MOS · Intrinsic value
Is The Mosaic Company (MOS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 19, 2026, TickerWorth's valuation lenses put The Mosaic Company (MOS) at $13.03 – $56.97, too broad a range to say where the delayed market price of $18.82 sits in it, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
What is MOS worth?
- Fair-value range
- $13.03 – $56.97
- Market price
- $18.82
- Gap to fair value
- —
- Verdict
- Too wide to call
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of −2.8% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 1.3% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is MOS's TickerWorth Score?
A weaker business than almost every company
Compared with Basic Materials companies in US
Its strongest point: trades below our estimate of what it's worth. Its weakest: profitability is weak.
- Value · 68 of 100
Cheaper than 68% of Basic Materials companies in US
- Price vs worth · 100 of 100
- Quality · 10 of 100
More profitable than 10% of Basic Materials companies in US
- Financial health · 24 of 100
Financially stronger than 24% of Basic Materials companies in US
- Growth · 1 of 100
Growing faster than almost none of the Basic Materials companies in US
- Momentum · 3 of 100
Outperformed 3% of Basic Materials companies in US over the past year
Confidence: Medium confidence · Scored
Get the Undervalued Company of the Week.
Why MOS gets a range, not one number
At a recent price of $18.82, The Mosaic Company (MOS) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $13.03 and $56.97 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
The valuation discounts The Mosaic Company's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.5%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 80% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly -2.8% annual revenue growth for MOS. Our base case instead compounds to about 1.3% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in slower growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, MOS's modeled DCF value ranges from about $11.88 to $66.89 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what The Mosaic Company would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of MOS's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind MOS's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueLive feed — totalRevenue (TTM) | $12,247,900,000 |
| Base EBIT marginComputed — trailing operatingMargins, held roughly flat | 2.0% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | -1% → -0% → 1% → 3% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 5.1% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 0.92 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesLive feed — sharesOutstanding | 318M |
| Market priceDelayed quote · as of 2026-10-19 13:15 UTC | $18.82 |
Change MOS's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does The Mosaic Company do?
What does it do?
The Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. It operates in three segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. It operates in the Agricultural Inputs industry (Basic Materials sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 13,000 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $12.2B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $0 is left as operating profit (operating margin of -0.1%), after a 11% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, -5.2% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks mixed: carries modest debt (0.5× equity), can just cover its short-term bills (1.3× current ratio), and is currently lossmaking.
Who at MOS filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Sonya C | Director | Grant / award | $1,607.45 | Form 4 for Little Sonya C (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Precourt Walter F. III | SVP - Chief Admin Officer | Open-market sale | $508,760.00 | Form 4 for Precourt Walter F. III (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Kuzenko Jody Lynne | Director | Option exercise | — | Form 4 for Kuzenko Jody Lynne (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Shanahan Kathleen M | Director | Option exercise | — | Form 4 for Shanahan Kathleen M (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Gitzel Timothy S. | Director | Option exercise | — | Form 4 for Gitzel Timothy S. (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Watkins Gretchen H | Director | Option exercise | — | Form 4 for Watkins Gretchen H (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is MOS's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's valuation lenses put The Mosaic Company (MOS) between $13.03 and $56.97 per share, versus a market price of $18.82. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value, so we publish the range.
Is MOS overvalued or undervalued?
At $18.82 the price sits inside a range too wide to call either way. We don't call MOS overvalued or undervalued from a range this wide. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for MOS?
A WACC of 7.5% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is The Mosaic stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair-value range for The Mosaic Company (MOS) is $13.03 – $56.97 against a market price of $18.82. Too wide to call. We publish a range here, not one number, so we do not call it over- or undervalued. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
The Mosaic (MOS) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair-value range for The Mosaic Company (MOS) is $13.03 – $56.97, built on a 7.5% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into The Mosaic stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of −2.8% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 1.3% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $18.82. A model estimate, not investment advice.
The Mosaic (MOS) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for The Mosaic Company (MOS): Little Sonya C, Director, grant / award on 2026-09-23. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Other ways into the coverage
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.