Is MOH overvalued or undervalued?

At $207.26 the price sits above every lens we ran. We don't call MOH overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.

What discount rate is used for MOH?

A WACC of 8.0% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.

Is Molina Healthcare stock undervalued?

TickerWorth's fair-value range for Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) is $197.34 – $202.36 against a market price of $207.26. Priced above our range. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.

Molina Healthcare (MOH) DCF valuation and fair value

Our fair-value range for Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) is $197.34 – $202.36, built on a 8.0% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.

What growth is priced into Molina Healthcare stock?

no growth rate up to 300%/yr justifies the price under these economics This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $207.26. A model estimate, not investment advice.

Molina Healthcare (MOH) insider trading

We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH). Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.

MOH · Intrinsic value

Is Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) overvalued or undervalued?

Name: Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) DCF intrinsic value
Creator: TickerWorth

As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth publishes a fair-value range of $197.34 – $202.36 for Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH), against the delayed market price of $207.26: priced above our range. It is a range, not a single number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.

Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from a hand-researched model · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made

Open full MOH analysis

What is MOH worth?

Fair-value range: $197.34 – $202.36; A range by design: peer multiples and our researched mid-cycle DCF.
Market price: $207.26
Gap to fair value: —
Verdict: Priced above our range

Price as of 19 Oct 2026, 17:04 UTC · Prices are delayed.We publish this company as a range by design, not because our valuation lenses disagree, and we do not collapse it to a single number. We do not call it over- or undervalued from a range.

Fair-value range against the delayed market price: Priced above our range.

Reverse DCF: no growth rate up to 300%/yr justifies the price under these economics

What is MOH's TickerWorth Score?

C49/100

Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses

Compared with Healthcare companies in US

Its strongest point: looks cheap on the numbers. Its weakest: growth is slow or negative.

Value · 78 of 100
Cheaper than 78% of Healthcare companies in US
Price vs worth · 47 of 100
Quality · 25 of 100
More profitable than 25% of Healthcare companies in US
Financial health · 58 of 100
Financially stronger than 58% of Healthcare companies in US
Growth · 10 of 100
Growing faster than 10% of Healthcare companies in US
Momentum · 68 of 100
Outperformed 68% of Healthcare companies in US over the past year

Confidence: High confidence · Scored 19 Oct 2026, 17:04 UTC

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Where the numbers come from

Hand-researched model

What the modeller flagged

TERMINAL VALUE IS ~84% OF ENTERPRISE VALUE — well above the 75% line. 2026-2027 are depressed, so the five explicit years carry only ~16% of the answer; this is almost entirely a bet on what a normal Molina earns from 2030 on. The honest output is the range (~$113 to ~$419 across the sensitivity grid), not the cent.
THE MARGIN PATH IS THE MODEL. Every 0.5 point on the 2028-2030 margin is worth ~$62/share on a $197 value. Stalling at 2027's 1.65% gives ~$84; a return to 2024's 4.2% by 2030 gives ~$385. Today's price needs the margin to reach ~2.57% by 2030 — about what the model assumes.
MANAGEMENT HAS MISSED BADLY AND RECENTLY. 2025 adjusted EPS was guided to $21.50-$22.50 in July 2025 and came in at $11.03; the July 2026 raise hid a $1.50/share Marketplace cut. The 2027-2029 targets (adjusted EPS ~$25 in 2029, premium $64B) are used only as a ceiling here, not as the forecast.
YEAR-1 FCF (~$342M) VS FY2025 REPORTED FCF (-$636M) — a gap far past the 20% line, and of opposite sign. FY2025 cash flow was crushed by Medicaid risk-corridor settlements and tax timing (Q4 2025 release) and is after ~$145M of after-tax interest an unlevered model excludes. TTM free cash flow to June 2026 was ~$271M. Molina's operating cash flow swings by hundreds of millions on government settlement timing; no single year is a clean anchor.
MEDICAID POLICY IS THE BIG UNKNOWN. ~79% of 2026 premium is Medicaid. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act's work requirements, six-monthly redeterminations and cost sharing for the expansion population phase in from 2027 (10-Q); HHS's 2025 Marketplace Program Integrity rule shortens open enrollment from 2027 and shrinks that book too. The model shaves ~1 point off 2027 growth for this; a deeper enrollment loss would hit Years 2-4.
NEW-CONTRACT RISK RUNS BOTH WAYS. Florida CMS (Q4 2026), Georgia, Texas STAR+CHIP and Illinois (2027) are in the revenue path; new contracts typically start at high medical cost ratios (Florida's start-up loss is guided at $1.50/share). Lost re-procurements (Virginia in 2026) and contract protests are not modelled beyond what management has disclosed.
A NEGATIVE-REVENUE YEAR TRIGGERS THE RANGE DISPLAY. Year 1 is guided at -2.0% because Molina is shrinking Marketplace and lost Virginia; it is not rounded to zero. Entering 0% instead would add only ~$4/share.

Why MOH gets a range, not one number

At a recent price of $207.26, Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) sits above every lens we ran: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $197.34 and $202.36 per share. For a cyclical we value through the cycle we publish a range only (peer multiples and our researched mid-cycle DCF): where in the cycle the business sits decides where in that range it lands, and a single figure would claim we know that precisely. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.

Read the full reasoning

The valuation discounts Molina Healthcare, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 8.0%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 84% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, MOH's modeled DCF value ranges from about $113.28 to $419.13 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Molina Healthcare, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of MOH's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

Every input behind MOH's DCF

Input	Value	Source
Base-year revenueMolina Healthcare FY2025 10-K (accession 0001179929-26-000005, filed 2026-02-10): GAAP total revenue $45,426M = premium revenue $43,052M + premium tax revenue $1,863M + investment income $420M + other $91M (Q4 2025 Ex-99.1, accession 0001179929-26-000002). Molina, like UnitedHealth, reports investment income INSIDE revenue, so it stays in the operating forecast here — the regulated float that earns it is NOT counted as cash in the bridge (see net_debt). Premium tax revenue is a pass-through (an equal premium tax expense sits in operating costs); it is kept because management guides total revenue including it, and it only dilutes the margin percentage, not EBIT dollars. FY2025 grew 11.7% on FY2024's $40,650M on acquisitions (ConnectiCare), rate and new contracts. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 total revenue $21,670M, -4.0% on H1 2025's $22,574M (Q2 2026 Ex-99.1, accession 0001179929-26-000036) — membership fell from 5.75M to 4.93M year over year as Molina shrank Marketplace (690K to 283K) and lost Virginia Medicaid.	$45,426,000,000	Molina Healthcare FY2025 10-K (accession 0001179929-26-000005, filed 2026-02-10): GAAP total revenue $45,426M = premium revenue $43,052M + premium tax revenue $1,863M + investment income $420M + other $91M (Q4 2025 Ex-99.1, accession 0001179929-26-000002). Molina, like UnitedHealth, reports investment income INSIDE revenue, so it stays in the operating forecast here — the regulated float that earns it is NOT counted as cash in the bridge (see net_debt). Premium tax revenue is a pass-through (an equal premium tax expense sits in operating costs); it is kept because management guides total revenue including it, and it only dilutes the margin percentage, not EBIT dollars. FY2025 grew 11.7% on FY2024's $40,650M on acquisitions (ConnectiCare), rate and new contracts. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 total revenue $21,670M, -4.0% on H1 2025's $22,574M (Q2 2026 Ex-99.1, accession 0001179929-26-000036) — membership fell from 5.75M to 4.93M year over year as Molina shrank Marketplace (690K to 283K) and lost Virginia Medicaid.
Base EBIT marginMolina Healthcare FY2025 10-K (accession 0001179929-26-000005) + XBRL OperatingIncomeLoss history: EBIT = GAAP operating income $781M (= pretax $589M + interest $192M) / $45,426M = 1.72%. Includes investment income ($420M), all intangible amortization ($91M) and ~$1.04/share of acquisition-related costs. A collapse year: the medical care ratio rose to 91.7% from 89.1%, Q4 2025 was a $162M operating LOSS on ~$2.00/share of retroactive California Medicaid premium adjustments plus Medicare and Marketplace cost pressure (Q4 2025 Ex-99.1). HISTORY ON THE SAME BASIS (XBRL OperatingIncomeLoss / Revenues): 2019 6.2%, 2020 5.6%, 2021 3.7%, 2022 3.7% (real-estate impairment year), 2023 4.6%, 2024 4.2%. Management's own figure: adjusted pretax margin averaged ~4.5% 2018-2024 (Investor Day slide 19). CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 operating income $228M / $21,670M = 1.05%, including a $93M MAPD intangible impairment (1.48% without it).	1.7%	Molina Healthcare FY2025 10-K (accession 0001179929-26-000005) + XBRL OperatingIncomeLoss history: EBIT = GAAP operating income $781M (= pretax $589M + interest $192M) / $45,426M = 1.72%. Includes investment income ($420M), all intangible amortization ($91M) and ~$1.04/share of acquisition-related costs. A collapse year: the medical care ratio rose to 91.7% from 89.1%, Q4 2025 was a $162M operating LOSS on ~$2.00/share of retroactive California Medicaid premium adjustments plus Medicare and Marketplace cost pressure (Q4 2025 Ex-99.1). HISTORY ON THE SAME BASIS (XBRL OperatingIncomeLoss / Revenues): 2019 6.2%, 2020 5.6%, 2021 3.7%, 2022 3.7% (real-estate impairment year), 2023 4.6%, 2024 4.2%. Management's own figure: adjusted pretax margin averaged ~4.5% 2018-2024 (Investor Day slide 19). CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 operating income $228M / $21,670M = 1.05%, including a $93M MAPD intangible impairment (1.48% without it).
Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast	-2% → 10% → 7% → 6% → 5%	ESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rateUS 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model in this tracker.	5.2%	US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model in this tracker.
Betayfinance published 5Y-monthly beta (0.784), 2026-10-05: Published 5Y-monthly beta 0.784, used as published. It sits a little above the managed-care median on the same feed (ELV 0.711, UNH 0.615, HUM 0.744, CVS 0.596, CI 0.298, CNC 1.13), which fits a pure-play government insurer with thin margins and BB-rated debt. Not normalized. Cost of equity 5.24% + 0.784 × 5.0% = 9.16%. A beta of 1.0 would cost ~$36/share; the price is consistent with a beta of ~0.80 on this model's cash flows.	0.78	yfinance published 5Y-monthly beta (0.784), 2026-10-05: Published 5Y-monthly beta 0.784, used as published. It sits a little above the managed-care median on the same feed (ELV 0.711, UNH 0.615, HUM 0.744, CVS 0.596, CI 0.298, CNC 1.13), which fits a pure-play government insurer with thin margins and BB-rated debt. Not normalized. Cost of equity 5.24% + 0.784 × 5.0% = 9.16%. A beta of 1.0 would cost ~$36/share; the price is consistent with a beta of ~0.80 on this model's cash flows.
Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), identical to the UNH and ELV models. Medicaid and Medicare enrollment and spending grow with an ageing population, but state budgets and federal Medicaid reform cap what a government contractor can outgrow. 3.0% adds ~$24/share; the price is consistent with ~2.4% on this model's cash flows. Must remain < WACC of ~8.05%.	2.5%	ESTIMATEAssumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), identical to the UNH and ELV models. Medicaid and Medicare enrollment and spending grow with an ageing population, but state budgets and federal Medicaid reform cap what a government contractor can outgrow. 3.0% adds ~$24/share; the price is consistent with ~2.4% on this model's cash flows. Must remain < WACC of ~8.05%.
Diluted sharesMolina Healthcare Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0001179929-26-000039, filed 2026-07-23): Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 51.3M (H1 51.2M; FY2025 52.9M; 2026 guidance assumes 51.1M). The count fell from 57.7M in 2024 after $500M of 2025 buybacks; there were none in H1 2026 and $500M of authorization remains through 2026-12-31. NOTE: shares outstanding on the 10-Q cover were ~52.2M at 2026-07-17, ~0.9M above the weighted diluted count (vesting equity awards); using 52.2M would cut ~$3/share.	51M	Molina Healthcare Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0001179929-26-000039, filed 2026-07-23): Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 51.3M (H1 51.2M; FY2025 52.9M; 2026 guidance assumes 51.1M). The count fell from 57.7M in 2024 after $500M of 2025 buybacks; there were none in H1 2026 and $500M of authorization remains through 2026-12-31. NOTE: shares outstanding on the 10-Q cover were ~52.2M at 2026-07-17, ~0.9M above the weighted diluted count (vesting equity awards); using 52.2M would cut ~$3/share.
Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 17:04 UTC	$207.26	Delayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 17:04 UTC

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What does Molina Healthcare, Inc. do?

What does it do?

Molina Healthcare, Inc. provides managed healthcare services to low-income families and individuals under the Medicaid and Medicare programs and through the state insurance marketplaces in the United States. It operates in the Healthcare Plans industry (Healthcare sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 19,000 people.

How does it make money?

The business turns $42.5B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $1 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 1.4%), after a 8% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, -0.0% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.

Is it financially healthy?

Financially it looks solid: carries modest debt (0.9× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (1.7× current ratio), and is currently lossmaking.

MOH insider trading

We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Molina Healthcare, Inc.. Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.

Common questions

What is MOH's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) between $197.34 and $202.36 per share, versus a market price of $207.26. For a cyclical we value through the cycle we publish a range only (peer multiples and our researched mid-cycle DCF): where in the cycle the business sits decides where in that range it lands, and a single figure would claim we know that precisely.
Is MOH overvalued or undervalued?
At $207.26 the price sits above every lens we ran. We don't call MOH overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for MOH?
A WACC of 8.0% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is Molina Healthcare stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) is $197.34 – $202.36 against a market price of $207.26. Priced above our range. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
Molina Healthcare (MOH) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) is $197.34 – $202.36, built on a 8.0% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into Molina Healthcare stock?
no growth rate up to 300%/yr justifies the price under these economics This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $207.26. A model estimate, not investment advice.
Molina Healthcare (MOH) insider trading
We have no recent SEC Form 4 insider filings on file for Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH). Form 4 covers US-listed companies only.