What is LW's intrinsic value?

TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) between $20.13 and $94.13 per share, versus a market price of $53.59. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.

Is LW overvalued or undervalued?

At $53.59 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call LW overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.

What discount rate is used for LW?

A WACC of 8.3% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.

Is Lamb Weston stock undervalued?

TickerWorth's fair-value range for Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) is $20.13 – $94.13 against a market price of $53.59. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.

Lamb Weston (LW) DCF valuation and fair value

Our fair-value range for Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) is $20.13 – $94.13, built on a 8.3% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.

What growth is priced into Lamb Weston stock?

no growth rate up to 300%/yr justifies the price under these economics This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $53.59. A model estimate, not investment advice.

Lamb Weston (LW) insider trading

The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW): Prestage Norman, Director, grant / award on 2026-10-08. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.

LW · Intrinsic value

Is Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) overvalued or undervalued?

Name: Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) DCF intrinsic value
Creator: TickerWorth

As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) at $20.13 – $94.13, too broad a range to say where the delayed market price of $53.59 sits in it, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.

Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made

Open full LW analysis

What is LW worth?

Fair-value range: $20.13 – $94.13
Market price: $53.59
Gap to fair value: —
Verdict: Too wide to call

Price as of 19 Oct 2026, 13:15 UTC · Prices are delayed.Our valuation lenses disagree too widely on this company for us to publish a single number, so we publish the range instead. We do not call it over- or undervalued from a spread this wide.

Fair-value range against the delayed market price: Too wide to call.

Reverse DCF: no growth rate up to 300%/yr justifies the price under these economics

What is LW's TickerWorth Score?

D42/100

Scores lower than most companies we compare it with

Compared with Consumer Defensive companies in US

Its strongest point: recent price trend has been strong. Its weakest: profitability is weak.

Value · 53 of 100
Cheaper than 53% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
Price vs worth · 37 of 100
Quality · 32 of 100
More profitable than 32% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
Financial health · 33 of 100
Financially stronger than 33% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
Growth · 39 of 100
Growing faster than 39% of Consumer Defensive companies in US
Momentum · 64 of 100
Outperformed 64% of Consumer Defensive companies in US over the past year

Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored 19 Oct 2026, 13:15 UTC

Get the Undervalued Company of the Week.

Where the numbers come from

Hand-researched model

What the modeller flagged

TERMINAL VALUE IS ~77% OF ENTERPRISE VALUE - above the 75% line. Most of the answer is a bet on the FY2031 margin and the discount rate; the WACC x terminal-growth grid spans roughly $19 to $85. Read the point estimate as the middle of a wide range.
BETA NORMALIZED UP from a published 0.474 to 1.0, and cost of debt uses the ~7.0% marginal BB+ rate rather than the ~4.6% average. Both lower the value. At the published beta this same model gives ~$63/share; at 0.8, ~$45.50.
THE MARGIN PATH IS THE SOFTEST INPUT. 12.0% by FY2031 is a partial recovery from an industry capacity glut, well below the 16-18% of FY2017-19 and FY2023-24. Holding the guided FY2027 margin (10.3%) flat gives ~$28.50; a full return to 16% gives ~$59.
BUILT BEFORE Q1 FY2027. Results are due the morning of 2026-10-06; analysts cut targets in late September on a heat-damaged 2026 European potato crop, a risk to FY2027 procurement costs and to the guidance this model's Year 1 uses.
BASE YEAR RESTATED TO 52 WEEKS ($6,485.2M, not the reported $6,612.3M) to match how FY2027 is guided. Using the reported base with the guided growth would give ~$39 and would wrongly fire the cyclical range-only flag on a calendar effect.
BASE AND FORECAST USE A HOUSE MARGIN DEFINITION (GAAP excluding only non-cash restructuring write-downs) that is neither Lamb Weston's GAAP figure (8.9% in FY2026, 53 weeks) nor its adjusted figure (11.2%, which adds back SBC and all restructuring). The derivation is in the base_year.ebit_margin and forecast notes.
SBC (~$46M a year, ~0.7% of sales) is expensed inside operating income; dilution is carried by the diluted share count.

Why LW gets a range, not one number

At a recent price of $53.59, Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $20.13 and $94.13 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.

Read the full reasoning

The valuation discounts Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 8.3%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 77% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, LW's modeled DCF value ranges from about $19.07 to $84.61 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of LW's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

Every input behind LW's DCF

Input	Value	Source
Base-year revenueLamb Weston Q4/FY2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001679273-26-000024, filed 2026-07-24); ties to FY2026 10-K (accession 0001679273-26-000026): FY2026 reported net sales $6,612.3M (+2% on FY2025's $6,451.3M: volume +7%, price/mix -6%, FX +1%) LESS the $127.1M the company itself attributes to the 53rd week = $6,485.2M, the 52-week figure. FIFTY-THREE-WEEK TRAP: management guides FY2027 sales growth of '0.0% to 1.0%' against this 52-week figure ('Fiscal 2026 (52-week adjusted) $6.5 billion'). Using the reported $6,612M as the base would turn a guided 0-1% INCREASE into a fake ~1.4% decline and mechanically fire the site's cyclical range-only flag for a calendar artefact, not a downturn. The extra week is a one-off timing item, so it is removed from the base rather than modeled as a decline. CROSS-CHECK: Q4 FY2026 (14 weeks) sales $1,770.1M, $1,615.3M excluding FX and the extra week. Segment split FY2026: North America $4,395.2M (66%), International $2,217.1M (34%).	$6,485,200,000	Lamb Weston Q4/FY2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001679273-26-000024, filed 2026-07-24); ties to FY2026 10-K (accession 0001679273-26-000026): FY2026 reported net sales $6,612.3M (+2% on FY2025's $6,451.3M: volume +7%, price/mix -6%, FX +1%) LESS the $127.1M the company itself attributes to the 53rd week = $6,485.2M, the 52-week figure. FIFTY-THREE-WEEK TRAP: management guides FY2027 sales growth of '0.0% to 1.0%' against this 52-week figure ('Fiscal 2026 (52-week adjusted) $6.5 billion'). Using the reported $6,612M as the base would turn a guided 0-1% INCREASE into a fake ~1.4% decline and mechanically fire the site's cyclical range-only flag for a calendar artefact, not a downturn. The extra week is a one-off timing item, so it is removed from the base rather than modeled as a decline. CROSS-CHECK: Q4 FY2026 (14 weeks) sales $1,770.1M, $1,615.3M excluding FX and the extra week. Segment split FY2026: North America $4,395.2M (66%), International $2,217.1M (34%).
Base EBIT marginLamb Weston Q4/FY2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001679273-26-000024, filed 2026-07-24) + FY2026 10-K Note 4 (Cost Savings Program and Restructuring): HOUSE MEASURE = GAAP income from operations EXCLUDING ONLY NON-CASH restructuring write-downs (the equivalent of impairments). FY2026 GAAP operating income $591.1M (8.94%) + $48.3M of the $111.6M restructuring charges that the 10-K (Note 4) says were non-cash = $639.4M; less the 53rd week's contribution (adjusted EBITDA $28.9M per the release, less roughly one week of D&A ~$7.5M = ~$21.4M) = ~$618M / $6,485.2M = 9.5%. LEFT IN as real costs: the $63.3M of CASH restructuring (severance, consultants, contracted potatoes), stock-based compensation ($46.2M) and the $14.2M pension settlement. Lamb Weston's own 'adjusted income from operations' was $738.8M (11.2%) but it ADDS BACK stock-based compensation as well as all restructuring, so this base deliberately sits below it. CONTEXT (XBRL): GAAP operating margin was 16.4-17.8% in FY2017-FY2019, 10.8-14.7% in FY2020-FY2022 (pandemic, then cost inflation), 16.5% in FY2023-FY2024, then 10.3% in FY2025 and 8.9% in FY2026 as industry capacity outran demand. The base margin only feeds the cyclical-fade check; cash flows run off the forecast path.	9.5%	Lamb Weston Q4/FY2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001679273-26-000024, filed 2026-07-24) + FY2026 10-K Note 4 (Cost Savings Program and Restructuring): HOUSE MEASURE = GAAP income from operations EXCLUDING ONLY NON-CASH restructuring write-downs (the equivalent of impairments). FY2026 GAAP operating income $591.1M (8.94%) + $48.3M of the $111.6M restructuring charges that the 10-K (Note 4) says were non-cash = $639.4M; less the 53rd week's contribution (adjusted EBITDA $28.9M per the release, less roughly one week of D&A ~$7.5M = ~$21.4M) = ~$618M / $6,485.2M = 9.5%. LEFT IN as real costs: the $63.3M of CASH restructuring (severance, consultants, contracted potatoes), stock-based compensation ($46.2M) and the $14.2M pension settlement. Lamb Weston's own 'adjusted income from operations' was $738.8M (11.2%) but it ADDS BACK stock-based compensation as well as all restructuring, so this base deliberately sits below it. CONTEXT (XBRL): GAAP operating margin was 16.4-17.8% in FY2017-FY2019, 10.8-14.7% in FY2020-FY2022 (pandemic, then cost inflation), 16.5% in FY2023-FY2024, then 10.3% in FY2025 and 8.9% in FY2026 as industry capacity outran demand. The base margin only feeds the cyclical-fade check; cash flows run off the forecast path.
Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast	0% → 2% → 3% → 3% → 3%	ESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rateUS 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation; program-wide rate shared by every researched model.	5.2%	US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation; program-wide rate shared by every researched model.
BetaESTIMATEAssumption — normalized estimate (published 5Y-monthly beta via yfinance): Published 5Y-monthly beta is 0.474 (yfinance 2026-10-06). NORMALIZED UP to 1.0 - CONSERVATIVE: it raises WACC and LOWERS the value. Reason: at 0.474 the cost of equity is 7.6%, only ~0.6pp above the ~7.0% Lamb Weston would pay on new BB+ debt; equity junior to sub-investment-grade bonds cannot plausibly be that cheap. Bond-yield-plus-premium cross-check: ~7.0% + the conventional 3-4pp = 10-11%; beta 1.0 gives 10.24%, the low end. A low trailing beta also says little about a stock that fell from ~$107 (July 2023, dividend-adjusted) to the low 40s on company-specific margin collapse, and that S&P moved from the S&P 500 to the S&P 600 in March 2026 (10-K Item 5). Sizing: the published 0.474 gives ~$63/share; 0.8 ~$45.50; 1.2 ~$31.	1.00	ESTIMATEAssumption — normalized estimate (published 5Y-monthly beta via yfinance): Published 5Y-monthly beta is 0.474 (yfinance 2026-10-06). NORMALIZED UP to 1.0 - CONSERVATIVE: it raises WACC and LOWERS the value. Reason: at 0.474 the cost of equity is 7.6%, only ~0.6pp above the ~7.0% Lamb Weston would pay on new BB+ debt; equity junior to sub-investment-grade bonds cannot plausibly be that cheap. Bond-yield-plus-premium cross-check: ~7.0% + the conventional 3-4pp = 10-11%; beta 1.0 gives 10.24%, the low end. A low trailing beta also says little about a stock that fell from ~$107 (July 2023, dividend-adjusted) to the low 40s on company-specific margin collapse, and that S&P moved from the S&P 500 to the S&P 600 in March 2026 (10-K Item 5). Sizing: the published 0.474 gives ~$63/share; 0.8 ~$45.50; 1.2 ~$31.
Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP). Frozen potatoes are a mature, slowly growing category (the 10-K assumes flat global restaurant traffic for FY2027); 2.5% assumes volume roughly with population plus food inflation. Must remain < WACC of 8.25%. At 2.0% the value falls ~$4.30/share.	2.5%	ESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP). Frozen potatoes are a mature, slowly growing category (the 10-K assumes flat global restaurant traffic for FY2027); 2.5% assumes volume roughly with population plus food inflation. Must remain < WACC of 8.25%. At 2.0% the value falls ~$4.30/share.
Diluted sharesLamb Weston Q4/FY2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001679273-26-000024, filed 2026-07-24), Consolidated Statements of Earnings: Q4 FY2026 (14 weeks to 2026-05-31) weighted-average diluted shares 138.0M (full year 139.1M). Outstanding: 137,455,441 at 2026-05-31 (10-K); the 2026-09-16 annual-meeting 8-K counts 115,548,380 shares represented as ~84.0% of outstanding, i.e. ~137.6M. FY2027 guidance: 'Diluted outstanding common shares in the range of 137.5 million to 139.0 million'. ~$245M of buyback authorization remains.	138M	Lamb Weston Q4/FY2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001679273-26-000024, filed 2026-07-24), Consolidated Statements of Earnings: Q4 FY2026 (14 weeks to 2026-05-31) weighted-average diluted shares 138.0M (full year 139.1M). Outstanding: 137,455,441 at 2026-05-31 (10-K); the 2026-09-16 annual-meeting 8-K counts 115,548,380 shares represented as ~84.0% of outstanding, i.e. ~137.6M. FY2027 guidance: 'Diluted outstanding common shares in the range of 137.5 million to 139.0 million'. ~$245M of buyback authorization remains.
Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:15 UTC	$53.59	Delayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:15 UTC

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What does Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. do?

What does it do?

Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. engages in the production, distribution, and marketing of frozen potato products in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally. It operates in the Packaged Foods industry (Consumer Defensive sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 10,000 people.

How does it make money?

The business turns $6.6B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $9 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 9.5%), after a 20% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 3.8% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.

Is it financially healthy?

Financially it looks stretched: carries heavy debt (2.2× equity), can just cover its short-term bills (1.5× current ratio), and is currently profitable.

Who at LW filed insider trades?

Recent insider filings for Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.
Date	Insider	Relationship	What happened	Value	Filing
8 Oct 2026	Prestage Norman	Director	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for Prestage Norman (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
8 Oct 2026	Moddelmog Hala G	Director	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for Moddelmog Hala G (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
8 Oct 2026	MCLEVISH TIMOTHY R	Director	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for MCLEVISH TIMOTHY R (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
8 Oct 2026	Kurzius Lawrence Erik	Director	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for Kurzius Lawrence Erik (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
8 Oct 2026	Kimmelshue Ruth	Director	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for Kimmelshue Ruth (opens sec.gov in a new tab)
8 Oct 2026	Hawaux Andre J	Director	Grant / award	—	Form 4 for Hawaux Andre J (opens sec.gov in a new tab)

A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans

Common questions

What is LW's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) between $20.13 and $94.13 per share, versus a market price of $53.59. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is LW overvalued or undervalued?
At $53.59 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call LW overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for LW?
A WACC of 8.3% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Lamb Weston stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) is $20.13 – $94.13 against a market price of $53.59. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Lamb Weston (LW) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) is $20.13 – $94.13, built on a 8.3% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Lamb Weston stock?
no growth rate up to 300%/yr justifies the price under these economics This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $53.59. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Lamb Weston (LW) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW): Prestage Norman, Director, grant / award on 2026-10-08. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.