LONN.SW · Intrinsic value
Is Lonza Group AG (LONN.SW) overvalued or undervalued?
Lonza Group AG (LONN.SW) trades at the delayed market price of CHF 613.20 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of 20.9% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is CHF 379.39 a share (62% above fair value), as of Oct 19, 2026. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is LONN.SW overvalued?
- Fair value
- CHF 379.39
- Market price
- CHF 613.20
- Downside to fair value
- 38.1%
- Verdict
- 62% above fair value
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 20.9% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 7.6% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is LONN.SW's TickerWorth Score?
Expensive vs our estimate — the business scores well
Compared with Healthcare companies in Europe
Its strongest point: recent price trend has been strong. Its weakest: looks expensive on the numbers.
- Value · 9 of 100
Cheaper than 9% of Healthcare companies in Europe
- Price vs worth · 20 of 100
- Quality · 48 of 100
More profitable than 48% of Healthcare companies in Europe
- Financial health · 57 of 100
Financially stronger than 57% of Healthcare companies in Europe
- Growth · 73 of 100
Growing faster than 73% of Healthcare companies in Europe
- Momentum · 87 of 100
Outperformed 87% of Healthcare companies in Europe over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
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LONN.SW DCF valuation: what the price assumes
At a recent price of 613.20, Lonza Group AG (LONN.SW) trades 62% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of 379.39 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices LONN.SW overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -38.1% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
Read the full reasoning
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values LONN.SW at about 317.49 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts Lonza Group AG's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 8.8%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 75% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 20.9% annual revenue growth for LONN.SW. Our base case instead compounds to about 7.6% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, LONN.SW's modeled DCF value ranges from about 219.57 to 542.78 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Lonza Group AG would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of LONN.SW's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind LONN.SW's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueLive feed — totalRevenue (TTM) | 6,871,000,000 |
| Base EBIT marginComputed — trailing operatingMargins, held roughly flat | 23.4% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 11% → 9% → 8% → 6% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.3% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 0.81 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesLive feed — sharesOutstanding | 70M |
| Market priceLast known price · as of 2026-10-19 21:02 UTC | 613.20 |
Change LONN.SW's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does Lonza Group AG do?
What does it do?
Lonza Group AG, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a contract development and manufacturing organization for pharma and biotech companies in Europe, North and Central America, Latin America, Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and internationally. It operates through Integrated Biologics; Advanced Synthesis; and Specialized Modalities segments. It operates in the Diagnostics & Research industry (Healthcare sector), headquartered in Switzerland. The company employs roughly 20,141 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns 6.9B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $23 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 23.4%), after a 37% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, -1.6% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks mixed: carries modest debt (0.5× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (1.7× current ratio), and is currently lossmaking.
LONN.SW insider trading
Insider filings are available for US-listed companies only.
Common questions
What is LONN.SW's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for Lonza Group AG (LONN.SW) is 379.39 per share, versus a market price of 613.20 (62% above fair value).
Is LONN.SW overvalued or undervalued?
On our blended fair value LONN.SW looks overvalued vs fair value at 613.20. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for LONN.SW?
A WACC of 8.8% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Lonza Group stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for Lonza Group AG (LONN.SW) is CHF 379.39 against a market price of CHF 613.20. Our read: 62% above fair value. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Lonza Group (LONN.SW) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for Lonza Group AG (LONN.SW) is CHF 379.39, built on a 8.8% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Lonza Group stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 20.9% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 7.6% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of CHF 613.20. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Lonza Group (LONN.SW) insider trading
We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Lonza Group AG (LONN.SW). Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.
Stocks below our fair value instead
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.