrials companies in US
- Growth · 70 of 100
Growing faster than 70% of Industrials companies in US
- Momentum · 35 of 100
Outperformed 35% of Industrials companies in US over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
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HWM DCF valuation: what the price assumes
At a recent price of $221.24, Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) trades 201% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $73.52 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices HWM overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -66.8% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
Read the full reasoning
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values HWM at about $44.54 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts Howmet Aerospace Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.5%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 68% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — HWM would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against about 8.7% a year compounded in our base case. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, HWM's modeled DCF value ranges from about $33.95 to $64.49 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Howmet Aerospace Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of HWM's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind HWM's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueHOWMET AEROSPACE INC. FY2025 10-K (accession 0000004281-26-000012): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 full year. | $8,252,000,000 |
| Base EBIT marginHOWMET AEROSPACE INC. FY2025 10-K (accession 0000004281-26-000012): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 2,046,000,000 / revenue 8,252,000,000 = 24.79%, FY2025. | 24.8% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 13% → 11% → 9% → 6% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.1% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 1.20 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesHOWMET AEROSPACE INC. FY2025 10-K (accession 0000004281-26-000012): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 406,000,000 shares, FY2025. | 406M |
| Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 16:20 UTC | $221.24 |
Change HWM's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does Howmet Aerospace Inc. do?
What does it do?
Howmet Aerospace Inc. provides advanced engineered solutions for the aerospace and transportation industries in the United States, Japan, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Italy, Canada, Poland, China, and internationally. It operates in the Aerospace & Defense industry (Industrials sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 25,430 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $9.1B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $29 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 28.5%), after a 36% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 20.5% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks mixed: carries modest debt (0.8× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (1.8× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
HWM insider trading
We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Howmet Aerospace Inc.. Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.
Common questions
What is HWM's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) is $73.52 per share, versus a market price of $221.24 (201% above fair value).
Is HWM overvalued or undervalued?
On our blended fair value HWM looks overvalued vs fair value at $221.24. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for HWM?
A WACC of 10.5% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Howmet Aerospace stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) is $73.52 against a market price of $221.24. Our read: 201% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Howmet Aerospace (HWM) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) is $73.52, built on a 10.5% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Howmet Aerospace stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of more than 25%/yr. Above about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative. It solves for revenue growth alone — holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed — so a price well above our cash-flow model's value has nowhere to go but growth, and the solver returns a rate the model can't reconcile. Read it as "the price implies growth we can't justify", not as a forecast. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $221.24. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Howmet Aerospace (HWM) insider trading
We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM). Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.
Stocks below our fair value instead
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.