NFG · Intrinsic value
Is National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) overvalued or undervalued?
National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) trades at the delayed market price of $79.92 a share. That price already implies revenue growth of 2.8% a year for 5 years. TickerWorth's fair value is $90.51 a share (priced within our range of $62.04 – $110.02). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range.
Model by Miraaj Patel · generated from SEC filings and market data · Updated Oct 19, 2026 · How these pages are made
Is NFG fairly valued?
- Fair value
- $90.51
- Market price
- $79.92
- Upside to fair value
- +13.3%
- Verdict
- Priced within our range of $62.04 – $110.02
Reverse DCF: Today's price implies revenue growth of 2.8% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 3.5% a year on average over the same horizon.
What is NFG's TickerWorth Score?
Middle of the pack — real strengths and real weaknesses
Compared with Energy companies in US
Its strongest point: a profitable, high-quality business. Its weakest: recent price trend has been weak.
- Value · 46 of 100
Cheaper than 46% of Energy companies in US
- Price vs worth · 61 of 100
- Quality · 73 of 100
More profitable than 73% of Energy companies in US
- Financial health · 57 of 100
Financially stronger than 57% of Energy companies in US
- Growth · 22 of 100
Growing faster than 22% of Energy companies in US
- Momentum · 8 of 100
Outperformed 8% of Energy companies in US over the past year
Confidence: High confidence · Scored
Get the Undervalued Company of the Week.
NFG DCF valuation, input by input
TickerWorth's fair value for National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) is $90.51 a share, against the delayed market price of $79.92 (priced within our range of $62.04 – $110.02). We do not call it over- or undervalued from inside our range. It is a model estimate, and every input behind it is sourced below. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
Read the full reasoning
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values NFG at about $87.99 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts National Fuel Gas Company's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 6.2%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 83% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 2.8% annual revenue growth for NFG. Our base case instead compounds to about 3.5% a year over the same forecast, so the market's implied growth is broadly in line with our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, NFG's modeled DCF value ranges from about $43.80 to $309.85 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what National Fuel Gas Company would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of NFG's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
Every input behind NFG's DCF
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Base-year revenueNATIONAL FUEL GAS CO FY2025 10-K (accession 0000070145-25-000039): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 full year. | $2,219,120,000 |
| Base EBIT marginNATIONAL FUEL GAS CO FY2025 10-K (accession 0000070145-25-000039): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss 813,459,000 / revenue 2,219,117,000 = 36.66%, FY2025. | 36.7% |
| Forecast revenue growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast | 3% → 3% → 3% → 4% → 4% |
| Risk-free rateLive feed — US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) | 4.8% |
| BetaLive feed — yfinance, 5-year monthly beta vs the S&P 500 (clamped to 0.4–2.5) | 0.40 |
| Terminal growthESTIMATEAssumption — TickerWorth house default 2.5%, held below WACC | 2.5% |
| Diluted sharesNATIONAL FUEL GAS CO FY2025 10-K (accession 0000070145-25-000039): WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding = 91,227,473 shares, FY2025. | 91M |
| Market priceBackup price feed · as of 2026-10-19 12:30 UTC | $79.92 |
Change NFG's assumptions
The discount-rate dial and the editable model
ProChange growth, margin and WACC yourself — Pro (7-day free trial, card required).
What does National Fuel Gas Company do?
What does it do?
National Fuel Gas Company operates as a diversified energy company. It operates through Integrated Upstream and Gathering, Pipeline and Storage, and Utility segments. It operates in the Oil & Gas Integrated industry (Energy sector), headquartered in United States. The company employs roughly 2,322 people.
How does it make money?
The business turns $2.5B in annual revenue into profit. Out of every $100 of sales, about $40 is left as operating profit (operating margin of 40.1%), after a 63% gross margin on the products/services it sells. After all costs, taxes and interest, 26.9% of revenue becomes bottom-line net profit.
Is it financially healthy?
Financially it looks mixed: carries modest debt (0.9× equity), comfortably covers its short-term bills (3.2× current ratio), and is currently profitable.
Who at NFG filed insider trades?
| Date | Insider | Relationship | What happened | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TANSKI RONALD J | Director | Grant / award | $43,788.53 | Form 4 for TANSKI RONALD J (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| SHAW JEFFREY W | Director | Grant / award | $43,788.53 | Form 4 for SHAW JEFFREY W (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| JAGGERS JOSEPH N | Director | Grant / award | $43,788.53 | Form 4 for JAGGERS JOSEPH N (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| BAUMANN BARBARA M | Director | Grant / award | $43,788.53 | Form 4 for BAUMANN BARBARA M (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Silverstein Timothy J | Treasurer & CFO | Grant / award | — | Form 4 for Silverstein Timothy J (opens sec.gov in a new tab) | |
| Silverstein Timothy J | Treasurer & CFO | Shares withheld (tax) | $9,048.17 | Form 4 for Silverstein Timothy J (opens sec.gov in a new tab) |
A disclosure, not a signal to trade. Source: SEC EDGAR (Form 4). Older filings and the 90-day buying-and-selling read are part of Pro. See plans
Common questions
What is NFG's intrinsic value?
TickerWorth's blended fair value for National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) is $90.51 per share, versus a market price of $79.92 (priced within our range of $62.04 – $110.02).
Is NFG overvalued or undervalued?
Priced within our range of $62.04 – $110.02 at $79.92. We don't call NFG overvalued or undervalued from a range. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
What discount rate is used for NFG?
A WACC of 6.2% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
Is National Fuel Gas stock undervalued?
TickerWorth's fair value for National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) is $90.51 against a market price of $79.92. Our read: Priced within our range of $62.04 – $110.02. This is a model estimate, not investment advice.
National Fuel Gas (NFG) DCF valuation and fair value
Our fair value for National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) is $90.51, built on a 6.2% discount rate (WACC) and 2.5% terminal growth. It blends our discounted-cash-flow model with other valuation lenses. Every assumption is listed on this page with its source.
What growth is priced into National Fuel Gas stock?
Today's price implies revenue growth of 2.8% a year for 5 years; our model assumes 3.5% a year on average over the same horizon. This is a reverse DCF: it holds our cash-flow model's other inputs and solves for the revenue growth that makes the model equal today's price of $79.92. A model estimate, not investment advice.
National Fuel Gas (NFG) insider trading
The most recent insider filing (SEC Form 4) for National Fuel Gas Company (NFG): TANSKI RONALD J, Director, grant / award on 2026-10-01. The latest filings are listed on this page. A disclosure, not a signal to trade.
Not investment advice. TickerWorth Score is a model output.
Educational tool. Every output reflects the assumptions shown — not a prediction and not investment advice. TickerWorth is not a licensed investment adviser, and these figures are estimates from public filings and market data that can be wrong.