Is Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) overvalued or undervalued?

At a recent price of $27.38, Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) trades 54% below TickerWorth's blended fair value of $42.07 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices MGY undervalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits above the market, an implied +53.7% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.

One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values MGY at about $71.65 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.

The valuation discounts Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.9%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 81% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly -5.0% annual revenue growth for MGY. Our base case instead assumes about 17.0% average growth over the forecast, so the market is pricing in slower growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, MGY's modeled DCF value ranges from about $49.62 to $131.32 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of MGY's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.