MGY · Intrinsic value
Is Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) at $21.65 – $72.21, too broad a range to say where the delayed market price of $25.35 sits in it, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
What is MGY worth?
- Fair-value range
- $21.65 – $72.21
- Market price
- $25.35
- Gap to fair value
- —
- Verdict
- Too wide to call
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of −5.3% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 16.6% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is MGY's TickerWorth Score?
Scores higher than almost every company we compare it with
Compared with Energy companies in US
Its strongest point: trades below our estimate of what it's worth. Its weakest: recent price trend has been weak.
- Value · 50 of 100
Cheaper than 50% of Energy companies in US
- Price vs worth · 100 of 100
- Quality · 84 of 100
More profitable than 84% of Energy companies in US
- Financial health · 87 of 100
Financially stronger than 87% of Energy companies in US
- Growth · 62 of 100
Growing faster than 62% of Energy companies in US
- Momentum · 14 of 100
Outperformed 14% of Energy companies in US over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
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Why MGY gets a range, not one number
At a recent price of $25.35, Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $21.65 and $72.21 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.9%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 81% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly -5.3% annual revenue growth for MGY. Our base case instead compounds to about 16.6% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in slower growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, MGY's modeled DCF value ranges from about $49.89 to $133.17 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of MGY's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind MGY's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueMagnolia Oil & Gas Corp FY2025 10-K (accession 0001698990-26-000005): us-gaap:Revenues, FY2025 full year. | $1,311,850,000 |
| Base EBIT marginMagnolia Oil & Gas Corp FY2025 10-K (accession 0001698990-26-000005): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 439,181,000 / revenue 1,311,845,000 = 33.48%, FY2025. | 33.5% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 30% → 24% → 17% → 10% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 4.8% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 0.70 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesMagnolia Oil & Gas Corp FY2025 10-K (accession 0001698990-26-000005): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 185,593,000 shares, FY2025. | 186M |
| Market priceBackup price feed · as of 2026-10-19 12:31 UTC | $25.35 |
Change MGY's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
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What does Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation do?
What does it do?
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, development, exploration, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the United States. The company's properties are located primarily in Karnes County and the Giddings area in South Texas comprising the Eagle Ford Shale and the Austin Chalk formation. It operates in the Oil & Gas E&P industry (Energy sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 262 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $1.5B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $51 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 50.7%), after a 82% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 28.8% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks solid: carries modest debt (0.2× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (1.6× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at MGY filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corales Brian | SVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for Corales Brian (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Corales Brian | SVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER | Shares withheld (tax) | $118,702.52 | Form 4 for Corales Brian (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Yang Timothy D. | EVP, CHIEF LEGAL & COMM & SEC | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for Yang Timothy D. (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Yang Timothy D. | EVP, CHIEF LEGAL & COMM & SEC | Shares withheld (tax) | $130,379.80 | Form 4 for Yang Timothy D. (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Stavros Christopher G | Director, CEO & CHAIRMAN | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for Stavros Christopher G (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Stavros Christopher G | Director, CEO & CHAIRMAN | Shares withheld (tax) | $243,812.70 | Form 4 for Stavros Christopher G (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is MGY's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) between $21.65 and $72.21 per share, versus a market price of $25.35. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is MGY overvalued or undervalued?
At $25.35 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call MGY overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for MGY?
A WACC of 7.9% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Magnolia Oil & Gas stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) is $21.65 – $72.21 against a market price of $25.35. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) is $21.65 – $72.21, built on a 7.9% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Magnolia Oil & Gas stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of −5.3% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 16.6% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $25.35. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY): Corales Brian, SVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER, grant / award on 2026-09-24. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Other ways into the coverage
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.